2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1766105786445406710

[cycloneye]

NMME was supposed to be up last night at 00z as the 8's of every month it always does. I guess there are technnical issues with it, but hopefully, is resolved and we can get the run.

[CyclonicFury]

NMME was supposed to be up last night at 00z as the 8's of every month it always does. I guess there are technnical issues with it, but hopefully, is resolved and we can get the run.

The NMME did come out yesterday, it is on the NMME website but has not appeared on Tidbits yet.

[cycloneye]

NMME was supposed to be up last night at 00z as the 8's of every month it always does. I guess there are technnical issues with it, but hopefully, is resolved and we can get the run.

The NMME did come out yesterday, it is on the NMME website but has not appeared on Tidbits yet.

Found it, thanks. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/

SSt anomalys or ASO.



Precipitation for ASO:

[IsabelaWeather]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1765898622439190956?s=19

Yeah, that's a bad look. Maybe we'll see a southern biased season early with any west-basin systems. Seems like Mexico and central America are gonna take at least a few hits from waves or whatever they might be. It's normal for impulses to move across those areas anyway and into the EPAC. But with the precipitation down there at in "+" range, maybe they'll get more than normal.

MJO took control of the USA's winter despite many of the indicators and indices that favor colder patterns. It's still early March, so it's probably going to get cold at least a couple more times. But since the last really cold outbreak, it's been mild. The phases MJO preferred to be in (4/5/6/7) are typically warmer phases in winter except for 4. None of those are particularly favorable for hurricane hits on the USA or activity in the western Atlantic like 8/1/2/3 (particularly Phases 2 and 3). So the evolution into spring and summer and how it behaves and interacts with the building La Nina and also to see if it will be strong enough to be predictive in 2024 will become important. Some years MJO is weaker and isn't the main influence on the tropical Atlantic. It's not been weak this winter at all. So should it remain one of the dominant controlling interests, it could be a year where moves into the Indian Ocean phases will telegraph western Atlantic activity.

I dont understand what you mean an el nino usually means a warm winter east of the rockies. All of the winter forecasts I saw showed warmer than usual. Yet you were expecting a cold winter?

[Steve]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1765898622439190956?s=19

Yeah, that's a bad look. Maybe we'll see a southern biased season early with any west-basin systems. Seems like Mexico and central America are gonna take at least a few hits from waves or whatever they might be. It's normal for impulses to move across those areas anyway and into the EPAC. But with the precipitation down there at in "+" range, maybe they'll get more than normal.

MJO took control of the USA's winter despite many of the indicators and indices that favor colder patterns. It's still early March, so it's probably going to get cold at least a couple more times. But since the last really cold outbreak, it's been mild. The phases MJO preferred to be in (4/5/6/7) are typically warmer phases in winter except for 4. None of those are particularly favorable for hurricane hits on the USA or activity in the western Atlantic like 8/1/2/3 (particularly Phases 2 and 3). So the evolution into spring and summer and how it behaves and interacts with the building La Nina and also to see if it will be strong enough to be predictive in 2024 will become important. Some years MJO is weaker and isn't the main influence on the tropical Atlantic. It's not been weak this winter at all. So should it remain one of the dominant controlling interests, it could be a year where moves into the Indian Ocean phases will telegraph western Atlantic activity.

I dont understand what you mean an el nino usually means a warm winter east of the rockies. All of the winter forecasts I saw showed warmer than usual. Yet you were expecting a cold winter?

Yeah. Most of the ones I saw had it cold in the SEUS. The Nino was in place but it was going to decay and not be the predominant factor. AO, NAO and others have been telegraphing oscillating, cold outbreaks relative to average but they mostly haven't been realized. MJO has been pretty far out of the circle at times (when it's not been inside of it). And the upward motion has been around the islands in the Indian Ocean.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... r_wh.shtml

[Teban54]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1766105786445406710

That would probably be the worst case scenario for impacts, indeed: warming of MDR in spring, then strong ridging at the peak of the hurricane season to send storms further west (while being too late to erode the MDR warmth significantly).

I also wonder if the ECMWF animation's fading out of warm anomalies may simply be averages of ensemble members that cancel out the most extreme values (notice the same thing happening to other warm anomalies worldwide, such as east of Japan). But looks like that's a deterministic model so IDK.

[IsabelaWeather]

Yeah, that's a bad look. Maybe we'll see a southern biased season early with any west-basin systems. Seems like Mexico and central America are gonna take at least a few hits from waves or whatever they might be. It's normal for impulses to move across those areas anyway and into the EPAC. But with the precipitation down there at in "+" range, maybe they'll get more than normal.

MJO took control of the USA's winter despite many of the indicators and indices that favor colder patterns. It's still early March, so it's probably going to get cold at least a couple more times. But since the last really cold outbreak, it's been mild. The phases MJO preferred to be in (4/5/6/7) are typically warmer phases in winter except for 4. None of those are particularly favorable for hurricane hits on the USA or activity in the western Atlantic like 8/1/2/3 (particularly Phases 2 and 3). So the evolution into spring and summer and how it behaves and interacts with the building La Nina and also to see if it will be strong enough to be predictive in 2024 will become important. Some years MJO is weaker and isn't the main influence on the tropical Atlantic. It's not been weak this winter at all. So should it remain one of the dominant controlling interests, it could be a year where moves into the Indian Ocean phases will telegraph western Atlantic activity.

I dont understand what you mean an el nino usually means a warm winter east of the rockies. All of the winter forecasts I saw showed warmer than usual. Yet you were expecting a cold winter?

Yeah. Most of the ones I saw had it cold in the SEUS. The Nino was in place but it was going to decay and not be the predominant factor. AO, NAO and others have been telegraphing oscillating, cold outbreaks relative to average but they mostly haven't been realized. MJO has been pretty far out of the circle at times (when it's not been inside of it). And the upward motion has been around the islands in the Indian Ocean.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... r_wh.shtml

Right, cold in the SEUS is due to the strong STJ during el nino, it isnt because of cold outbreaks. I am from Michigan and the weather there this year was pretty normal for a moderate to strong el nino, the only odd thing was the massive cold dump in early january.

Weather here in PR was also normal with the ENSO state, as was the strong STJ causing a lot of rain in florida.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

170% of normal ACE is a strong number.

https://i.imgur.com/WZvY7jn.jpeg

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1764987041790546207

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1764987044114124952

0-7 to 1.7 is the 1-SD range.

To me, it looks like 1.7 is the mean and the standard deviation is 0.7, meaning that the range would be 1.0 to 2.4 times the average ACE for the basin during that range of months. I don't know the exact ACE values that would correspond to (remember that this is compared to the average April-September ACE, not June-November), but it definitely suggests a hyperactive season.

You are right

[Teban54]

A thread comparing SSTA patterns of active years in mid-August:
 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1766175493127102645



 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1766175500488110324

[DorkyMcDorkface]

 https://twitter.com/DCAreaWx/status/1766177682226651472

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1766193900962676985

[cycloneye]

The C35 model will be up on Sunday and will have the August scenario. Below was the febuary run for July.

[cycloneye]

Papin with some caution.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1766235266610548748




 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1766237444423221559




 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1766262760269054082

[Teban54]

Papin with some caution.

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1766235266610548748

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1766237444423221559

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1766262760269054082

That's exactly what happened in 2007, as several discussions brought up before. But Andy is skeptical of a 2007 repeat:
 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1766280574136709220

[869MB]

Papin with some caution.

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1766235266610548748

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1766237444423221559

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1766262760269054082

That's exactly what happened in 2007, as several discussions brought up before. But Andy is skeptical of a 2007 repeat:
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1766280574136709220?s=19

Even if there was a +NAO 2007 repeat this year, I can’t visualize it diminishing the threat of a few impactful storms on parts of our basin significantly where we should let our guard down with everything else being the same. Ocean Heat Content can play a pivotal role with respect to the intensity of slow moving/stalling significant cyclones and the ability to sustain the amount of these types of cyclones over the same general area within a certain amount of time.

Though OHC is important in the overall grand scheme of things, keep in mind warm SST’s above average are sufficient enough to sustain several major, impactful hurricanes, especially ones with brisk forward motions and efficient ventilation. So all in all, I would be most concerned about steering currents above any thing else since we know there will be atmospheric/oceanic features throughout the season that will either enhance or reduce storm productivity and probability.

[cycloneye]

A preview of the March C3S run.

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1766579040402489457




 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1766579043179057394

[cycloneye]

Josh has a point about closer to land sst's.

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1766584784136847475

[Teban54]

Josh has a point about closer to land sst's.

https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1766584784136847475

Andy and Danny replied that MDR SSTAs have much stronger correlation with seasonal activity than Caribbean and Gulf:
 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1766587386954190898




In addition, Caribbean and Gulf SSTAs (especially the latter) can fluctuate very quickly due to shallower waters, so we have little idea how they will look in August. MDR SSTAs are comparatively more stable, to the point where it's not too early to speculate.

[USTropics]

Josh has a point about closer to land sst's.

https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1766584784136847475

Andy and Danny replied that MDR SSTAs have much stronger correlation with seasonal activity than Caribbean and Gulf:
https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1766587386954190898?s=19

In addition, Caribbean and Gulf SSTAs (especially the latter) can fluctuate very quickly due to shallower waters, so we have little idea how they will look in August. MDR SSTAs are comparatively more stable, to the point where it's not too early to speculate.

The GOM and western Caribbean will support major hurricanes every hurricane season, it's more a matter of when they will warm up vs if. Like Teban stated, the shallow waters in this region make them susceptible to quick transitions of cooling and warming due to local parameters. Since we've been locked into an El Nino pattern for most of winter, with the jet stream positioned further south and numerous low pressure systems developing in the GOM, this has caused cooling. You can see from similar El Nino years that this is a common theme in the GOM and NW Caribbean (and why this has 0 correlation to predicting activity during the hurricane season):