2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[zzzh]

Anyone has the latest cansips forecasts? The one on TT is not updating.

[Category5Kaiju]

I'm starting to think that 2023 was just the warning shot.

I mean we still have quite a few months left for things to change, but with the ways things are looking now and likely going to look like for the foreseeable future, this season might really be a doozy.

[cycloneye]

Looking at raws, the MDR actually WARMED.. in December. Impressive.

https://i.imgur.com/vCN54QV.png

Still early but if things (ENSO, MDR ssts) keep trending the way they are then this will be the easiest seasonal forecast since 2020 (obvious hyperactivity)

As you mentioned before, isn't it funny how not even that long ago an MDR of just +0.5C would have been considered impressive?

I guess the S2K 2024 poll will be with the majority of members on the 17 and above named storms and the other two categories above the averages and it would be the first time since the poll has been up since 2005 that may be heavy on high numbers in the three slots.

So could you consider opening the poll in March?

Yes. My goal will be over 200 participants that never has gone that high in these polls.

[Long John]

the CANSIPS is not updating, what's going on?

[cycloneye]

CFS updated and this is the precipitation for JAS.Looks less bullish than CanSips and NMME.

[SFLcane]

CFS updated and this is the precipitation for JAS.Looks less bullish than CanSips and NMME.

https://i.imgur.com/uGlI1nQ.png

The CFS is probably the worst long range model out there.

[WeatherBoy2000]

The Jan 1st Cansips is now here:





So far an active look for the next hurricane season.

[zzzh]

Cansips finally updated. Environment looks extremely favorable.

[cycloneye]

How the steering will be is going to be a big part of how the season will unfold in terms of impacting many people and that is why apart from how ENSO will be by the summer, the NAO is also going to be very important.

[mixedDanilo.E]

How the steering will be is going to be a big part of how the season will unfold in terms of impacting many people and that is why apart from how ENSO will be by the summer, the NAO is also going to be very important.

Very far out still but CanSIPS suggest concerning pattern with ridge off the NW coast of africa and near Atlantic Canada, certainly doesn't look like last year with tons of troughing in the subtropics which led to most storms turning OTS.

[cycloneye]

Next climate model to update will be the NMME next Monday and will have the JAS plots. The December one had this look:

[SFLcane]

Just abased on the precip look it surely looks like a stronger ridge could be around we shall see.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1743277305663791352

[cycloneye]

Just abased on the precip look it surely looks like a stronger ridge could be around we shall see.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1743277305663791352?s=20

Will be important the pace of the decaying of El Niño.

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1743279561893147115

[cycloneye]

NAO going negative is doing this to the waters.

[zzzh]

New NMME. Very favorable look.

[Hurricane2022]

https://i.imgur.com/1EPKquA.png
https://i.imgur.com/zxwsHnr.png
New NMME. Very favorable look.

Sept 1, 2024 - Tropical Storm Adria forms in the Atlantic Ocean; It could become a major hurricane as it moves towards the Caribbean Ocean

[CyclonicFury]

On paper, this is the most favorable Atlantic hurricane season look I have ever seen this far out. NMME actually trended to a slightly warmer AMO pattern than its December forecast, and gives a greater than 90% chance the MDR and Caribbean will be warmer than normal for JAS. Wow.

[chaser1]

More relevant then whether or not 2024 might turn out to be "hyperactive" is the idea that conditions might favor a particularly more deadly season due to a unusually high percentage of hurricanes to overall number of named T.S.'s, favorable atmospheric conditions at all levels, and perhaps a greater strength/depth of Central/W. Atlantic mid-level steering.

Well, congrats to those who anticipated the greater impact of record Atlantic SST's over the well-advertised moderate to strong El Nino that was expected for 2023

With the 2024 season on the horizon those same anomalous SST's are a potential factor along with the Pacific predicted to transition to ENSO neutral or even LA NINA conditions. When this climate pattern occurs a stronger easterly trades pattern is expected to set up across the E. Pacific. I am concerned that a similar strong easterly low latitude trade flow will similarly display across the Atlantic (and all N. Hemisphere basins) during the upcoming season? Naturally the proposition of predicting another 2005 season seem impossible given the very strong odds that would suggest "some" unforeseen atmospheric condition will ultimately lend toward less than perfect conditions within the Atlantic basin. So if I were to think that 2010 & 2011 might be potential analogue years to be considered for the upcoming Hurricane Season, and then consider the effect of stronger Atlantic easterly trades perhaps coupled with a stronger (and southward displaced) mid-level steering that might reflect an increased meridional steering regime, the following outcome comes to mind. Outside the few early anticipated busy season predictions (including potential heightened risk to the S.E. CONUS) I think that we could see a higher number of potential storm tracks impacting the Yucatan and Texas as well. Stronger mid-level heights & easterly trades (resulting in fast westward motion) might also somewhat hinder quite the number of stronger tropical cyclones to develop as far east due to a south suppressed ITCZ; That or Easterly sheared tropical waves further east within the Atlantic basin might combine to result in a fewer number of tropical cyclones to develop or track poleward within the sub tropic mid latitudes which did occur in 2005, 2010 & 2011. So, I think one plausible net result for the overall '24 season could suggest a tighter overall cluster of basin wide storm tracks (hopefully) resulting in a decreased threat to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast CONUS, but unfortunately setting up a potentially devastating impact to the Greater Antilles (especially Cuba), Mexico, Central America and especially the entire Gulf Coast (with perhaps the biggest bullseyes on S. Florida, W. Louisiana and Texas coastline?).

The Hurricane Season is a while off yet and our S2K poll doesn't kick off till March 1. For now, I don't see myself guessing "crazy" numbers like 25-35 named storms to occur but am leaning toward something more like 20/14/5 but with a caveat that the vast majority will ultimately impact land. That many hurricanes with landlocked tracks would prove very ugly if the season played out that way. Fortunately, our saving grace is that there typically is one or more atmospheric variables that end up playing into each years' tropical cyclone impact equation that our long-range predictive capacity prevents us from seeing this far out. When that happens Meteorologists and science weenies alike will then identify the verified condition (decoupled ENSO, dry mid-levels, SAL, SST's, QBO/Rosby Wave/Long wave patterns, TUTT, etc) and coin some new name or expression for that enhancing or disruptive condition, climate pattern or atmospheric hiccup where IT TOO will likely be excessively referenced or incorrectly emphasized for several years as the newest most relevant variable considered when predicting future hurricane season conditions across the tropics (just as I had for the expectedly marginalized El Nino season of '23 ).

[zzzh]

Actually when there is La Nina, trades are stronger in WPAC and CPAC with westerlies in EPAC. Also with an AMO and AMM like this I don't think the ITCZ will be suppressed.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1744074487723688364