Possible development from a non-tropical low in the central Atlantic (Is Invest 90L)

[MarioProtVI]

2. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is forecast to develop along a
front over the central portion of the Atlantic basin during the next
couple of days. This system could separate from the front and
gradually acquire some tropical or subtropical characteristics
during the latter part of this week while it moves generally
eastward across the central subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[MarioProtVI]

0/30.

2. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is forecast to develop along a
front over the central portion of the Atlantic basin during the next
couple of days. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear somewhat
conducive for this system to gradually acquire some subtropical or
tropical characteristics during the latter part of this week while
it moves generally eastward across the central subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure is developing along a frontal boundary just
to the southeast of Bermuda. This non-tropical low is forecast to
move southeastward across the central subtropical Atlantic over
warmer sea surface temperatures during the next few days, and
environmental conditions appear conducive for this system to
gradually acquire tropical characteristics. A subtropical or
tropical storm could form by the latter part of this week, as the
system continues moving eastward followed by a turn northeastward by
the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[tolakram]

[galaxy401]

Is this from the remnants of that PTC in the Caribbean?

[cycloneye]

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure is developing along a frontal boundary just
to the southeast of Bermuda. This non-tropical low is forecast to
move southeastward across the central subtropical Atlantic over
warmer sea surface temperatures during the next few days, and
environmental conditions appear conducive for this system to
gradually acquire tropical characteristics. A subtropical or
tropical storm could form by the latter part of this week, as the
system continues moving eastward followed by a turn northeastward by
the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[Hammy]

Is this from the remnants of that PTC in the Caribbean?

Looks like a lobe from that system off Florida a few days ago is interacting with that and an upper trough

[cycloneye]

8 AM:

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure is expected to develop along a frontal
boundary over the central subtropical Atlantic later today. This
non-tropical low is forecast to move southeastward across the
central subtropical Atlantic over warmer sea surface temperatures
during the next few days, and environmental conditions appear
conducive for this system to gradually acquire tropical
characteristics. A subtropical or tropical storm could form by the
latter part of this week, as the system continues moving eastward
followed by a turn northeastward by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

[LarryWx]

Is this the same? 0Z UKMET:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 26.8N 43.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.11.2023 60 27.0N 42.9W 1003 36
0000UTC 24.11.2023 72 27.5N 42.2W 1003 34
1200UTC 24.11.2023 84 28.1N 41.0W 1004 31
0000UTC 25.11.2023 96 29.7N 39.4W 1004 35
1200UTC 25.11.2023 108 32.2N 38.2W 1002 33
0000UTC 26.11.2023 120 35.0N 38.6W 999 32
1200UTC 26.11.2023 132 38.3N 39.4W 998 36
0000UTC 27.11.2023 144 41.5N 39.8W 995 41
1200UTC 27.11.2023 156 45.3N 39.4W 989 47
0000UTC 28.11.2023 168 48.5N 38.9W 990 50

[cycloneye]

8 PM:

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure is expected to develop along a frontal
boundary over the central subtropical Atlantic within the next day
or so. This non-tropical low is forecast to move southeastward
across the central subtropical Atlantic over warmer sea surface
temperatures during the next few days, and environmental conditions
could allow for this system to gradually acquire tropical or
subtropical characteristics. A subtropical or tropical storm could
form by the latter part of this week or this weekend, as the system
turns northeastward by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure is expected to develop along a frontal
boundary over the central subtropical Atlantic in a day or so. This
non-tropical low is forecast to move southeastward across the
central subtropical Atlantic over warmer sea surface temperatures
during the next couple of days, and environmental conditions are
marginally conducive for this system to acquire tropical or
subtropical characteristics. A subtropical or tropical storm could
form by the latter part of this week or this weekend, as the system
turns northeastward by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Kelly

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure is expected to develop along a frontal
boundary over the central subtropical Atlantic on Thursday. This
system could become a subtropical or tropical storm late this week
and over the weekend while it loses its frontal characteristics
and moves northeastward. The chances of subtropical or tropical
development should end by early next week when the system moves
over cooler waters.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

[MarioProtVI]

And yet another bust to end the 2023 season. Jesus wtf is with the models?? They’ve done so poorly this year it’s like 2020 on acid. This late season after Tammy and 21L have been extremely frustrating, just as much as 2021 was.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

And yet another bust to end the 2023 season. Jesus wtf is with the models?? They’ve done so poorly this year it’s like 2020 on acid. This late season after Tammy and 21L have been extremely frustrating, just as much as 2021 was.

There have been lots of whiffs on the models this year but I think 2020 was still worse. Models constantly playing catchup in initializing storms until right after formation (Hanna and Sally) is way worse than any false alarm, especially when they ended up impacting land (Sally significantly so). Managed to dig up this post I made showing some examples of the GFS' poor performance that season.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure is developing along a frontal boundary over
the central subtropical Atlantic this morning. This system could
become a subtropical or tropical storm late this week or over the
weekend while it loses its frontal characteristics and moves
northeastward. The chances of subtropical or tropical development
should end by early next week when the system moves over cooler
waters.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

[LarryWx]

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 26.2N 42.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.11.2023 0 26.2N 42.7W 1008 32
0000UTC 24.11.2023 12 26.1N 41.9W 1009 28
1200UTC 24.11.2023 24 26.9N 40.3W 1010 27
0000UTC 25.11.2023 36 27.7N 37.9W 1009 29
1200UTC 25.11.2023 48 29.1N 34.9W 1010 29
0000UTC 26.11.2023 60 31.7N 31.9W 1007 29
1200UTC 26.11.2023 72 35.3N 30.9W 1005 32
0000UTC 27.11.2023 84 37.9N 28.5W 1005 28
1200UTC 27.11.2023 96 39.2N 26.5W 1004 32
0000UTC 28.11.2023 108 40.5N 25.3W 1003 34
1200UTC 28.11.2023 120 41.9N 22.9W 1003 40
0000UTC 29.11.2023 132 41.6N 19.6W 1003 40
1200UTC 29.11.2023 144 41.4N 13.9W 1000 48
0000UTC 30.11.2023 156 CEASED TRACKING

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure has developed along a frontal boundary over
the central subtropical Atlantic. This system could become a
subtropical or tropical storm late this week or over the weekend
while it loses its frontal characteristics and moves northeastward.
The chances of subtropical or tropical development should end by
early next week when the system moves over cooler waters.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

[cycloneye]

Invest 90L is up