Possible Development in the Central / SW Caribbean (Is Invest 97L)

[AutoPenalti]

Insane scenario but it would require literally extremely favorable conditions without any sort of interference from dry air intrusion or shear at lower/mid/upper levels.

[Teban54]

0z GFS a bit further south, so it crashes into Central America and doesn't seem to get strong on the recurve... So far (out to 252 hrs).

[cycloneye]

For the record, here is the 2 AM TWO:

An area of disturbed weather has formed over the eastern Caribbean
Sea. This system is expected to move westward during the next
several days, and environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development. A tropical depression could form late this
week when the system reaches the central or southwestern Caribbean
Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[cycloneye]

06z GFS same as 00z to Central America.

[mantis83]

06z GFS same as 00z to Central America.

trending strongly towards the euro...good news for florida

[SFLcane]

Over night trends shields up for the Conus but could be some flooding issues for Central America hopefully nothing to strong.

[SFLcane]

06z GFS same as 00z to Central America.

trending strongly towards the euro...good news for florida

There was never any bad news for anyone let alone Florida.

[Weathertracker96]

06z GFS same as 00z to Central America.

trending strongly towards the euro...good news for florida

The GEFS ensembles on tropical tidbits still look a little more north of operational so I wouldn’t call it a strong trend. I think the best thing to do is to see if/where development occurs before we starting to rule out places.

[cycloneye]

A trough of low pressure over the eastern Caribbean Sea is
associated with disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system
is expected to move westward during the next several days, and
environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development.
A tropical depression could form late this week when the system
reaches the central or southwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[kevin]

Some of the strongest members curve away earlier and seem to be Cuba-bound.

[aspen]

So far the GFS remains the only model showing a compact circulation forming. All the rest have a broad disturbance that fails to tighten up.

[WeatherBoy2000]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1718956949931241736




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1718958468462264565




One thing to note is that the Caribbean Sea is nearly 1.5c above normal, as long as this AOI remains in the Caribbean it'll have at least 30c ssts to work with. I think due to this there's a bigger risk for models outside the gfs/gefs to downplay the rate of intensification than usual.

[kevin]

On the HAFS-B parent of Pilar you can see a near-cat 5 hurricane forming, which seems to come from the same origin that GFS is developing from.



Edit: you can also see it on the 96L HAFS-B parent where it intensifies to 924 mb/145 kt at +126 hrs.

[Blown Away]

06z GEFS... AOI stays weak it gets buried into CA... Deepening system gets pulled N...

[kevin]

HAFS-B indicates we might just be 4 days removed from a hurricane and 5 days from a cat 5 with a TD/TS in as little as 3 days. Very curious to see whether models will jump on board of if HAFS/GFS will bust, because the timeline is quite close now.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I wouldn't look at parents for other systems when looking to see what the HAFS is thinking for this system.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1718962827493249255




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1718966085976723638

[cycloneye]

[ChrisH-UK]

There is a circulation starting to form up over the Caribbean that fits what the models have been predicting.

Source - https://col.st/MrCVe

[zzzh]

That's a different system.