2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll: (The best poll in the internet)

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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#101 Postby Kazmit » Fri Mar 15, 2024 10:45 pm

I'm gonna go with 23/10/5 preliminary. This is the earliest I've ever posted my predictions, but it seems pretty obvious this is gonna be a big year.
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#102 Postby Teban54 » Fri Mar 15, 2024 11:40 pm

TheAustinMan wrote:The 2024 Storm2K poll has been nothing short of anomalous, as far as expected activity is concerned. Using 1981-2010 averages, tropical storms produce 1.8 ACE, non-major hurricanes produce 7.7 ACE, and major hurricanes produce 24.1 ACE each, on average. With those values, the mean "climatology-based" ACE based on the guesses in this poll so far is 203.7 (for comparison, the average ACE from those who did provide ACE values is 199.7).

That value is far and away the highest in the over two decade history of this poll thus far, and it's not particularly close. It's ahead of the previous record holder (2006) by the equivalent of nearly an entire major hurricane, which is a lot from an averaging perspective.

As it currently stands, the 2024 poll has the record high in all categories (named storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes, and ACE).

https://i.imgur.com/3yHQQxo.png

One thing that caught my eye is how 2023's poll result was the 4th lowest. It's even below 2018, a year that had a similar developing El Nino but cold MDR SSTAs, compared to 2023's burning ones; 2018 also saw almost all experts being pessimistic, whereas 2023's expert forecasts were much more aggressive than Storm2K's. I'd guess 2022 being unexpectedly slow probably made people more conservative. (Speaking of 2022, its position as the third highest, tied with 2020, is also bizarre.)

Kazmit wrote:I'm gonna go with 23/10/5 preliminary. This is the earliest I've ever posted my predictions, but it seems pretty obvious this is gonna be a big year.

I mean, this is the earliest everyone has ever posted their predictions, by virtue of the poll not even being open on this date in the years before :lol:
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#103 Postby LemieT » Sat Mar 16, 2024 1:34 pm

Teban54 wrote:
TheAustinMan wrote:The 2024 Storm2K poll has been nothing short of anomalous, as far as expected activity is concerned. Using 1981-2010 averages, tropical storms produce 1.8 ACE, non-major hurricanes produce 7.7 ACE, and major hurricanes produce 24.1 ACE each, on average. With those values, the mean "climatology-based" ACE based on the guesses in this poll so far is 203.7 (for comparison, the average ACE from those who did provide ACE values is 199.7).

That value is far and away the highest in the over two decade history of this poll thus far, and it's not particularly close. It's ahead of the previous record holder (2006) by the equivalent of nearly an entire major hurricane, which is a lot from an averaging perspective.

As it currently stands, the 2024 poll has the record high in all categories (named storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes, and ACE).

https://i.imgur.com/3yHQQxo.png

One thing that caught my eye is how 2023's poll result was the 4th lowest. It's even below 2018, a year that had a similar developing El Nino but cold MDR SSTAs, compared to 2023's burning ones; 2018 also saw almost all experts being pessimistic, whereas 2023's expert forecasts were much more aggressive than Storm2K's. I'd guess 2022 being unexpectedly slow probably made people more conservative. (Speaking of 2022, its position as the third highest, tied with 2020, is also bizarre.)

Kazmit wrote:I'm gonna go with 23/10/5 preliminary. This is the earliest I've ever posted my predictions, but it seems pretty obvious this is gonna be a big year.

I mean, this is the earliest everyone has ever posted their predictions, by virtue of the poll not even being open on this date in the years before :lol:


I find this numbers thing so incredibly fun and also deeply interesting. The observation of the hesitancy brought on in 2023 based on the complete failure of most forecasts in '22 is quite a takeaway. I also realize that looking at the effect SSTa played last season, in the face of a mighty El Nino, seems to have given a lot of people confidence to go hard in their forecasts for this year.

I feel like the last 5 seasons have given us a larger than normal range of dynamic possibilities and have collectively advanced the passion for deeper study into what really makes a hurricane season tick.
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#104 Postby TheWisestofAll » Sat Mar 16, 2024 3:52 pm

26 Named Storms
15 Hurricanes
7 Major Hurricanes
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#105 Postby cycloneye » Sat Mar 16, 2024 3:58 pm

TheWisestofAll wrote:26 Named Storms
15 Hurricanes
7 Major Hurricanes


You are #43 on the list.
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#106 Postby Hurricane2022 » Sat Mar 16, 2024 4:18 pm

We already have 43 members participating in this Poll after 6 days of its opening. I think there's a good chance we'll reach 100 members by at least mid-April :sun:
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#107 Postby cycloneye » Sat Mar 16, 2024 6:22 pm

My ultimate goal is to reach 200 participants, so we will see if it happens, but the early vibes are good. :D
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#108 Postby cycloneye » Sun Mar 17, 2024 12:32 pm

Here is the countdown for the poll to close on May 31rst at midnight EDT.

https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/g ... sive&csz=1
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#109 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Mon Mar 18, 2024 8:38 am

cycloneye wrote:Here is the countdown for the poll to close on May 31rst at midnight EDT.

https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/g ... sive&csz=1

You do like to bring the drama with those countdown timers :lol: :lol: :eek:
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#110 Postby aspen » Mon Mar 18, 2024 8:40 am

20/8/3, 150 ACE (preliminary).

Going a little conservative, if you can even call a 20 NS prediction that lol.
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#111 Postby cycloneye » Mon Mar 18, 2024 9:27 am

aspen wrote:20/8/3, 150 ACE (preliminary).

Going a little conservative, if you can even call a 20 NS prediction that lol.


You are #44 on the list.
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#112 Postby cycloneye » Tue Mar 19, 2024 12:24 pm

It was expected that the pace of new participants is not a fast one because is still far from May 31rst and this poll began more early. I expect that things will begin to pick up very soon as more updates from the climate models are available in the comming weeks. Also, the experts and private firms will begin to release their forecasts starting next week with Accuweather on the 27th and will be followed on April 4th from CSU and on April 8th from TSR. On April 11th will be the release from CPC of the April ENSO update when there is a possibility that they may announce that El Niño ends and many folks are also waiting for that. Those who may be in waiting mode, can post preliminary numbers and later update them.

March 27= Accuweather
April 4= CSU
April 8= TSR
April 11= CPC April ENSO update
May 9= CPC May ENSO update
May 23= NOAA
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#113 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue Mar 19, 2024 12:41 pm

cycloneye wrote:It was expected that the pace of new participants is not a fast one because is still far from May 31rst and this poll began more early. I expect that things will begin to pick up very soon as more updates from the climate models are available in the comming weeks. Also, the experts and private firms will begin to release their forecasts starting next week with Accuweather on the 27th and will be followed on April 4th from CSU and on April 8th from TSR. On April 11th will be the release from CPC of the April ENSO update when there is a possibility that they may announce that El Niño ends and many folks are also waiting for that. Those who may be in waiting mode, can post preliminary numbers and later update them.

March 27= Accuweather
April 4= CSU
April 8= TSR
April 11= CPC April ENSO update
May 23= NOAA

Where did you hear NOAA is releasing their forecast on May 9? They usually release their forecast the week before Memorial Day.
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#114 Postby cycloneye » Tue Mar 19, 2024 12:52 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:
cycloneye wrote:It was expected that the pace of new participants is not a fast one because is still far from May 31rst and this poll began more early. I expect that things will begin to pick up very soon as more updates from the climate models are available in the comming weeks. Also, the experts and private firms will begin to release their forecasts starting next week with Accuweather on the 27th and will be followed on April 4th from CSU and on April 8th from TSR. On April 11th will be the release from CPC of the April ENSO update when there is a possibility that they may announce that El Niño ends and many folks are also waiting for that. Those who may be in waiting mode, can post preliminary numbers and later update them.

March 27= Accuweather
April 4= CSU
April 8= TSR
April 11= CPC April ENSO update
May 23= NOAA

Where did you hear NOAA is releasing their forecast on May 9? They usually release their forecast the week before Memorial Day.


Fixed the date as added the CPC May ENSO one. :D Is going to be on May 23.
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#115 Postby cycloneye » Wed Mar 20, 2024 9:59 am

Who will be #45? :bored:
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#116 Postby Gums » Wed Mar 20, 2024 4:47 pm

Salute!

Gonna go higher than I should but lean toward many storms versus a lot of big ones. am thinking back to 1995:

22 named
10 hurricanes
5 major

Gums predicts...
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#117 Postby cycloneye » Wed Mar 20, 2024 4:53 pm

Gums wrote:Salute!

Gonna go higher than I should but lean toward many storms versus a lot of big ones. am thinking back to 1995:

22 named
10 hurricanes
5 major

Gums predicts...


You are #45 on the list.
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#118 Postby Chemmers » Thu Mar 21, 2024 6:53 am

Think it will be a big year I am going with

21 named
11 hurricanes
8 major
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#119 Postby cycloneye » Thu Mar 21, 2024 7:26 am

Chemmers wrote:Think it will be a big year I am going with

21 named
11 hurricanes
8 major


You are #46 on the list.
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#120 Postby cycloneye » Fri Mar 22, 2024 10:29 am

Let's see if after the weathertiger outlook is up at the experts forecasts thread, the poll gains activity.
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