Possible development in the SW Caribbean (Is Invest 98L)

[cycloneye]

The model runs will be posted in this thread.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Thu Nov 9 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure could form in the southwestern
Caribbean Sea by the middle of next week. Some gradual development
of this system is possible thereafter as it meanders over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Bucci

[abajan]

Link: https://youtu.be/t644YKAV01M

[blp]

This one may have a couple wrong turns. GEFS has it going right, left, right. Might get stuck. Early days..

GEFS


EPS:

[cycloneye]

The U.S mainland will be protected by the strong shear.

 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1722774424053481559

[Category5Kaiju]

The U.S mainland will be protected by the strong shear.

https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1722774424053481559

Yeah, I agree that it's quite unlikely that the mainland US will really have to worry about this system. However, it's a different story for Jamaica and Cuba. Possibly the Bahamas too.

[msbee]

I heard MR Weatherman on YouTube mentioning Wrong Way Lenny in 1999, which traveled East towards the Caribbean islands. He mentioned the possibility of a similar scenario. Are the models suggesting this possibility also?

[AnnularCane]

https://youtu.be/t644YKAV01M

It probably won't happen, but I'm kind of hoping we can get maybe a TS or STS in the subtropics over the next week so this can be Wrong Way Whitney (sounds better than Wrong Way Vince).

[SFLcane]

Huh..

[Weathertracker96]

Huh..

https://i.postimg.cc/rs5bfyKq/IMG-7906.png

Was just about to comment about that. More ensembles are creeping north compared to earlier. It will be interesting to see how this possibly comes together.

[cycloneye]

I heard MR Weatherman on YouTube mentioning Wrong Way Lenny in 1999, which traveled East towards the Caribbean islands. He mentioned the possibility of a similar scenario. Are the models suggesting this possibility also?

Hi Barbara. If this develops, it won't be like the 1999 Lenny that moved east thru the Caribbean sea as a powerful cat 4 hurricane that passed south of PR. The models are not on consensus on a track but most move it northeast to Jamaica ,Cuba, Haiti and the Bahamas, but is early for sure.

[Hurricane2022]

https://youtu.be/t644YKAV01M

It probably won't happen, but I'm kind of hoping we can get maybe a TS or STS in the subtropics over the next week so this can be Wrong Way Whitney (sounds better than Wrong Way Vince).

In the subtropics it wouldn't be funny, as every year there is at least one or two systems that goes backwards instead of heading west in that region (Ex. Don '23, Danielle '22, Wanda '21)

It would be cooler to see a Wrong Way Whitney (WWW ) in the MDR, or in the middle of the Caribbean or even maybe in the GOM (without affecting any place significantly, of course)

[Jr0d]

We got a lemon.

Usually by this time of the year many have stopped watching...hence the lack of posts here.

It is a little close to home in the Keys, but a significant impact here is unlikely but certainly something not to turn our back on..

[floridasun]

Huh..

https://i.postimg.cc/rs5bfyKq/IMG-7906.png

I think most we see ts wind of 60 mph

[AnnularCane]

We got a lemon.

Usually by this time of the year many have stopped watching...hence the lack of posts here.

The all-too-recent 97L incident probably didn't help either.

[Woofde]

We got a lemon.

Usually by this time of the year many have stopped watching...hence the lack of posts here.

The all-too-recent 97L incident probably didn't help either.

I've still been popping in to see what's happening, but the models being so awful this year has definitely made me not really put any stock into them. There are just too many absurd model runs and busts this year to trust them. Just look to what Otis did without any model support. If we actually get a storm or circulation that looks promising instead, that would be another story.

I am interested why it feels like they've took such a large step back compared to previous years. Is it just due to the unusual atmospheric setup present this year, or are there larger issues?

[SouthFLTropics]

Ok… the 00z GFS tonight may easily be in the top 3 crazy runs of all time. I tried to post a gif of it but for some reason I couldn’t get it to upload to Imgur.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[ThunderForce]

00z GFS:

[kevin]

00z GFS

[jlauderdal]

00z GFS:
https://i.postimg.cc/xdxV9N18/gfs-mslp-wind-watl-fh114-384.gif

Should I start the preps, 384H is making me nervous.

[REDHurricane]

00z GFS

https://imgur.com/o1TuBuL

You know, one of these days the GFS will actually be spot-on with a sicko run like this and we'll all have to say sorry for making fun of it