Hurricanes and High Pressure?

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
ThunderForce
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 158
Age: 25
Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2022 6:20 pm
Location: Florida Panhandle

Hurricanes and High Pressure?

#1 Postby ThunderForce » Fri Oct 20, 2023 6:06 pm

I'm not sure if this question has been asked anywhere else before, but what happens if a hurricane gets pulled northward by a trough only to miss said trough, and has high pressure build above it afterward? Is it still able to move, and if so, where would it be most likely to go?

Part of the reason I'm asking is because some models (e.g. Euro, quite a few EPS ensembles, a few GEFS ensembles) have been showing Tammy missing the trough and having high pressure build above it.
0 likes   
Please refer to the NWS, NHC, SPC or a professional meteorologist for information and decision making during storms.

User avatar
ElectricStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4542
Age: 23
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: Hurricanes and High Pressure?

#2 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Oct 20, 2023 6:24 pm

If it misses the trough and the high builds back over, it'll start moving west again, or in some cases even SW. An example here would be Florence, models originally had a recurve but it ended up missing the turn and turned back west as a result. You can see in the middle there where it started to turn north a bit before continuing west
Image
4 likes   
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.

Boomer Sooner!

User avatar
ThunderForce
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 158
Age: 25
Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2022 6:20 pm
Location: Florida Panhandle

Re: Hurricanes and High Pressure?

#3 Postby ThunderForce » Fri Oct 20, 2023 6:33 pm

ElectricStorm wrote:If it misses the trough and the high builds back over, it'll start moving west again, or in some cases even SW. An example here would be Florence, models originally had a recurve but it ended up missing the turn and turned back west as a result. You can see in the middle there where it started to turn north a bit before continuing west
https://i.imgur.com/7IfPIFg.png

Thanks for the information!

One other thing I'm curious about. What if there's high pressure to the west as well, like this for example? Would it still try to move westward, or would it be more likely to stall?
Image
0 likes   
Please refer to the NWS, NHC, SPC or a professional meteorologist for information and decision making during storms.

User avatar
Ubuntwo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1089
Age: 30
Joined: Thu Oct 05, 2017 10:41 pm

Re: Hurricanes and High Pressure?

#4 Postby Ubuntwo » Fri Oct 20, 2023 7:09 pm

ThunderForce wrote:
ElectricStorm wrote:If it misses the trough and the high builds back over, it'll start moving west again, or in some cases even SW. An example here would be Florence, models originally had a recurve but it ended up missing the turn and turned back west as a result. You can see in the middle there where it started to turn north a bit before continuing west
https://i.imgur.com/7IfPIFg.png

Thanks for the information!

One other thing I'm curious about. What if there's high pressure to the west as well, like this for example? Would it still try to move westward, or would it be more likely to stall?
https://i.postimg.cc/L83chwN5/ecmwf-mslpa-watl-33.png

Hurricanes are not steered by surface winds, look at the 500mb height anomalies for a better view of steering influences
1 likes   
Kendall -> SLO -> PBC

Memorable Storms: Katrina (for its Florida landfall...) Wilma Matthew Irma


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google Adsense [Bot], Stormybajan and 246 guests