Possible Development in the Central / SW Caribbean (Is Invest 97L)

[Category5Kaiju]

You know, for a strong El Nino year, a storm during November traveling through the Caribbean and crashing into Central America isn't something I really expected as being even remotely possible.

[Category5Kaiju]

Thinking nothing really comes out of this. Even the GFS is backing off. Maybe a weak short lived tropical depression but thinking that’s about it. Will have to wait till next year at this point for anything of significant caliber.

I think after watching what happened with Hurricane Otis, I'm a bit wary of really looking too extensively into models (especially regarding strengths).

The thing is, the GEFS ensembles still show many notable members, so I'm thinking it's best to watch and see what happens, especially when a clear center/circulation forms.

[Weathertracker96]

Thinking nothing really comes out of this. Even the GFS is backing off. Maybe a weak short lived tropical depression but thinking that’s about it. Will have to wait till next year at this point for anything of significant caliber.

I think after watching what happened with Hurricane Otis, I'm a bit wary of really looking too extensively into models (especially regarding strengths).

The thing is, the GEFS ensembles still show many notable members, so I'm thinking it's best to watch and see what happens, especially when a clear center/circulation forms.

I agree. Even some of the GEFS still want to turn this north. This is something to watch and having a center will help as well as you said.

[cycloneye]

Eastern Caribbean Sea:
A trough of low pressure over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing
a large area of showers and thunderstorms that is beginning to show
signs of organization. This system is expected to move westward
during the next several days, and environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional development. A tropical depression is
likely to form by the latter part of this week as the system enters
the central or southwestern Caribbean Sea. Regardless of
development, this system has the potential to produce heavy rains
over portions of Central America towards the end of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/adrianlinares28/status/1719142466014593422

[wxman57]

Thinking nothing really comes out of this. Even the GFS is backing off. Maybe a weak short lived tropical depression but thinking that’s about it. Will have to wait till next year at this point for anything of significant caliber.

I think after watching what happened with Hurricane Otis, I'm a bit wary of really looking too extensively into models (especially regarding strengths).

The thing is, the GEFS ensembles still show many notable members, so I'm thinking it's best to watch and see what happens, especially when a clear center/circulation forms.

I wouldn't discount models in the Atlantic because a failure in the data-poor Pacific. There is plenty of data across the Caribbean. The more data, the better the models perform. Looks like a weak system moving into Nicaragua Saturday. Flooding threat. Zero chance of it reaching the Gulf.

[Blown Away]

Thinking nothing really comes out of this. Even the GFS is backing off. Maybe a weak short lived tropical depression but thinking that’s about it. Will have to wait till next year at this point for anything of significant caliber.

I think after watching what happened with Hurricane Otis, I'm a bit wary of really looking too extensively into models (especially regarding strengths).

The thing is, the GEFS ensembles still show many notable members, so I'm thinking it's best to watch and see what happens, especially when a clear center/circulation forms.

I wouldn't discount models in the Atlantic because a failure in the data-poor Pacific. There is plenty of data across the Caribbean. The more data, the better the models perform. Looks like a weak system moving into Nicaragua Saturday. Flooding threat. Zero chance of it reaching the Gulf.

Come on Wxman57, likely last system of 2023 for W Atlantic, you couldn’t give us maybe 5% chance??

[SFLcane]

I think after watching what happened with Hurricane Otis, I'm a bit wary of really looking too extensively into models (especially regarding strengths).

The thing is, the GEFS ensembles still show many notable members, so I'm thinking it's best to watch and see what happens, especially when a clear center/circulation forms.

I wouldn't discount models in the Atlantic because a failure in the data-poor Pacific. There is plenty of data across the Caribbean. The more data, the better the models perform. Looks like a weak system moving into Nicaragua Saturday. Flooding threat. Zero chance of it reaching the Gulf.

Come on Wxman57, likely last system of 2023 for W Atlantic, you couldn’t give us maybe 5% chance??

While I agree highly unlikely to get into the gulf you cant discard a brush with South Florida this early in the game.

[cycloneye]

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