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TSR April 8, 2024 23 11 5
UA April 8, 2024 21 11 5
Moderator: S2k Moderators
cycloneye wrote:University of Arizona also has a high numbers forecast but lower ACE than other agencies and experts,
https://i.imgur.com/PlmTgc5.jpeg
https://has.arizona.edu/news/2024-hurri ... kyle-davis
Teban54 wrote:cycloneye wrote:University of Arizona also has a high numbers forecast but lower ACE than other agencies and experts,
https://i.imgur.com/PlmTgc5.jpeg
https://has.arizona.edu/news/2024-hurri ... kyle-davis
156 ACE for a 21/11/5 season seems very low, and is basically akin to the end of October 2020 before Eta, Theta and Iota, when the season was at 27/12/5 with a similar ACE. Are they expecting a similar west-based season where the hurricanes and majors only reach such intensities close to land (or are otherwise short-lived in general)? I find it hard to believe when 2024 has an even more pronounced +AMO signature than 2020, and stuff like typhoon-induced TUTTs (which really hurt 2020's CV season) are impossible to forecast this early.
StPeteMike wrote:al78, I know that it’s mentioned that it’s impractical to forecast the direction of the storms and the threat to CONUS. But is it in bad taste to suggest that with even a mild La Niña by peak season, higher than average SSTs, and forecast of relaxed tradewinds/shear in the Caribbean; the Gulf and East Coast should be prepared for a greater than normal risk this season than previous seasons? Obviously, factors like Saharan Dust and placement of the Bermuda High will matter as well and that’s harder to forecast this far out from the start of the season. But even compared to an average season, the risk to CONUS is greater with the 3 factors previously mentioned, correct?
aspen wrote:Teban54 wrote:cycloneye wrote:University of Arizona also has a high numbers forecast but lower ACE than other agencies and experts,
https://i.imgur.com/PlmTgc5.jpeg
https://has.arizona.edu/news/2024-hurri ... kyle-davis
156 ACE for a 21/11/5 season seems very low, and is basically akin to the end of October 2020 before Eta, Theta and Iota, when the season was at 27/12/5 with a similar ACE. Are they expecting a similar west-based season where the hurricanes and majors only reach such intensities close to land (or are otherwise short-lived in general)? I find it hard to believe when 2024 has an even more pronounced +AMO signature than 2020, and stuff like typhoon-induced TUTTs (which really hurt 2020's CV season) are impossible to forecast this early.
I wouldn’t be too surprised if we have another quantity-over-quality season (lower-than-expected but still high ACE). Maybe similar to 2020, the basin is so active that it ends up harming its overall quality in some way we won’t really know until the season is in full swing, like the WAM being on overdrive and pumping out so many broad waves. 2020, 2021, and 2023 all had lower-than-expected ACE compared to their NS totals, so perhaps 2024 follows suit.
Teban54 wrote:cycloneye wrote:University of Arizona also has a high numbers forecast but lower ACE than other agencies and experts,
https://i.imgur.com/PlmTgc5.jpeg
https://has.arizona.edu/news/2024-hurri ... kyle-davis
156 ACE for a 21/11/5 season seems very low, and is basically akin to the end of October 2020 before Eta, Theta and Iota, when the season was at 27/12/5 with a similar ACE. Are they expecting a similar west-based season where the hurricanes and majors only reach such intensities close to land (or are otherwise short-lived in general)? I find it hard to believe when 2024 has an even more pronounced +AMO signature than 2020, and stuff like typhoon-induced TUTTs (which really hurt 2020's CV season) are impossible to forecast this early.
LarryWx wrote:Teban54 wrote:cycloneye wrote:University of Arizona also has a high numbers forecast but lower ACE than other agencies and experts,
https://i.imgur.com/PlmTgc5.jpeg
https://has.arizona.edu/news/2024-hurri ... kyle-davis
156 ACE for a 21/11/5 season seems very low, and is basically akin to the end of October 2020 before Eta, Theta and Iota, when the season was at 27/12/5 with a similar ACE. Are they expecting a similar west-based season where the hurricanes and majors only reach such intensities close to land (or are otherwise short-lived in general)? I find it hard to believe when 2024 has an even more pronounced +AMO signature than 2020, and stuff like typhoon-induced TUTTs (which really hurt 2020's CV season) are impossible to forecast this early.
2010, an analog for several forecasters and a strong Niña that immediately followed a strong El Nino had a whopping 19/12/5 along with an ACE of “only” 165. With that in mind, I don’t see a 21/11/5 being too out of line with ACE of 156. And the aforementioned 2020’s 180 ACE for a 30/14/7 season doesn’t make 21/11/5 156 seem out of line. 1916’s 15/10/5 and ACE of 144 is another that tells me a 21/11/5 156 isn’t far-fetched.
CyclonicFury wrote:NC State University forecast is out
15-20 named storms
10-12 hurricanes
3-4 major hurricanes
https://news.ncsu.edu/2024/04/nc-state- ... ne-season/
The ratio of hurricanes to major hurricanes is a bit odd, also the named storm forecast is a bit lower than some other agencies.
CyclonicFury wrote:Michael Mann at the University of Pennsylvania has released his forecast, and it's the highest-ever from a credible forecasting agency. He is predicting a whopping 33 (27-39) named storms!
https://penntoday.upenn.edu/news/2024-t ... prediction
CyclonicFury wrote:Here's the full forecast from UPENN. Apparently it's based off a statistical model, which explains why it is so insanely high.
https://web.sas.upenn.edu/mannresearchg ... hurricane/University of Pennsylvania EES scientists Dr. Michael E. Mann and Shannon Christiansen, and Penn State ESSC alumnus Dr. Michael Kozar have released their seasonal prediction for the 2024 North Atlantic hurricane season, which officially starts on 1 June and runs through 30 November.
The prediction is for 33.1 +/- 5.8 total named tropical cyclones, which corresponds to a range between 27 and 39 storms, with a best estimate of 33 named storms. This prediction was made using the statistical model of Kozar et al. (2012, see PDF here). This statistical model builds upon the past work of Sabbatelli and Mann (2007, see PDF here) by considering a larger number of climate predictors and including corrections for the historical undercount of events (see footnotes).
The assumptions behind this forecast are (a) the persistence of current North Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (+1.9°C in April 2024 from NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch) throughout the 2024 hurricane season, (b) development of a moderate La Nina (Niño3.4 anomaly of -0.5°C) conditions in the equatorial Pacific in late Boreal summer and fall 2024 (ENSO forecasts here; we used mid-April 2023), and (c) climatological mean conditions for the North Atlantic Oscillation in Fall/Winter 2023-2024.
If neutral ENSO conditions (Niño3.4 anomaly of 0.0°C) take shape later in 2024, then the prediction will be lower: 30.5 +/- 5.5 storms (range of 25 – 36 storms, with a best guess of 31).
Using an alternative model that uses “relative” MDR SST (MDR SST with the average tropical mean SST subtracted) in place of MDR SST yields a lower prediction (19.9 +/- 4.5 total named storms). This alternative model also includes positive ENSO conditions.
crownweather wrote:CyclonicFury wrote:Here's the full forecast from UPENN. Apparently it's based off a statistical model, which explains why it is so insanely high.
https://web.sas.upenn.edu/mannresearchg ... hurricane/University of Pennsylvania EES scientists Dr. Michael E. Mann and Shannon Christiansen, and Penn State ESSC alumnus Dr. Michael Kozar have released their seasonal prediction for the 2024 North Atlantic hurricane season, which officially starts on 1 June and runs through 30 November.
The prediction is for 33.1 +/- 5.8 total named tropical cyclones, which corresponds to a range between 27 and 39 storms, with a best estimate of 33 named storms. This prediction was made using the statistical model of Kozar et al. (2012, see PDF here). This statistical model builds upon the past work of Sabbatelli and Mann (2007, see PDF here) by considering a larger number of climate predictors and including corrections for the historical undercount of events (see footnotes).
The assumptions behind this forecast are (a) the persistence of current North Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (+1.9°C in April 2024 from NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch) throughout the 2024 hurricane season, (b) development of a moderate La Nina (Niño3.4 anomaly of -0.5°C) conditions in the equatorial Pacific in late Boreal summer and fall 2024 (ENSO forecasts here; we used mid-April 2023), and (c) climatological mean conditions for the North Atlantic Oscillation in Fall/Winter 2023-2024.
If neutral ENSO conditions (Niño3.4 anomaly of 0.0°C) take shape later in 2024, then the prediction will be lower: 30.5 +/- 5.5 storms (range of 25 – 36 storms, with a best guess of 31).
Using an alternative model that uses “relative” MDR SST (MDR SST with the average tropical mean SST subtracted) in place of MDR SST yields a lower prediction (19.9 +/- 4.5 total named storms). This alternative model also includes positive ENSO conditions.
Interesting that almost all of the previous best guess forecasts were either pretty close to actual numbers or too low of a forecast. Exceptions were 2009, 2010, 2013 and 2016, but even these the forecast numbers were only 3-4 named storms too high.
JetFuel_SE wrote:crownweather wrote:CyclonicFury wrote:Here's the full forecast from UPENN. Apparently it's based off a statistical model, which explains why it is so insanely high.
https://web.sas.upenn.edu/mannresearchg ... hurricane/University of Pennsylvania EES scientists Dr. Michael E. Mann and Shannon Christiansen, and Penn State ESSC alumnus Dr. Michael Kozar have released their seasonal prediction for the 2024 North Atlantic hurricane season, which officially starts on 1 June and runs through 30 November.
The prediction is for 33.1 +/- 5.8 total named tropical cyclones, which corresponds to a range between 27 and 39 storms, with a best estimate of 33 named storms. This prediction was made using the statistical model of Kozar et al. (2012, see PDF here). This statistical model builds upon the past work of Sabbatelli and Mann (2007, see PDF here) by considering a larger number of climate predictors and including corrections for the historical undercount of events (see footnotes).
The assumptions behind this forecast are (a) the persistence of current North Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (+1.9°C in April 2024 from NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch) throughout the 2024 hurricane season, (b) development of a moderate La Nina (Niño3.4 anomaly of -0.5°C) conditions in the equatorial Pacific in late Boreal summer and fall 2024 (ENSO forecasts here; we used mid-April 2023), and (c) climatological mean conditions for the North Atlantic Oscillation in Fall/Winter 2023-2024.
If neutral ENSO conditions (Niño3.4 anomaly of 0.0°C) take shape later in 2024, then the prediction will be lower: 30.5 +/- 5.5 storms (range of 25 – 36 storms, with a best guess of 31).
Using an alternative model that uses “relative” MDR SST (MDR SST with the average tropical mean SST subtracted) in place of MDR SST yields a lower prediction (19.9 +/- 4.5 total named storms). This alternative model also includes positive ENSO conditions.
Interesting that almost all of the previous best guess forecasts were either pretty close to actual numbers or too low of a forecast. Exceptions were 2009, 2010, 2013 and 2016, but even these the forecast numbers were only 3-4 named storms too high.
Just to put things into perspective, 39 named storms would tie 1964's WPAC for the world record.
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