2024 ENSO Updates: La Niña watch in effect

[869MB]

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1764424147659018381

That's so not cool at all

The index will show negative as long as the Japan-Aleutuans belt remains warm, even if the actual horseshoe itself isn't so cool.

LOL, I literally laughed out loud. I think you may have misunderstood me, so I guess I should have expounded on my previous post. I was just voicing an opinion about that PDO trend itself over the past few years. That -PDO coupled with the back-to-back-to-back La Ninas has played a significant role in the relatively drier-than-normal weather pattern here in SE TX & SC TX and I'm so sick of it. Though less amplified, the fact that this negative PDO trend continues into 2024 with a Neutral ENSO right around the corner and eventually another forthcoming dreaded La Nina, the overall long-term precipitation pattern for my area looks bleak going into 2025, and possibly 2026 as well, with a fully-coupled La Nina base state established by then.

Nonetheless, concerning this thread, I know some members are a little giddy regarding the prospects of a possible continued -PDO, Cool Neutral/Weak La Nina, and Warm AMO combo going into the peak of the 2024 Hurricane Season. So from now on, I'll try to keep the ramifications of the ENSO state/PDO on my local weather to a minimum since no one really cares when all is said and done.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

That's so not cool at all

The index will show negative as long as the Japan-Aleutuans belt remains warm, even if the actual horseshoe itself isn't so cool.

LOL, I literally laughed out loud. I think you may have misunderstood me, so I guess I should have expounded on my previous post. I was just voicing an opinion about that PDO trend itself over the past few years. That -PDO coupled with the back-to-back-to-back La Ninas has played a significant role in the relatively drier-than-normal weather pattern here in SE TX & SC TX and I'm so sick of it. Though less amplified, the fact that this negative PDO trend continues into 2024 with a Neutral ENSO right around the corner and eventually another forthcoming dreaded La Nina, the overall long-term precipitation pattern for my area looks bleak going into 2025, and possibly 2026 as well, with a fully-coupled La Nina base state established by then.

Nonetheless, concerning this thread, I know some members are a little giddy regarding the prospects of a possible continued -PDO, Cool Neutral/Weak La Nina, and Warm AMO combo going into the peak of the 2024 Hurricane Season. So from now on, I'll try to keep the ramifications of the ENSO state/PDO on my local weather to a minimum since no one really cares when all is said and done.

Ah, I hear you, my bad. Yeah it's not the greatest pattern if you're looking for cooler, rainier weather in TX, even with El Niño in place. It's been going on for a while, I can imagine it's not fun.

[869MB]

The index will show negative as long as the Japan-Aleutuans belt remains warm, even if the actual horseshoe itself isn't so cool.

LOL, I literally laughed out loud. I think you may have misunderstood me, so I guess I should have expounded on my previous post. I was just voicing an opinion about that PDO trend itself over the past few years. That -PDO coupled with the back-to-back-to-back La Ninas has played a significant role in the relatively drier-than-normal weather pattern here in SE TX & SC TX and I'm so sick of it. Though less amplified, the fact that this negative PDO trend continues into 2024 with a Neutral ENSO right around the corner and eventually another forthcoming dreaded La Nina, the overall long-term precipitation pattern for my area looks bleak going into 2025, and possibly 2026 as well, with a fully-coupled La Nina base state established by then.

Nonetheless, concerning this thread, I know some members are a little giddy regarding the prospects of a possible continued -PDO, Cool Neutral/Weak La Nina, and Warm AMO combo going into the peak of the 2024 Hurricane Season. So from now on, I'll try to keep the ramifications of the ENSO state/PDO on my local weather to a minimum since no one really cares when all is said and done.

Ah, I hear you, my bad. Yeah it's not the greatest pattern if you're looking for cooler, rainier weather in TX, even with El Niño in place. It's been going on for a while, I can imagine it's not fun.

Heck no it's not fun at all! The tropics may serve as a source of precipitation relief during the hurricane season for my area (hopefully minus any significant cyclones). But unfortunately, after that, it appears to be a repeat of 2020 through 2023 again. The 2024/2025 Winter may be fun for portions of the Southern Plains/SE while the 2025 Spring Severe Weather season may be active for the Central Plains, Mid-West & portions of the SE US but more on that later this year.

[cycloneye]

The Aussies have Neutral by May, but dont go beyond July like NOAA does. This agency is the slowest to make the transition to La Niña.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

Neutral ENSO likely during autumn

ENSO Outlook
El Niño persists, although a steady weakening trend is evident in its oceanic indicators. Climate models indicate sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific are expected to continue declining and are forecast to return to ENSO-neutral in the southern hemisphere autumn 2024.

Atmospheric indicators are mixed but are consistent with a steadily weakening El Niño. Cloudiness near the equatorial Date Line has decreased over the last fortnight, returning to the climatological average. The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is currently less than -7.0, characteristic of an El Niño state, but indicative of ENSO-neutral conditions over the 60- and 90-day periods. Temporary fluctuations of ENSO atmospheric indicators are common during summer and are not an indication of El Niño strength.

International climate models suggest the central tropical Pacific Ocean will continue to cool in the coming months, with four out of seven climate models indicating the central Pacific is likely to return to neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) levels by the end of April (i.e., neither El Niño nor La Niña), and all models indicating neutral in May. ENSO predictions made in autumn tend to have lower accuracy than predictions made at other times of the year. This means that current forecasts of the ENSO state beyond May should be used with caution.

Based on the historical record from 1900, around 50% of El Niño events have been followed by an ENSO-neutral year, and 40 to 50% have been followed by La Niña. However, global oceans have warmed significantly over the past 50 years. The oceans have been the warmest on record globally between April 2023 and January 2024. These changes may impact future predictions of ENSO events, if based solely on historical climate variability.

[cycloneye]

ECMWF in the March update is bullish on La Niña by July.

[zzzh]

Upwelling Kelvin Wave finally reached surface. Nino 3 dropped by nearly 0.2C today.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

https://i.imgur.com/zwZOrMT.png
Upwelling Kelvin Wave finally reached surface. Nino 3 dropped by nearly 0.2C today.

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1765078576549048652

[cycloneye]

Niño 1+2 in a crash.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/wxmann/status/1765080355609215077

[cycloneye]

Probably worth watching if the WPAC tries to wake up later this month or in April as TC activity there would prolong WWB activity and push back the timeline a little bit for La Nina to come.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1765879673597100450




 https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1765880229187158519

[cycloneye]

The blues keep rising to the surface.

[cycloneye]

The 30 day SOI index has been rising for the past 2 weeks and is another sign that El Niño is fading.

[Kingarabian]

Strong trade burst on the way followed by a strong WPAC WWB -- likely too far west to do anything but could send warmers subsurface anomalies east.



Will be important for this trade burst to reinforce the cool subsurface anomalies if there's going to be a quick transition to La Nina. Weak warm pool is setting up beneath the WPAC and is moving east so that could eventually slow the cooling of the Nino regions.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1767027429405528106

[TheWisestofAll]

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1767027429405528106

Reply below clears things up
 https://twitter.com/IsRight14/status/1767148961972785554

[cycloneye]

The weekly CPC update of 3/11/24 has Niño 3.4 at +1.4C and Niño 3 down to +1.0C.

The latest weekly
SST departures are:
Niño 4 1.1ºC
Niño 3.4 1.4ºC
Niño 3 1.0ºC
Niño 1+2 1.0ºC

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

[cycloneye]

There goes niño 3.4 downward as the eastward wind burst makes it's effect.

[cycloneye]

Interesting this about the "Niño Relative Index" from model C3S.


 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1767607346778575364

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1768088990786232488




 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1768088992786927904