Benchmark for Isabel

ChaserUK · #1 Postby **ChaserUK** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 5:03 pm

To all you experts out there what is the benchmark for Isabel to make a US landfall a possibility?

Anonymous · #2 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 5:16 pm

......but I believe one benchmark would be Izzy's forward progression west of 72.0 W Longitude, because once that occurs, the probability of the storm hitting the US EC greatly increases if the cyclone tries to turn north IMHO.

-Jeb

ChaserUK · #3 Postby **ChaserUK** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 5:22 pm

Thanks Jeb - what are the chances of this do you reckon? I guess all depends on this ridge building?

JetMaxx · #4 Postby **JetMaxx** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 5:34 pm

According to former NHC director Neil Frank, since 1900, major hurricanes passing near or just south of 20N/ 60 W on a W to WNW heading.....67% later struck the U.S. as major hurricanes (either Atlantic Coast, Florida, or Gulf Coast).

In 1995, hurricane Luis was one of the 33% that didn't (Luis recurved sharply out to sea after devastating Antigua, Barbuda, and St Marteen).

If Isabel follows the NHC forecast track and passes near 19.5 N and 60 W heading west -- there's historically a 2 in 3 chance it will later impact the U.S.

PW

Rainband · #5 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 5:40 pm

It's a wait and see scenario...I hate waiting :o

ChaserUK · #6 Postby **ChaserUK** » Mon Sep 08, 2003 5:44 pm

Blimey! Thanks for that - very much appreciated. It does look increasingly worrying then I have to say!!

Benchmark for Isabel

Benchmark for Isabel

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