Expert Forecasts for the 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

[StPeteMike]

Kudos to both Teban and Larry on a very interesting, insightful, and respectful "point/counterpoint" consideration of CSU's April forecast!
It made for an enjoyable thought-provoking Sunday morning read

Agreed! There’s definitely a lot of variables to take in and figure out how they’ll impact this season.

[Lightning48]

Good morning & happy Eclipse day!!!-Hope everyone is well! What time does the TSR hurricane forecast come out today?

[zzzh]

TSR forecast: 23NS, 11H, 5MH, ACE 217!!!
https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRATLForecastApril2024.pdf

[zzzh]

Analog years: 1969, 1998, 2005 and 2010.

[SFLcane]

Can’t say i have ever seen such a forecast from them usually very conservative. Buckle up!

[chaser1]

Wait, TSR identical to CSU.... nearly identical to the S2K Poll average
Barring a monumental forecast fail, an unexpected deep W. Atlantic trough pattern, or near biblical Earth cooling volcanic eruption it's becoming increasingly evident that this Atlantic hurricane season could well inflict a level of "hurt" to W. Atlantic coastal (and inland) regions resulting in an impact to the highest number of population then ever before. Thank heaven ample warning can help mitigate casualty risk in the U.S. but those in the Caribbean and Central America don't have that same luxury of getting out of harm's way by simply getting in their SUV and driving a couple hundred miles away. Worse then the potential human toll, may be a catastrophic level of damage to multiple population centers, especially if multiple major hurricanes strike land. Let's home that reality doesn't match these "one for the books" predictions that are becoming all too ominous.

[al78]

Can’t say i have ever seen such a forecast from them usually very conservative. Buckle up!

Normally at this lead time there is considerable uncertainty in the primary climate factors of ENSO and MDR SSTs which is why the TSR forecast tends not to be extreme at either end. It is unusual at this lead time for such a strong consensus in the IRI models for at least weak if not moderate La Nina conditions given the normal spring predictability barrier, and I don't remember seeing such persistent warmth across the Atlantic as we've had over the last several months. To have forecasts for both climate factors going for such a strong enhancing effect on hurricane activity is highly unusual, I would say exceptional over the years TSR has been doing these forecasts. The only thing I can see that would really bust the forecast is either a 2013-style unusual subsidence and dry air over the tropical Atlantic or a 2022-style season with upper air interaction with the mid-latitudes imparting dry air and wind shear across the tropical Atlantic during peak season, but that is unpredictable at the moment and I have to go with a forecast based on how the Atlantic hurricane season historically reacts to both favourable ENSO and MDR SSTs.

[al78]

I should add that I didn't look at the CSU forecast until after I had got the numbers out for TSR so it is a coincidence and probably says something that we independently came to (for this lead time) a very similar extreme forecast.

[blp]

Can’t say i have ever seen such a forecast from them usually very conservative. Buckle up!

Normally at this lead time there is considerable uncertainty in the primary climate factors of ENSO and MDR SSTs which is why the TSR forecast tends not to be extreme at either end. It is unusual at this lead time for such a strong consensus in the IRI models for at least weak if not moderate La Nina conditions given the normal spring predictability barrier, and I don't remember seeing such persistent warmth across the Atlantic as we've had over the last several months. To have forecasts for both climate factors going for such a strong enhancing effect on hurricane activity is highly unusual, I would say exceptional over the years TSR has been doing these forecasts. The only thing I can see that would really bust the forecast is either a 2013-style unusual subsidence and dry air over the tropical Atlantic or a 2022-style season with upper air interaction with the mid-latitudes imparting dry air and wind shear across the tropical Atlantic during peak season, but that is unpredictable at the moment and I have to go with a forecast based on how the Atlantic hurricane season historically reacts to both favourable ENSO and MDR SSTs.

Thank you for the explanation and the forecast you provided. Very much appreciated.

[Teban54]

Someone compared the April 2024 TSR forecast to their historical forecasts, and found the only comparable ones are August 2020 and August 2005:
 https://x.com/AdamMcDoom/status/1777352462178898252

[cycloneye]

No change from JB about the hell season.

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1777337264487411834

[SFLcane]

Can’t say i have ever seen such a forecast from them usually very conservative. Buckle up!

Normally at this lead time there is considerable uncertainty in the primary climate factors of ENSO and MDR SSTs which is why the TSR forecast tends not to be extreme at either end. It is unusual at this lead time for such a strong consensus in the IRI models for at least weak if not moderate La Nina conditions given the normal spring predictability barrier, and I don't remember seeing such persistent warmth across the Atlantic as we've had over the last several months. To have forecasts for both climate factors going for such a strong enhancing effect on hurricane activity is highly unusual, I would say exceptional over the years TSR has been doing these forecasts. The only thing I can see that would really bust the forecast is either a 2013-style unusual subsidence and dry air over the tropical Atlantic or a 2022-style season with upper air interaction with the mid-latitudes imparting dry air and wind shear across the tropical Atlantic during peak season, but that is unpredictable at the moment and I have to go with a forecast based on how the Atlantic hurricane season historically reacts to both favourable ENSO and MDR SSTs.

Great stuff thanks for the reply appreciate your insights on S2K. It's going to be busy but the question is FOR WHO?

[ljmac75]

It's crazy that after 2005 it took 15 years for another season to break 20 named storms again (although we had 19 NS 3 years in a row in between), and now it looks likely that we'll reach that mark for the 4th time in the last 5 years. Let's hope for a recurve away from land kind of season and not a two Cat 5s in the Gulf of Mexico kind of season.

[al78]

Someone compared the April 2024 TSR forecast to their historical forecasts, and found the only comparable ones are August 2020 and August 2005:
 https://x.com/AdamMcDoom/status/1777352462178898252

By August we usually have a much better idea of what the SSTs and ENSO situation is going to be and there can be some insight from how much activity there has been prior to 1st August. If June-July has seen activity in the MDR, that frequently preceeds an active season. 2005 was so insanely active in June and July that the forecast for a record breaking season in early August was not that surprising. Early April forecasts are a different beast.

[al78]

It's crazy that after 2005 it took 15 years for another season to break 20 named storms again (although we had 19 NS 3 years in a row in between), and now it looks likely that we'll reach that mark for the 4th time in the last 5 years. Let's hope for a recurve away from land kind of season and not a two Cat 5s in the Gulf of Mexico kind of season.

You want a 2010-style season, not a 2004 or 2005 bruiser. We can but hope.

[StPeteMike]

al78, I know that it’s mentioned that it’s impractical to forecast the direction of the storms and the threat to CONUS. But is it in bad taste to suggest that with even a mild La Niña by peak season, higher than average SSTs, and forecast of relaxed tradewinds/shear in the Caribbean; the Gulf and East Coast should be prepared for a greater than normal risk this season than previous seasons? Obviously, factors like Saharan Dust and placement of the Bermuda High will matter as well and that’s harder to forecast this far out from the start of the season. But even compared to an average season, the risk to CONUS is greater with the 3 factors previously mentioned, correct?

[USTropics]

Forecast tracks and density plots for TSR analog years:



Forecast tracks and density plots for TSR+CSU analog years:

[cycloneye]

University of Arizona also has a high numbers forecast but lower ACE than other agencies and experts,



https://has.arizona.edu/news/2024-hurri ... kyle-davis

[zzzh]

Last year they went with 25/12/6 with ace 260 , no wander they are more conservative this year.

[Hurricane2022]

:uarrow: Last year they went with 25/12/6 with ace 260 , no wander they are more conservative this year.

That forecast was made in June. Earlier in April 2023 they went with an more reasonable forecast of 19/9/5.

...But anyway, I still imagine that, at the very least, they should combust in the next forecast. if last year the UA predicted 25/12/6 and 260 ACE, why wouldn't they also consider predicting something around 35/21/10 and 320 ACE this year??