2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll: (The best poll in the internet)

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Hurricane2022
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Re: Storm2k 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#61 Postby Hurricane2022 » Mon Mar 11, 2024 10:42 am

29 TS/17 H/8 MH.........preliminary
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Re: Storm2k 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#62 Postby mcheer23 » Mon Mar 11, 2024 10:43 am

24/8/4 200 ACE

Preliminary
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Re: Storm2k 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#63 Postby cycloneye » Mon Mar 11, 2024 11:00 am

Up to 31 participants. The average of the numbers so far is 23/12/6.
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Re: Storm2k 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#64 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Mon Mar 11, 2024 12:56 pm

I think I'll lower my ACE prediction slightly to 190, just to be a little more realistic I suppose.
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Re: Storm2k 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#65 Postby cycloneye » Mon Mar 11, 2024 2:58 pm

DorkyMcDorkface wrote:I think I'll lower my ACE prediction slightly to 190, just to be a little more realistic I suppose.


Changed it.
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Re: Storm2k 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#66 Postby Steve » Mon Mar 11, 2024 3:18 pm

cycloneye wrote:Up to 31 participants. The average of the numbers so far is 23/12/6.


ACE in at 201.435 for those who put a value on it. 200+ ACE seasons are relatively rare. 1933, 2005, 1893, 1926, 1995, 2004, 2017 AND 1950 exceeded 200. I don't know anything about 1926 or 1893 (except the Caminada storm), but the rest are all memorable seasons.
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Re: Storm2k 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#67 Postby Hurricane2022 » Mon Mar 11, 2024 3:20 pm

So I would like to add an ACE prediction to my bet. #30 ACE 245
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Re: Storm2k 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#68 Postby cycloneye » Mon Mar 11, 2024 3:40 pm

Hurricane2022 wrote:So I would like to add an ACE prediction to my bet. #30 ACE 245



Added the ACE.
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Re: Storm2k 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#69 Postby KN2731 » Mon Mar 11, 2024 8:32 pm

Hello, haven't managed to post here in a long time - thought I'd lost the account when I got logged out but by some miracle managed to remember the password a good 1.5 years later...

Having gone way too high for my last poll in 2022, I'm going to lower my expectations this time round - I'm thinking 2024 ends up with the same warm-everywhere look in 2020 that favours quantity over quality, so 23/10/4 with 165 ACE is my guess for now. I'll see if the SST pattern starts to lock in by late May and update accordingly.
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Re: Storm2k 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#70 Postby cycloneye » Mon Mar 11, 2024 8:40 pm

KN2731 wrote:Hello, haven't managed to post here in a long time - thought I'd lost the account when I got logged out but by some miracle managed to remember the password a good 1.5 years later...

Having gone way too high for my last poll in 2022, I'm going to lower my expectations this time round - I'm thinking 2024 ends up with the same warm-everywhere look in 2020 that favours quantity over quality, so 23/10/4 with 165 ACE is my guess for now. I'll see if the SST pattern starts to lock in by late May and update accordingly.


Good to have you back. You are #32 on the list.
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Re: Storm2k 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#71 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Mon Mar 11, 2024 9:02 pm

Steve wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Up to 31 participants. The average of the numbers so far is 23/12/6.


I don't know anything about 1926.


I just looked at it (and mind you in 1926 they might have missed one or two) There were just ELEVEN storms that generated ACE of 230!!!
Had lots of long tracked majors. Hard to imagine 11 storms could do that
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Re: Storm2k 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#72 Postby cycloneye » Mon Mar 11, 2024 10:04 pm

Ok folks. Is time to go to bed, so will add in the morning, any member who posts in the overninight hours. The participants are 32 until this point.
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Re: Storm2k 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#73 Postby cycloneye » Tue Mar 12, 2024 5:18 am

Good morning. I will be in and out so, dont worry if you are not added fast.
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Re: Storm2k 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#74 Postby cycloneye » Tue Mar 12, 2024 8:35 pm

The poll remains with 32 participants as no new member has posted numbers today. Before I go to bed around 11 PM EDT, let's see if someone posts numbers.
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Re: Storm2k 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#75 Postby penguinzee » Tue Mar 12, 2024 9:27 pm

Finally got the time to do this (playing catchup from the weekend camping!) Here goes my amateur (slightly educated) guess...

27 named storms
16 Hurricanes
7 Majors
210 ACE

As well I think we're going to see 3 landfalls in the ConUS... GoM, likely Louisiana/East TX, SE FL, and a scraper along the east coast, starting around Brevard Co. FL to Charleston, SC MOL.Personally I hope I'm wrong on all this to the high side...
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Re: Storm2k 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#76 Postby cycloneye » Tue Mar 12, 2024 10:01 pm

Bed time for me. The poll has 33 participants on the list and any members that may post numbers in the overnight hours, will be added in the morning.
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Re: Storm2k 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#77 Postby cycloneye » Wed Mar 13, 2024 4:56 pm

So far today, no new members have posted numbers and the poll has 33 members on the list. Hopefully, it gets new members posting before I go to bed. :D
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Re: Storm2k 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#78 Postby cycloneye » Wed Mar 13, 2024 10:00 pm

Poll remains with 33 participants as I go to bed.
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Re: Storm2k 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#79 Postby Teban54 » Wed Mar 13, 2024 10:10 pm

I wonder if some posters who only start browsing the forum closer to the hurricane season have not been aware of the early opening of this year's forecast poll.
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Re: Storm2k 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll

#80 Postby AtlanticWind » Wed Mar 13, 2024 11:30 pm

Prelim numbers. 22/11/5 184 ACE

I will likely raise mine if things continue with likely La Niña
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