Possible Development in the Central / SW Caribbean (Is Invest 97L)

[cycloneye]

This is what the models mainly GFS operational / ensembles and European ensembles develop.

A broad area of low pressure could form in a few days over the
central or southwestern Caribbean Sea. Gradual development
thereafter is possible while the system moves generally westward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[SFLcane]

06z ensembles..

[jlauderdal]

06z ensembles..

https://i.postimg.cc/hGFdMB9K/IMG-7820.gif

The last of the US threat for this season, going to be really tough to get anything North of Cuba with the setup that is forecast.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1718606603664933002

[cycloneye]

This is the complex area now east of the Windward Islands that will move west into the Caribbean Sea and from there we will see how fast or slow it moves for development chances down the road.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TheSteveCop/status/1718612092368921082

[Category5Kaiju]

It's still early to know for sure what's going to happen, but because it's November, it's the time of the year when that lack of ridging that has kept so many MDR storms away from land will now become a possible issue as whatever forms in the Caribbean turns north and affects some landmass. Keeping an eye out here for sure.

[gatorcane]

Definitely a strong GEFS signal which also has support from the EPS. I expect development chances by the NHC will increase in the coming days but the threat to the U.S. remains quite low due to westerlies already entrenched over the Gulf and Florida. It could track into Central America or NE across Cuba though.

[zzzh]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1718618201913720971

[zzzh]

This is EPS run for Eta 3 days before it formed.

Current EC ensemble. Looks familiar
BTW EC seems to have a weak bias in central Caribbean.

[Blown Away]

06z GEFS active with many strong hurricanes…

[DunedinDave]

I do think something forms. However, I think the fronts starting to come down more regularly in the next few weeks should shield this from Fla. Thank goodness this didn’t set up a couple of weeks ago.

[Category5Kaiju]

I do think something forms. However, I think the fronts starting to come down more regularly in the next few weeks should shield this from Fla. Thank goodness this didn’t set up a couple of weeks ago.

Yeah I personally think it's reasonable to say that Florida has a somewhat low chance of being directly impacted by this; but Cuba and the Bahamas may need to watch out. Climatologically speaking, strong November hurricanes that curve northward like that tend to head northeast and impact regions in that direction (see Paloma, Michelle, and the 1932 Cuba hurricane as examples).

[cycloneye]

The 12z GFS run avoids CentralAmerica and goes strong while deviates to the NE thru Cuba and close to South Florida.

[jlauderdal]

The 12z GFS run avoids CentralAmerica and goes strong while deviates to the NE thru Cuba and close to South Florida.

Sheared on the way out but trending north

[ronjon]

Wouldn't take much deviation in current 12z GFS to produce a Wilma like track. Have lots of time to watch and wait.

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure could form in a few days over the
central or southwestern Caribbean Sea. Gradual development
thereafter is possible while the system moves generally westward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[Blown Away]

12z GEFS

[aspen]

The precursor disturbance is very large and broad on all the global models. If this verifies, I doubt we’ll get much out of it. Probably not enough time for it to consolidate before it runs into Central America and/or some of the islands, if it gets picked up north.

[cycloneye]

12z Euro operational has it moving to CentralAmerica as it has the ridge strong.