Hybrid low near the Iberian Peninsula

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Vince_and_Grace_fan
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 315
Joined: Thu Nov 03, 2016 9:25 am
Location: Szombathely (Hungary)

Hybrid low near the Iberian Peninsula

#1 Postby Vince_and_Grace_fan » Sun Oct 22, 2023 4:29 am

In the night hours, the low currently approaching the Iberian Peninsula has developed more organized convection, and it looks qiute subtropical right now. ASCAT indicated maximum winds of 40-45 kt in the last evening.

Image

Image
3 likes   

User avatar
ThunderForce
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 158
Age: 25
Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2022 6:20 pm
Location: Florida Panhandle

Re: Hybrid low near the Iberian Peninsula

#2 Postby ThunderForce » Sun Oct 22, 2023 4:40 am

If this ended up getting named by the NHC, it would be named Vince... which is interesting, given 2005 also had a Vince around the same area in October.
3 likes   
Please refer to the NWS, NHC, SPC or a professional meteorologist for information and decision making during storms.

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7286
Age: 38
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: Hybrid low near the Iberian Peninsula

#3 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Oct 22, 2023 9:17 am

Convection near the core + well defined low level circ. I'd say if it were to lose its frontal structure that this would easily be a subtropical storm.
2 likes   

User avatar
Vince_and_Grace_fan
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 315
Joined: Thu Nov 03, 2016 9:25 am
Location: Szombathely (Hungary)

Re: Hybrid low near the Iberian Peninsula

#4 Postby Vince_and_Grace_fan » Sun Oct 22, 2023 1:39 pm

The cyclone made landfall near Faro around 15 UTC and its structure degraded a bit by that time, however, the Spanish weather radar still showed well-defined curved band on the north side and the core was also visible over the sea before the landfall.
The pressure decreased to 988 hPa in Faro with maximum gust of 83 km/h (45 kt) - the sustained wind data were not available -, also it fell more than 80 mm rain from the low. https://www.infoclimat.fr/observations-meteo/temps-reel/faro-aeroporto/08554.html

Image

Image
2 likes   

User avatar
HurricaneEnzo
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 723
Joined: Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:18 pm
Location: Newport, NC (Hurricane Alley)

Re: Hybrid low near the Iberian Peninsula

#5 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Tue Oct 24, 2023 1:56 pm

I'm gonna go ahead and predict this gets an update postseason. Was at least briefly a weak STS possibly borderline TS.
0 likes   
Bertha 96' - Fran 96' - Bonnie 98' - Dennis 99' - Floyd 99' - Isabel 03' - Alex 04' - Ophelia 05' - Irene 11' - Arthur 14' - Matthew 16' - Florence 18' - Dorian 19' - Isaias 20' (countless other tropical storms and Hurricane swipes)

I am not a Professional Met just an enthusiast. Get your weather forecasts from the Pros!

User avatar
AJC3
Admin
Admin
Posts: 3873
Age: 60
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:04 pm
Location: West Melbourne, Florida
Contact:

Re: Hybrid low near the Iberian Peninsula

#6 Postby AJC3 » Tue Oct 24, 2023 2:22 pm

HurricaneEnzo wrote:I'm gonna go ahead and predict this gets an update postseason. Was at least briefly a weak STS possibly borderline TS.


I'm almost 100 percent sure that it won't be upgraded to a STS, let alone a TS. I went back and looked at the hourly surface analyses on the Meteocentre web site leading up to the time of landfall. The cyclone never shed it's frontal structure. Surface temps were in the lower 20s (C) over southern Spain, south of the warm front, while they were in the lower to mid teens over Portugal. That converts into about a 12-18F temperature gradient, which is embedded in the middle of and elongated pressure trough, right where you'd expect the warm front to be (granted, METARs suggest that the LLCC is much closer to the Iberian coast than the analysis. Additionaly, it may have occluded prior to landfall (I don't have the actual frontal analyses to look at), however, based on satellite imagery it didn't develop warm seclusion. Moreover, the central convection assumed the form of a baroclnic leaf along the system's northern flank pretty quickly.

It can be argued pretty easily that the low had hybrid characteristics, but at best remained a frontal hybrid.

Image
3 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 247 guests