2024 ENSO Updates: La Niña watch in effect

[weeniepatrol]

CPC weekly update has niño 3.4 at +1.3C and niño 1+2 is down to negative at -0.4C. Confirms that the days of El Niño are numbered.

https://i.imgur.com/1uN9Cks.jpeg

https://i.imgur.com/j4MlnW2.jpeg

https://i.imgur.com/nVvV6uZ.jpeg

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

First negative 1+2 sstas since at least a year.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1772678615156596955




 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1772678618247786666

[cycloneye]

Thru March 24.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1773798986102501530

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1773891740480790815

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1773841468857475472

[Kingarabian]

Subsurface is certainly resembling a La Nina. Let's see when the surface responds.

[cycloneye]

CPC weekly update has niño 3.4 down to +1.0C and niño 1+2 down to -0.4C.



https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Niña came in a little weaker on the CanSIPS.

[cycloneye]

The ONI for JFM is down to +1.5C.

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc ... ONI_v5.php

[Blown Away]

Trying to find if there is a correlation between the time of year the La Niña is officially declared and hurricane impacts on the CONUS… Seems SE CONUS hurricane impacts occur more often when La Niña is declared mid year…

[Kingarabian]

Models seem to take the MJO back over the WPAC fairly quickly.

This is (again) likely overdone by the GFS:

[cycloneye]

Well, the SOI is going down in the negative side and that could signal a slower transition to neutral and later to la niña.

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

[zzzh]

I mean it's just MJO doing its thing,

[USTropics]

Trying to find if there is a correlation between the time of year the La Niña is officially declared and hurricane impacts on the CONUS… Seems SE CONUS hurricane impacts occur more often when La Niña is declared mid year…

Here is a break down of plots for each season when La Nina was officially declared. Geodensity plots are obviously correlated/sensitive to n years/n storm tracks, but should give a crude outline (only plotted for seasons with 3+ years).

[cycloneye]

Well, the SOI is going down in the negative side and that could signal a slower transition to neutral and later to la niña.

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

https://i.imgur.com/keOHwly.jpeg

Down again on april 6. The daily contribution is at -18.32 and that is lower than yesterdays -16.30. Is there something going on as it keeps falling in the negative?

[USTropics]

Well, the SOI is going down in the negative side and that could signal a slower transition to neutral and later to la niña.

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

https://i.imgur.com/keOHwly.jpeg

Down again on april 6. The daily contribution is at -18.32 and that is lower than yesterdays -16.30. Is there something going on as it keeps falling in the negative?

Olga has decreased the background pressure in this region (including Darwin) in combination with a strong cutoff low that traversed across Australia in the past 3-4 days:


Meanwhile, Tahiti has been experiencing pretty significant high pressure anomalies over the past few days:


GFS and ECMWF both have a deepening trough that forms just south of Tahiti lowering pressures next week, which should cause some rebound in the SOI (we'll see how far north it extends):

[cycloneye]

CFSv2 is less bullish to have a strong la niña. Weak to moderate is now what it has for JAS.

[cycloneye]

The CPC weekly ENSO update has Niño 3.4 up from +1.0C to +1.2C, but it will begin to drop very soon as the grapfics point out.







https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

[Teban54]

 https://x.com/WxPatel/status/1777061281649795113