2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[JetFuel_SE]

I’m probably in the minority on this but I really don’t care much about how warm the waters are east of 60W.

That's a big part of what controls how active the season is so it's not something to ignore

Yeah but if they form out there (depending on the steering, of course) a lot of those won’t impact land and your average person doesn’t give 2 cents about fish storms. Fish storms are for the true weather nerds to marvel over.

People should. Like 7-something people died in the US from Lorenzo in 2019.

[AnnularCane]

Can I say those famouus words? "Season Cancelled"

https://i.imgur.com/wLyMafw.png

Somebody has to say it sometime about this season, might as well be before it actually starts.

Especially if it actually does turn out to be like everybody is predicting.

[Teban54]

I’m probably in the minority on this but I really don’t care much about how warm the waters are east of 60W.

That area has the highest correlation with seasonal activity though.

To be fair, this early in the year, it does not.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1266107330417979392

While most of the Canary Current (areas with high correlation early in the year) doesn't belong to tropical Atlantic, it's still east of 60W. So it does support the original point that the entire Atlantic's SSTs have effects on seasonal activity and human impacts, not just areas west of 60W (Caribbean, Gulf, near US seaboard).

I’m probably in the minority on this but I really don’t care much about how warm the waters are east of 60W.

That's a big part of what controls how active the season is so it's not something to ignore

Yeah but if they form out there (depending on the steering, of course) a lot of those won’t impact land and your average person doesn’t give 2 cents about fish storms. Fish storms are for the true weather nerds to marvel over.

This is a very dangerous statement to make especially in a developing La Nina, since it has been mentioned repeatedly that historically, storms in La Nina seasons are less likely to recurve than El Nino seasons (the last season being a posterboy of the latter).

[Teban54]

Can I say those famouus words? "Season Cancelled"

https://i.imgur.com/wLyMafw.png

Somebody has to say it sometime about this season, might as well be before it actually starts.

Especially if it actually does turn out to be like everybody is predicting.

Reminded me of the Official 2010 Season Cancel Thread. Started off as a joke at the start of the season (and when Alex became a rare June Cat 2), but by the time the August SAL season came around, people started taking the season cancel calls too literally. A hyperactive season followed afterwards.

[Cpv17]

That area has the highest correlation with seasonal activity though.

To be fair, this early in the year, it does not.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1266107330417979392

While most of the Canary Current (areas with high correlation early in the year) doesn't belong to tropical Atlantic, it's still east of 60W. So it does support the original point that the entire Atlantic's SSTs have effects on seasonal activity and human impacts, not just areas west of 60W (Caribbean, Gulf, near US seaboard).

That's a big part of what controls how active the season is so it's not something to ignore

Yeah but if they form out there (depending on the steering, of course) a lot of those won’t impact land and your average person doesn’t give 2 cents about fish storms. Fish storms are for the true weather nerds to marvel over.

This is a very dangerous statement to make especially in a developing La Nina, since it has been mentioned repeatedly that historically, storms in La Nina seasons are less likely to recurve than El Nino seasons (the last season being a posterboy of the latter).

I definitely agree with you that it’s looking likely there will be less fish storms than normal this season. I’m really worried about areas along the Gulf.

[Hurricane2022]

I believe 2024 will be the perfect year for the storms described in this thread by users to come out of the Fairy Tale (or witches tale)
https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 1&t=119968

[zzzh]

We are half way through this trade surge and the Canary Current barely cooled . By day 6-8 the trades will be replaced by westerlies, I expect some warming then.

[WeatherBoy2000]

I believe 2024 will be the perfect year for the storms described in this thread by users to come out of the Fairy Tale (or witches tale)
https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 1&t=119968

we may well see a Category 5 hurricane make U.S. landfall, my guess is in the next 10 years

-Hurricane Mike Sep 19th 2018

Didn't have to wait long for that

[AnnularCane]

.

[AnnularCane]

I believe 2024 will be the perfect year for the storms described in this thread by users to come out of the Fairy Tale (or witches tale)
https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 1&t=119968

"A Cat 1 exploding into a major just off the SELA coast. There was already something like that to a lesser degree (and not a major) with Cindy in 2005, and it was something I had always worried about deep down when I lived down there. And I guess I still do since I have family down there, although I don't think about it as much. Not that I ever thought about it that much, but it was one of those deep-down concerns that would occasionally crop up."


I guess we should probably hope that mine doesn't happen.

[cycloneye]

About the steering.

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1761922898522951783




 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1761922901404750218

[SFLcane]

No climate model “ yet “ suggests a wide open recurve pattern this season. Infact quite the contrary

[CFLHurricane]

No climate model “ yet “ suggests a wide open recurve pattern this season. Infact quite the contrary

Long-term models are fun to play with but I find them less reliable than watching which way the first storms in May & June decide to go. For now the models do suggest a wetter pattern for the southeast, but we’ll see if the precipitation is frontal or tropical in origin.

[aspen]

No climate model “ yet “ suggests a wide open recurve pattern this season. Infact quite the contrary

It feels like every year there are predictions for strong ridging and less of a recurve pattern, and every year we get plenty of recurves. Most of the hits over the last few years have been from storms forming west of 60-70W, and most of the big ACE makers (Larry, Sam, Lee, etc) either recurved or went into Bermuda/Atlantic Canada instead of the islands/CONUS. So I’m not really going to trust most steering indicators this far out.

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1762151459905216950

[cycloneye]

CFSv2.

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1762223794490351630

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

:crazyeyes:

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1762151459905216950

Okay, but no reason to think this forecast applies to the summer.

[cycloneye]

The NAO factor.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1762139663744049513

[cycloneye]

I know that many members are waiting for the shoes to drop very soon and those are the climate models CanSIPS in a couple of days and NMME on March 8th, to see if they are going to continue showing the favorable patterns for the North Atlantic basin.

CanSIPS from Febuary update.




NMME from Febuary update.

[cycloneye]

Yikes, the MDR will get more warmer with the -NAO comming in March.