Possible Development in the Central / SW Caribbean (Is Invest 97L)

[DunedinDave]

Two cold fronts expected to sweep through Florida—Wednesday and then next Thursday or Friday. So the only way I can see Fla hit by this is if something forms from the front this weekend and pulls north within a few days. Possible but I think Fla may be protected by the time of year. The front this week is expected to bring temps in low 50s near Tampa Bay, so it will def cool the waters in East Gulf.

[ChrisH-UK]

Here's the latest GFS run 06z, look like Nicaragua will be getting another storm.

[REDHurricane]

Here's the latest GFS run 06z, look like Nicaragua will be getting another storm.

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/8464/0mN1cl.gif [/url]

GFS ensemble is still split between the two solutions (west into Nicaragua/Honduras vs. recurve through Cuba/Bahamas/maybe south Florida) somewhat evenly, though all of the ensembles seem to be trending towards the western track over the past few runs. However, I think we're just going to have to wait until a LLC actually forms before the models can forecast this storm's path with any degree of certainty.

[cycloneye]

Here's the latest GFS run 06z, look like Nicaragua will be getting another storm.

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/8464/0mN1cl.gif [/url]

GFS ensemble is still split between the two solutions (west into Nicaragua/Honduras vs. recurve through Cuba/Bahamas/maybe south Florida) somewhat evenly, though all of the ensembles seem to be trending towards the western track over the past few runs. However, I think we're just going to have to wait until a LLC actually forms before the models can forecast this storm's path with any degree of certainty.

https://media1.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExM20wd25hejV2NDhxNDExd2NncXc1OG4ybTVxeTIxOWN5N3k2NHdwYiZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/ODTz6OxGqLaEQADVpZ/giphy.gif

When the invest is tagged, we will get the full package of models and a more clear picture will unfold.

[Iceresistance]

This looks nasty, panned back to the SW to see what is going on in the Caribbean


https://s6.gifyu.com/images/S873d.gif

[ThunderForce]

This looks nasty, panned back to the SW to see what is going on in the Caribbean

https://s6.gifyu.com/images/S873d.gif
https://s6.gifyu.com/images/S873d.gif

Yikes, that looks more like a monstrous Pacific typhoon than it does your typical Atlantic hurricane.

[SFLcane]

This looks nasty, panned back to the SW to see what is going on in the Caribbean

https://s6.gifyu.com/images/S873d.gif
https://s6.gifyu.com/images/S873d.gif

Never use the parent domain of a nested model. The convective parameterization always spins systems up to quickly.

[Kazmit]

Kind of ironic that the CONUS has been spared from all the Cape Verde storms by persistent troughing, but now that there's a Caribbean storm it may be saved by ridging.

[cycloneye]

12 GFS =Much weaker amd more buried in CA.

[kevin]

12z GFS weaker, but would be a rain disaster for parts of CA with 24+ inches along the coast.

[ElectricStorm]

I think the 12z GFS is more realistic, similar to the other models. I think a TS tracking into CA is most likely, although I could see a Julia or Lisa situation where it really starts to get going right before landfall, but runs out of time to get too strong. I'd be hesitant to expect anything more than a minimal Cat 1 for now, unless it develops way earlier than expected

[Weathertracker96]

Just checked the 12z GFS, is it trying to strength the system again? It seems be staying in the NW Caribbean and the frame I just saw had it 999mb down from 1004mb

[cycloneye]

The long range 12z GFS is the most crazy one I'd ever seen and I have seen a lot of model runs since I began at S2K.

[ElectricStorm]

The GFS really is something else

I think it's time for another upgrade lol

[Hurricane2022]

I'm sure I've seen worse rounds than this 12Z but it shows the GFS in its purest possible state.

[Iceresistance]

Exhibit A for "Crazy GFS runs"


https://s6.gifyu.com/images/S87cX.gif

[cheezyWXguy]

Lol not gonna comment much on the absurdity of the storm track itself, but what I glean from the run is the favorability of conditions in the western Caribbean and weak steering currents if any diving fronts aren’t strong enough to lift it out. Basically just confirms the notion that storm strength will be determined by how much land interaction the ridging produces.

With the ensemble signal looking more like a probability cloud than a cone of uncertainty, deterministic model runs will likely continue to be useless in determining track until something forms imo.

[ScottNAtlanta]

The front going through Atlanta toady (which will bring our first freeze tomorrow) is the strongest front so far and the strongest one modeled for the next week, so the fronts not digging down far enough is a very real possibility. Hopefully I dont hurt my back pulling my plants back in the house.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO:

A trough of low pressure over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is expected to
move westward during the next several days, and environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development. A tropical
depression could form late this week when the system reaches the
central or southwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

[SFLcane]