I'm not sure if this question has been asked anywhere else before, but what happens if a hurricane gets pulled northward by a trough only to miss said trough, and has high pressure build above it afterward? Is it still able to move, and if so, where would it be most likely to go?
Part of the reason I'm asking is because some models (e.g. Euro, quite a few EPS ensembles, a few GEFS ensembles) have been showing Tammy missing the trough and having high pressure build above it.
Hurricanes and High Pressure?
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
- ThunderForce
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 158
- Age: 25
- Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2022 6:20 pm
- Location: Florida Panhandle
Hurricanes and High Pressure?
0 likes
Please refer to the NWS, NHC, SPC or a professional meteorologist for information and decision making during storms.
- ElectricStorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 4593
- Age: 23
- Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
- Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK
Re: Hurricanes and High Pressure?
If it misses the trough and the high builds back over, it'll start moving west again, or in some cases even SW. An example here would be Florence, models originally had a recurve but it ended up missing the turn and turned back west as a result. You can see in the middle there where it started to turn north a bit before continuing west
4 likes
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Boomer Sooner!
Boomer Sooner!
- ThunderForce
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 158
- Age: 25
- Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2022 6:20 pm
- Location: Florida Panhandle
Re: Hurricanes and High Pressure?
ElectricStorm wrote:If it misses the trough and the high builds back over, it'll start moving west again, or in some cases even SW. An example here would be Florence, models originally had a recurve but it ended up missing the turn and turned back west as a result. You can see in the middle there where it started to turn north a bit before continuing west
https://i.imgur.com/7IfPIFg.png
Thanks for the information!
One other thing I'm curious about. What if there's high pressure to the west as well, like this for example? Would it still try to move westward, or would it be more likely to stall?
0 likes
Please refer to the NWS, NHC, SPC or a professional meteorologist for information and decision making during storms.
Re: Hurricanes and High Pressure?
ThunderForce wrote:ElectricStorm wrote:If it misses the trough and the high builds back over, it'll start moving west again, or in some cases even SW. An example here would be Florence, models originally had a recurve but it ended up missing the turn and turned back west as a result. You can see in the middle there where it started to turn north a bit before continuing west
https://i.imgur.com/7IfPIFg.png
Thanks for the information!
One other thing I'm curious about. What if there's high pressure to the west as well, like this for example? Would it still try to move westward, or would it be more likely to stall?
https://i.postimg.cc/L83chwN5/ecmwf-mslpa-watl-33.png
Hurricanes are not steered by surface winds, look at the 500mb height anomalies for a better view of steering influences
1 likes
Kendall -> SLO -> PBC
Memorable Storms: Katrina (for its Florida landfall...) Wilma Matthew Irma
Memorable Storms: Katrina (for its Florida landfall...) Wilma Matthew Irma
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: bird, Steve, StPeteMike and 264 guests