2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[Teban54]

New Cansips is out, things still look very favorable though weaker compared to the last run.
One thing I noticed is the South Atlantic sst:
https://i.postimg.cc/2yf3pNyj/cansips-ssta-noice-samer-fh0-trend.gif
Most models fail to capture the warmth in the south atlantic and now trend toward less +AMM and a more suppressed ITCZ.
https://i.postimg.cc/Kz8LVKGN/cansips-apcpna-month-samer-fh0-trend.gif
You can see the wet anomaly shifts to the south of equator while the dry anomaly shifts to the north of equator.
Typically the AMM is phase-locked in the spring, and if the south atlantic does not cool down in the next 2 month, we are going to see enhanced trades over east atlantic/mdr this summer.

That's an interesting adjustment/caveat. Doesn't look like it cools the SATL that much by peak either, and you can see the resulting ITCZ shifting equatorward in this period as well as a result.

https://i.ibb.co/Z2XCQBG/cansips-ssta-Mean-noice-month-samer-fh6-trend.gif
https://i.ibb.co/YZkr2Fp/cansips-apcpna-multimonth-samer-fh6-trend.gif
MDR remains more or less the same in terms of well-above avg warmth so it doesn't appear to be too much of a negating factor, but it is probably worth keeping a watchful eye on how SSTs in the SATL evolve, especially if the other guidance follows suit in showing this.

https://i.ibb.co/nLqjGxD/cansips-ssta-Mean-noice-month-atl-fh6-trend-1.gif
https://i.ibb.co/MC7nmQb/90f81bfd-3ee8-4092-9044-fab5f102a2a1.gif

Andy Hazelton just cited a paper saying a stronger Atlantic Nino may result in an even more active CV season.
 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1774879634712101149



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1774880248137458102

[zzzh]

Andy Hazelton just cited a paper saying a stronger Atlantic Nino may result in an even more active CV season.
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1774879634712101149?s=19
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1774880248137458102?s=19

That is true. However the SST configuration is slightly different. Those active years are more like +AMM and Atlantic Nino, with warmth centered at the equator and MDR/Canary Current, while the south Atlantic is less warm. This year so far the south Atlantic is just as warm as the north Atlantic, and models are trending toward a warmer S Atl during peak season.

[MHC Tracking]

The hype on this season feels a little bit premature. It's still March, folks... I'm not saying it'll "bust" but there's so much time for things to change. For all we know, July could be chok-a-blok with SAL that doesn't depart until mid-August. Or the + AMO could collapse. Or SSTs near Newfoundland could sharply rise by midsummer, leading to "wave-breaking". So many unanswered questions still, so we need to have patience and watch how things play out.

Agreed, even now the +AMO has been starting to cool down. So much doom and gloom about how we'll get 250 ACE or whatnot out there you'd think some people are wishing for a terrible season. I saw someone claiming it'd be the "worst ever". In general, I think people need to wait at least until May before starting to think seriously about seasonal activity beyond "probably above-average".

[Teban54]

The hype on this season feels a little bit premature. It's still March, folks... I'm not saying it'll "bust" but there's so much time for things to change. For all we know, July could be chok-a-blok with SAL that doesn't depart until mid-August. Or the + AMO could collapse. Or SSTs near Newfoundland could sharply rise by midsummer, leading to "wave-breaking". So many unanswered questions still, so we need to have patience and watch how things play out.

Agreed, even now the +AMO has been starting to cool down. So much doom and gloom about how we'll get 250 ACE or whatnot out there you'd think some people are wishing for a terrible season. I saw someone claiming it'd be the "worst ever". In general, I think people need to wait at least until May before starting to think seriously about seasonal activity beyond "probably above-average".

The +AMO cooling down from the absurd levels has been showing up on every global model output since January. That's hardly unexpected, and it has been shown repeatedly that even record-tying cooling still results in an MDR as warm as the warmest of years except 2023.

[StPeteMike]

The hype on this season feels a little bit premature. It's still March, folks... I'm not saying it'll "bust" but there's so much time for things to change. For all we know, July could be chok-a-blok with SAL that doesn't depart until mid-August. Or the + AMO could collapse. Or SSTs near Newfoundland could sharply rise by midsummer, leading to "wave-breaking". So many unanswered questions still, so we need to have patience and watch how things play out.

Agreed, even now the +AMO has been starting to cool down. So much doom and gloom about how we'll get 250 ACE or whatnot out there you'd think some people are wishing for a terrible season. I saw someone claiming it'd be the "worst ever". In general, I think people need to wait at least until May before starting to think seriously about seasonal activity beyond "probably above-average".

Even by May, might be too early. Things from May to September can easily change in conditions. I still think this season will be above average, but conditions like Sahara Dust increasing in distribution or stronger Caribbean trade winds and would be foolish to confidently say this season will be the worst season or season from hell.

Now, I’ll allow the thread to be back on subject.

[MHC Tracking]

The hype on this season feels a little bit premature. It's still March, folks... I'm not saying it'll "bust" but there's so much time for things to change. For all we know, July could be chok-a-blok with SAL that doesn't depart until mid-August. Or the + AMO could collapse. Or SSTs near Newfoundland could sharply rise by midsummer, leading to "wave-breaking". So many unanswered questions still, so we need to have patience and watch how things play out.

Agreed, even now the +AMO has been starting to cool down. So much doom and gloom about how we'll get 250 ACE or whatnot out there you'd think some people are wishing for a terrible season. I saw someone claiming it'd be the "worst ever". In general, I think people need to wait at least until May before starting to think seriously about seasonal activity beyond "probably above-average".

The +AMO cooling down from the absurd levels has been showing up on every global model output since January. That's hardly unexpected, and it has been shown repeatedly that even record-tying cooling still results in an MDR as warm as the warmest of years except 2023.

You and I may know that, but many people (not specifically here) have been acting like it'll continue indefinitely, when the mere fact that NAO phases change shows us that something like that would be near-impossible.

[cycloneye]

Ok folks. Let's stick to the topic of this thread that are the indicators that guide things for the upcomming hurricane season. SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability and the +16 day Climate Models.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1774971034451529764

[Cpv17]

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1774971034451529764

1 and 2 early on and then 2 and 3 after mid September.

[ScottNAtlanta]

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1774971034451529764

1 and 2 early on and then 2 and 3 after mid September.

I think Texas has more of a target on it than in previous years

[ThomasW]

The hype on this season feels a little bit premature. It's still March, folks... I'm not saying it'll "bust" but there's so much time for things to change. For all we know, July could be chok-a-blok with SAL that doesn't depart until mid-August. Or the + AMO could collapse. Or SSTs near Newfoundland could sharply rise by midsummer, leading to "wave-breaking". So many unanswered questions still, so we need to have patience and watch how things play out.

Agreed, even now the +AMO has been starting to cool down. So much doom and gloom about how we'll get 250 ACE or whatnot out there you'd think some people are wishing for a terrible season. I saw someone claiming it'd be the "worst ever". In general, I think people need to wait at least until May before starting to think seriously about seasonal activity beyond "probably above-average".

The +AMO cooling down from the absurd levels has been showing up on every global model output since January. That's hardly unexpected, and it has been shown repeatedly that even record-tying cooling still results in an MDR as warm as the warmest of years except 2023.

Very true. Back when I was first forecasting - in the days of the great Bob Sheets - we didn't start talking about the season from an activity standpoint until mid-May.

[AutoPenalti]

Slightly weaker Precip Anomalies, maybe some subsidence and dry air?

[SFLcane]

https://i.imgur.com/ebn8JxK.gif
Slightly weaker Precip Anomalies, maybe some subsidence and dry air?

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1776227269771456590

[SFLcane]

[cheezyWXguy]

https://i.imgur.com/ebn8JxK.gif
Slightly weaker Precip Anomalies, maybe some subsidence and dry air?

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1776227269771456590

Yeah, that’s still an incredibly high output. Precip anomalies may be slightly down from the previous run but with a background state still so favorable, I don’t think it will matter. At this point, it’ll probably just come down to the factors involved in individual setups in the moment. Season looks busy to me

[AutoPenalti]

:eek:


https://i.postimg.cc/TwykX3N9/hhhh.jpg

Shows some potential CONUS threats or close recurves.

[mixedDanilo.E]

This kinda caught me eye how much warmer the ECMWF SSTAs have pretty significantly uptrended in the subtropics between last month and this month. Maybe explains why precip and SLP has downtrended in some areas.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Agreed, even now the +AMO has been starting to cool down. So much doom and gloom about how we'll get 250 ACE or whatnot out there you'd think some people are wishing for a terrible season. I saw someone claiming it'd be the "worst ever". In general, I think people need to wait at least until May before starting to think seriously about seasonal activity beyond "probably above-average".

The +AMO cooling down from the absurd levels has been showing up on every global model output since January. That's hardly unexpected, and it has been shown repeatedly that even record-tying cooling still results in an MDR as warm as the warmest of years except 2023.

Very true. Back when I was first forecasting - in the days of the great Bob Sheets - we didn't start talking about the season from an activity standpoint until mid-May.

I think they call that technological progress

[Teban54]

Keep in mind that Euro has a warm bias with ENSO since 2017, which may also be an alternative explanation for reduced precip anomalies.
 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1776252509230604379



 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1776266222130139468



 https://twitter.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1776228491291140598

[blp]

First look at October and as I suspected it looks scary. W. Caribbean is going to be primed.