Possible Development in the Central / SW Caribbean (Is Invest 97L)

[Weathertracker96]

https://i.postimg.cc/Sxwh3nyC/lllll.gif

Seems like some of the ensembles have it surviving and not burying it to deep in CA. As someone mentioned earlier, once we get a LLC, that hopefully will help paint a clearer picture of this possible storm.

[cycloneye]

12z Euro moves the vorticity to EPAC and begins to develop there.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Having it slid on over to the Pacific and develop there would be better for everyone, if the high pressure is that strong, it would continue west and not even bother Mexico, they for sure do not need it.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/CraigSetzer/status/1719051479611244601

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1719054456736632863

[Blown Away]

[gatorcane]

12z Euro moves the vorticity to EPAC and begins to develop there.

https://i.imgur.com/hJQ97Fg.gif

Looks like a reasonable solution. The GFS has been really bad this year on genesis and this may be yet another case. It still can generate plenty of posts and discussion on the “what ifs” even though its long-range forecast rarely if ever verify.

[SFLcane]

12z Euro moves the vorticity to EPAC and begins to develop there.

https://i.imgur.com/hJQ97Fg.gif

Looks like a reasonable solution. The GFS has been really bad this year on genesis and this may be yet another case. It still can generate some discussion on “what ifs” even though its long-range forecast rarely if ever verify.

And so has the Euro...

That's we do here on S2K is discuss and discuss some more all the possibilites.

[SFLcane]

Convection increasing in the area during a time that this is typically a minimum diurnally.

[jlauderdal]

12z Euro moves the vorticity to EPAC and begins to develop there.

https://i.imgur.com/hJQ97Fg.gif

Looks like a reasonable solution. The GFS has been really bad this year on genesis and this may be yet another case. It still can generate some discussion on “what ifs” even though its long-range forecast rarely if ever verify.

And so has the Euro...

That's we do here on S2K is discuss and discuss some more all the possibilites.

It appears whatever direction it travels, there will be impressive development for november.

[DunedinDave]

The GFS is either gonna come out of this either looking like a million bucks or with all kinds of egg on their face. They continue to be on an island developing this into something meaningful…hell they have it almost as a cat 5!

[SFLcane]

Looks like a reasonable solution. The GFS has been really bad this year on genesis and this may be yet another case. It still can generate some discussion on “what ifs” even though its long-range forecast rarely if ever verify.

And so has the Euro...

That's we do here on S2K is discuss and discuss some more all the possibilites.

It appears whatever direction it travels, there will be impressive development for november.

Surely! Considering shear should be blasting through the caribbean in a strong enso. Still rememebr those twitter post back in july some claiming it would be another 2013. Ooops!

Back on topic

[ronjon]

Hope we get an INVEST soon as I'd like to see what the tropical models do with the disturbance.

[cycloneye]

[jlauderdal]

Only a handful of members have skin in the game at this point.

[CronkPSU]

https://i.imgur.com/BFMxE3n.gif

i figured after that crazy 12z GFS, i would wait until the wacky Happy Hour GFS finished before saying anything

[Iceresistance]

https://i.imgur.com/BFMxE3n.gif

i figured after that crazy 12z GFS, i would wait until the wacky Happy Hour GFS finished before saying anything

The 18z GFS has the same place as the 12z GFS, but MUCH weaker, for now...

[Teban54]

https://i.imgur.com/BFMxE3n.gif

i figured after that crazy 12z GFS, i would wait until the wacky Happy Hour GFS finished before saying anything

The 18z GFS has the same place as the 12z GFS, but MUCH weaker, for now...

18z's Nicaragua landfall is actually stronger than 12z (987 mb vs 997). In fact, for 12z 11/4, it has the same intensity as the (still bonkers) 06z GFS run, but the difference is in speed: 18z landfalls 6 hours from there, while 06z has 12-18 hours.

The crazy thing about 12z was that it lets the system hang around in NW Caribbean after reemerging to water where it bombs out, which isn't the case for 18z.

Regardless, the scenario on 18z still has potential to be a flooding disaster. FWIW, even though Hurricane Eta made landfall in Nicaragua, it "only" had 2 casualties and $178 million in monetary damage there. The impacts on Honduras (74 deaths, $5 billion) and Guatemala (53 deaths, $386 million) were much more severe, largely due to flooding.

[WiscoWx02]

Thinking nothing really comes out of this. Even the GFS is backing off. Maybe a weak short lived tropical depression but thinking that’s about it. Will have to wait till next year at this point for anything of significant caliber.

[Teban54]

Looks like it's taking shape.