Non-Tropical Low East of Florida

[AtlanticWind]

Hurricane center giving this area 10 percent chance

[AtlanticWind]

Offshore Southeast Coast of United States:
An area of low pressure is expected to develop near southern Florida
in a day or so. This system is then forecast to move northeastward
near the Bahamas and offshore of the east coast of the U.S. late
this week and over the weekend. Although development into a tropical
cyclone appears unlikely, this system is expected to produce gusty
winds and heavy rains across portions of southern Florida, the
Florida Keys, and the Bahamas during the next couple of days. For
more information on this system, including gale warnings, see High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

[AtlanticWind]

We are already receiving flooding rains today in Broward County.

NWS is calling for some isolated areas up to 10 inches possible thru Thursday and gusty winds to 35 mph.

[MarioProtVI]

Models show fronts. Non-tropical, not developing and I think it’s time to close the book on hurricane season.

[PavelGaborik10]

Don't see this one becoming tropical, does look like a pretty big threat down the line for Atlantic Canada though, pressure gradient there could lead to a system significantly more impactful than overhyped Lee for the region.

[cycloneye]

2 PM:

Offshore Southeast Coast of United States:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form near
southern Florida along a frontal boundary by tomorrow. This system
is then forecast to move quickly northeastward across the Bahamas
and offshore of the east coast of the U.S. through the weekend.
Although development into a tropical cyclone appears unlikely, this
system is expected to produce gusty winds and heavy rains across
portions of southern Florida, the Florida Keys, and the Bahamas
during the next couple of days. For more information on this
system, including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

[floridasun]

Forecast models that my station use show td or ts passing over dade even show potential of a tornado in rain bands flood big issue with this system even nhc send hurr hunter into low but not yet td

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Evening everyone,

Been very nasty most of the day here in Key Largo, and appears to be getting worse. Had a Tornado warning earlier, but can't confirm if anything was spotted.

[cycloneye]

Offshore Southeast Coast of United States:
A non-tropical area of low pressure appears to be forming near
southern Florida along a frontal boundary. This system is forecast
to move quickly northeastward across the Bahamas and offshore of the
east coast of the U.S. through the weekend. Although development
into a tropical cyclone appears unlikely, this system is expected to
produce gusty winds and heavy rains across portions of southern
Florida, the Florida Keys, and the Bahamas during the next couple of
days. For more information on this system, including gale warnings,
see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Regarding the gusty winds and heavy rain that I can confirm, steady winds 25 30 mph higher gust.

[MGC]

Some good spin starting to shape up over the upper Keys. Doubt it becomes tropical.....MGC

[Miami Storm Tracker]

With that spin I know there is always a slight chance, but do you see a more serious concern for Tornado's?

[HURRICANELONNY]

I call it Hell Nino. Hollywood/Ft lauderdale surpassed 100 inches rain this year. Can't wait for sun this weekend. Oh they call this Florida Noreaster. Makes sense

[HURRICANELONNY]

I just posted on 98L discussion. Probably should be here. There calling it florida noreaster. Which makes sense. El Nino also makes sense. Over 100 inches so far 23 this year. Good news sun and cooler for me this weekend

[HurricaneBelle]

I call it Hell Nino. Hollywood/Ft lauderdale surpassed 100 inches rain this year. Can't wait for sun this weekend. Oh they call this Florida Noreaster. Makes sense

Meanwhile over on the West coast of FL we're about 10-15 inches below normal after a summer rainy season that wasn't and watering restrictions were just implemented in the Tampa Bay area and points south.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Evening all
Its around 3:00 am here in Key Largo and I am telling you we have had consiteent tropical force winds here with way higher gust, the rain has been heavy since the afternoon and evern more so now. some crazy stuff.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Windy with power surges in Jupiter. Been a long time seeing anything like this not from a tropical storm.

[johngaltfla]

The radar presentation is impressive this morning.

 https://twitter.com/CraigSetzer/status/1725065601033396662

[AxaltaRacing24]

This entire event gives me Nicole vibes from last year.

[AJC3]

Windy with power surges in Jupiter. Been a long time seeing anything like this not from a tropical storm.

With this morning's forecast package from our office (NWS MLB) came only the second High Wind Warning (for the immediate Treasure Coast) that we've ever issued. The criteria for HWW issuance is sustained gale force winds (AOA 40mph) over land and/or gusts AOA 58 mph. This is basically the equaivlent impact of a Tropical Storm, except the low is frontal. This is a historical event for ECFL as this magnitude of sustained winds occurring here outside of a Tropical Storm is quite rare.

NPWMLB

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
438 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2023

FLZ154-159-164-161800-
/O.UPG.KMLB.WI.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-231117T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMLB.HW.W.0001.231116T0938Z-231116T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KMLB.WI.Y.0011.231116T1800Z-231117T0000Z/
Coastal Indian River-Coastal Saint Lucie-Coastal Martin-
Including the cities of Sebastian, Vero Beach, Fort Pierce,
Port Saint Lucie, Hobe Sound, Jensen Beach, and Stuart
438 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...For the High Wind Warning, northeast winds 25 to 40 mph
with gusts up to 60 mph near the coast and across barrier
islands. For the Wind Advisory, northeast winds 20 to 30 mph
with gusts up to 45 mph expected.

* WHERE...Coastal Indian River, Coastal Saint Lucie and Coastal
Martin Counties.

* WHEN...For the High Wind Warning, until 1 PM EST this
afternoon. For the Wind Advisory, from 1 PM this afternoon to
7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.
Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be
difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

October 9, 2011 was the only other time our office issued a HWW.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
527 PM EDT SUN OCT 9 2011

FLZ047-054-141-147-100400-
/O.UPG.KMLB.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-111010T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMLB.HW.W.0001.111009T2127Z-111010T0400Z/
SOUTHERN BREVARD-INDIAN RIVER-COASTAL VOLUSIA-NORTHERN BREVARD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MELBOURNE...PALM BAY...VERO BEACH...
DAYTONA BEACH...TITUSVILLE
527 PM EDT SUN OCT 9 2011

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT.

* TIMING...AFTER 6 PM VERY STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS OFFSHORE OUT
AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT AREAS
ALONG THE COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE MAINLAND. WINDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AROUND MIDNIGHT.

* IMPACTS...SOME POWER OUTAGES AND MINOR DAMAGE ARE LIKELY MAINLY
DUE TO SATURATED GROUNDS AND GUSTY WINDS KNOCKING DOWN SHALLOW
ROOTED TREES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

&&