2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll
19/9/4
Ace 184
We will probably have a caribbean cat5
A landfall of at least one major hurricanes on the gulf coast
Probably top 2-3 cape verde seasons of the past 30 years...close to 2004 and 2017 in nature.
Ace 184
We will probably have a caribbean cat5
A landfall of at least one major hurricanes on the gulf coast
Probably top 2-3 cape verde seasons of the past 30 years...close to 2004 and 2017 in nature.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll
Sciencerocks wrote:19/9/4
Ace 184
We will probably have a caribbean cat5
A landfall of at least one major hurricanes on the gulf coast
Probably top 2-3 cape verde seasons of the past 30 years...close to 2004 and 2017 in nature.
Final or preliminary?
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll
cycloneye wrote:Sciencerocks wrote:19/9/4
Ace 184
We will probably have a caribbean cat5
A landfall of at least one major hurricanes on the gulf coast
Probably top 2-3 cape verde seasons of the past 30 years...close to 2004 and 2017 in nature.
Final or preliminary?
Final
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll
Sciencerocks wrote:cycloneye wrote:Sciencerocks wrote:19/9/4
Ace 184
We will probably have a caribbean cat5
A landfall of at least one major hurricanes on the gulf coast
Probably top 2-3 cape verde seasons of the past 30 years...close to 2004 and 2017 in nature.
Final or preliminary?
Final
Ok, done.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll
I have my numbers as preliminary, because want to wait for the april and may runs of all the climate models NMME, ECMWF, C3S, UKMET, CFS and CanSips to see if they continue with the very favorable patterns or there are some changes. The may runs come well before the May 31rst closing date.
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll
18/11/4 ACE 175 FINAL
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M a r k
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- weeniepatrol
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll
21/10/5 ACE 170 prelim
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll
Preliminary: 25/13/6 ACE of 216
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- SFLcane
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll
USTropics wrote:Preliminary: 25/13/6 ACE of 216
Woah! You know this season means business when you see numbers like this from USTropics.
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- SFLcane
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll
Here it goes guys!
22/10/5 ACE 210
22/10/5 ACE 210
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- ElectricStorm
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Re: 2024 Storm2k North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll
18/10/4 ACE 155 preliminary
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- cycloneye
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Re: Storm2k 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll
Will be back shortly after I walk the dog to continue to add members. The poll is with 16 members participating at this point.
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Re: Storm2k 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll
i was forced by other people to make this: 36/17/9 - Preliminary
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Re: Storm2k 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll
mixedDanilo.E wrote:i was forced by other people to make this: 36/17/9 - Preliminary
I will make an actual reasonable prediction in April.
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Re: Storm2k 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll
Preliminary
24/13/6
24/13/6
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Alicia, Allison, Ike, Harvey
- cycloneye
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Re: Storm2k 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll
mixedDanilo.E wrote:i was forced by other people to make this: 36/17/9 - Preliminary
Dont have to be forced by anyone. Have your own mind to have the numbers.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Storm2k 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll
Up to 18 now. Like it starting at a good pace for being the first day open.
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Re: Storm2k 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll
SFLcane wrote:USTropics wrote:Preliminary: 25/13/6 ACE of 216
Woah! You know this season means business when you see numbers like this from USTropics.
I will do a more indepth analysis of the predictors I used next week, but I picked 5 analog seasons based on: (1) previous year being a strong El Nino that transitioned to moderate-strong La Nina by summer, (2) +SSTA regime that was focused in the deep tropics/MDR, (3) warm Atlantic Canary current in Spring, (4) reduced trade winds in the months of Feb-May, and (5) active western African monsoon/enhanced omega values over Africa.
My 5 analogs (in descending order by year):
2020
2010
1970
1964
1887
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Re: Storm2k 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll
cycloneye wrote:mixedDanilo.E wrote:i was forced by other people to make this: 36/17/9 - Preliminary
Dont have to be forced by anyone. Have your own mind to have the numbers.
i lock it in
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Re: Storm2k 2024 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Numbers Poll
cycloneye wrote:[/size][/b]
i said 36/17/9
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