2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll: 111 members are participating

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AxaltaRacing24
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll: Closes at midnight EDT

#381 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Fri May 31, 2024 5:16 pm

23 Storms

11 Hurricanes

5 Majors

ACE: 170
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll: Closes at midnight EDT

#382 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 31, 2024 5:20 pm

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:23 Storms

11 Hurricanes

5 Majors

ACE: 170


Added as #108 on the list.
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#383 Postby psyclone » Fri May 31, 2024 6:58 pm

psyclone wrote:2
1
0
Ace of 22


Let's go
20
10
5
Should be a spicy season
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#384 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 31, 2024 7:12 pm

psyclone wrote:
psyclone wrote:2
1
0
Ace of 22


Let's go
20
10
5
Should be a spicy season


#109 on the list.
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll: Closes at midnight EDT

#385 Postby typhoonty » Fri May 31, 2024 9:38 pm

23/13/7
ACE 205

lack of subtropical acitivity keeps NS below 25 but huge ACE producers with a general west based season (few early recurves)
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll: Closes at midnight EDT

#386 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri May 31, 2024 9:39 pm

Sticking with my preliminary.
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll: Closes at midnight EDT

#387 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 31, 2024 9:44 pm

typhoonty wrote:23/13/7
ACE 205

lack of subtropical acitivity keeps NS below 25 but huge ACE producers with a general west based season (few early recurves)


#110 on list.
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll: Closes at midnight EDT

#388 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 31, 2024 9:45 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Sticking with my preliminary.


Done.
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll: Closes at midnight EDT

#389 Postby Chris90 » Fri May 31, 2024 9:53 pm

I'm #25 on the list and I'm going to lock in my numbers as final.
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll: Closes at midnight EDT

#390 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 31, 2024 9:58 pm

Chris90 wrote:I'm #25 on the list and I'm going to lock in my numbers as final.


Done.
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll: (The best poll in the internet)

#391 Postby TheAustinMan » Fri May 31, 2024 10:01 pm

TheAustinMan wrote: It's early May, the seasonal computer forecast guidance is in, and we're getting within striking distance of the hurricane season, so it's time to revisit my forecast from earlier. I'll be revising my numbers (I'm Number 19) to
  • Preliminary
  • 19 named storms
  • 12 hurricanes
  • 5 major hurricanes
  • ACE = 195

As expected, not a whole lot has changed since early May, so these values are final. (#19)

While steering is probably even more difficult to predict than seasonal activity as a whole (which is already difficult to pin down), historical activity and analogs for this season's SST look appear to suggest the following areas highlighted in red may be the most likely areas for enhanced tropical cyclone activity this season. But, in general, an active season increases the probability for tropical activity along all coasts.
Image
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll: (The best poll in the internet)

#392 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 31, 2024 10:06 pm

TheAustinMan wrote:
TheAustinMan wrote: It's early May, the seasonal computer forecast guidance is in, and we're getting within striking distance of the hurricane season, so it's time to revisit my forecast from earlier. I'll be revising my numbers (I'm Number 19) to
  • Preliminary
  • 19 named storms
  • 12 hurricanes
  • 5 major hurricanes
  • ACE = 195

As expected, not a whole lot has changed since early May, so these values are final. (#19)

While steering is probably even more difficult to predict than seasonal activity as a whole (which is already difficult to pin down), historical activity and analogs for this season's SST look appear to suggest the following areas highlighted in red may be the most likely areas for enhanced tropical cyclone activity this season. But, in general, an active season increases the probability for tropical activity along all coasts.
https://i.imgur.com/9xBVoXU.png
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Done. Next post from you will be the final stats of the poll.
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Re: Storm2k 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#393 Postby WoodberryWx » Fri May 31, 2024 10:36 pm

WoodberryWx wrote:15/7/4 141 ACE

Preliminary



Finalizing my forecast to 21/11/6 190 ACE
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Re: Storm2k 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#394 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 31, 2024 10:46 pm

WoodberryWx wrote:
WoodberryWx wrote:15/7/4 141 ACE

Preliminary



Finalizing my forecast to 21/11/6 190 ACE


Done.
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll: Closes at midnight EDT

#395 Postby toad strangler » Fri May 31, 2024 10:49 pm

21/9/5

ACE: 187

FINAL
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll: Closes at midnight EDT

#396 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 31, 2024 10:52 pm

toad strangler wrote:21/9/5

ACE: 187

FINAL


#111.
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll: Has closed with 111 participants.

#397 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 31, 2024 11:03 pm

Thanks to all that have participated in this 2024 S2K poll. Now let's see who will nail the numbers or get close to the real final ones that the season brings. And thanks to USTropics and TheAustinMan for posting the stats.
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll: Has closed with 111 participants

#398 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 01, 2024 6:47 am

The final stats of the poll are at the thread with a sticky, where the members can make comments about the poll and the stats. https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 2#p3066052
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