Possible development in the SW Caribbean (Is Invest 98L)

[ThunderForce]

12z ECENS (Euro Ensembles):

[PavelGaborik10]

Well, 12z operational Euro turns very bullish. Has a solid TS but track is the contrary from GFS.

https://i.imgur.com/Hz23FaF.gif

That's quite the extratropical nuke it's sending off towards the NE

[Blown Away]

12z ECENS… Sorry Luis, I switched it up.

[cycloneye]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/fb7Gq744/ec-fast-ow850-watl-fh120-240.gif [/url]
12z Euro has a hurricane zig zagging in the Caribbean…

Posted it at the end of page 2.

[cycloneye]

Still early.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1723428429373301042

[cycloneye]

Up to 40%.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form in the southwestern
Caribbean Sea around the middle of next week. Thereafter,
environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development,
and a tropical depression could form late next week as the system
drifts northeastward in the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Kelly

[jlauderdal]

Up to 40%.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Sat Nov 11 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form in the southwestern
Caribbean Sea around the middle of next week. Thereafter,
environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development,
and a tropical depression could form late next week as the system
drifts northeastward in the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Kelly

They are over 24 hours behind 57. NHC is on the backfoot.

[Blown Away]

18z GEFS… More uncertainty…

[underthwx]

Still early.

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1723428429373301042

I'm not wishing it on you Luis, but it's looking more likely yall are gonna get some rain bro....hope thats all...I also want to wish you, your family, and everyone a great Thanksgiving, and holiday season! Yall be well my friend!....

[wxman57]

18Z GFS is backing off on the hurricane prediction. Slower to develop and weaker.

[abajan]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Sun Nov 12 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form in the southwestern
Caribbean Sea around the middle of the week. Thereafter,
environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development,
and a tropical depression could form late this week while the
system drifts northeastward in the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Sun Nov 12 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to form over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days. Gradual development is
possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this
week while the system drifts northeastward across the western and
central portions of the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[Hurricane2022]

Euro still wants a hurricane from this, while the GFS now barely shows a organized TC

[ThunderForce]

Weird that the GFS and Euro have essentially flip-flopped in intensity.

Tracks are also pretty different from each other. GFS wants to take it northeast as a sloppy tropical storm(?) while Euro wants to take it northwest as a hurricane.

[wxman57]

The GFS solution finally looks reasonable. Maybe a TD or very weak, sheared TS crossing the DR next Friday. Not it's the Euro that doesn't look right. It develops a hurricane as it moves into the high shear region of the NW Caribbean. That seems unlikely. I'm still thinking 60-70% chance of a TD or weak TS by Thursday.

[Hurricane2022]

Well...it seems that 2023 has already shown everything it had to show us...Please wake me up only in August (or July) 2024!!!

[abajan]

Well...it seems that 2023 has already shown everything it had to show us...Please wake me up only in August (or July) 2024!!!

Not quite. It's really important we bear in mind that the main hazard with tropical cyclones isn't their wind.



Link: https://youtu.be/4HWdTWIbn4Y

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Sun Nov 12 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to form over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days. Gradual development is
possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this
week while the system drifts northeastward across the western and
central portions of the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

12z Euro caved to GFS on the track.

[underthwx]

12z Euro caved to GFS on the track.

https://i.imgur.com/aXcIWtr.gif

So, is the GFS the favored model with this system?