Looking better for the northern islands

[cycloneye]

The northern leewards,the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico residents can breath more easy tonight as Isabel still hasn't made the west turn now at 18.5n almost clearing all the islands.Now I know that eventually a west track will happen but thankfully as long as the WNW motion continues more away she will pass to the north of them at a safe distance.Now the only way that the islands can be close from powerful Isabel is a WSW track that I dont forsee happening unless It is seen in reallity that it has done that motion.It is a very rare occurance that a hurricane tracks WSW in the atlantic close to the caribbean.

[MWatkins]

Sometimes the egos/personal thoughts kind of make their way into the TPC forecasts...if Stewart is back on duty tomorrow you can almost bet that the forecast track will come back to the left.

In addition...the latest available IR imagery suggests that the northward movement may have ended for now...and a more westward component has developed.

Wobble or not...until this thing is past your long and lat...I would keep a close eye on it.

And I know you will be.

MW

[cycloneye]

Yes definitly I will be watching all this time ahead.MW just after that 11 PM track came out and it was shown on TV here the local TV mets said that Puerto Rico has nothing to worrie about and those statements will certanly make the people not preocupied with Isabel and now tonight the complancency mode of the people is building.

[cycloneye]

Well as we wake up here in Puerto Rico and the northern islands we find that Isabel has continued to move more north in latitud and away from the 18.5n line which is the one of the most northern islands including ST Marteen.The expected turn to the west is going to happen eventually but more north than expected and more north to get the full force from that dangerous cat 4 system in the northern islands.Even if it takes a WSW motion the islands wont see the major effects from it but only the big swells that will increase and some rain in bands can arrive in the islands but as I see it today we can breath easy in the islands and I am very confident about our chances to avoid a major cane landfall.

[BitstormPR]

I agree with Watkins, We need to watch its not over yet.

[abajan]

A few years ago a hurricane named Iris by-passed Barbados and we thought we were in the clear. Well a couple days afterwards (when it was well northwest of us) we got winds in excess of 50mph out of the south-southwest accompanied by thunderstorms that we were later told were caused by a feeder band.

I also remember a feeder band from a hurricane called Gabrielle causing tornadoes in Trinidad even though it was obout 1000 miles to its north.

It ain't over till it's over!

[mf_dolphin]

It's still going to be close enough to be concerned. As long as that potential track envelope covers Puerto Rico eep an eye on it for sure.

[The_Cycloman_PR]

Well as I see it today we can breath easy in the islands

I would'nt be so sure yet my friend...

[The_Cycloman_PR]

Look to the last loop of the floater and you'll see the eye reforming to the west...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

[cycloneye]

Dont think that I wont watch it because until it passes our longitud I will do so definitly but what I was pointing out is the west track will start more north than it was yesterday in the forecast and that is good for the islands to not be hit by the full force of a cat 4 cane.

[deb_in_nc]

Very scary pic Cycloman. The fat lady hasn't sung yet.

Debbie

[The_Cycloman_PR]

The fat lady hasn't sung yet.

I was just looking for those words

[Dean4Storms]

I wouldn't be so sure. just about every model is reflecting this wsw movement with a few exceptions. I think it is a good possibility between the ridges expansion and the interaction with the ULL that it will occur.

[deb_in_nc]

Then too, our local wx was saying that it was looking a little less likely that it would make that WSW shift.

Debbie

[wrkh99]

WSW would be horrible news for the Islands

[jfaul]

Then too, our local wx was saying that it was looking a little less likely that it would make that WSW shift.

Debbie

thats funny since NHC has it tracking wsw in a couple of days. so was it jackie johnson, lonnie quinn, pam wright or the lady on abc? i assume you heard this info this morning because none of the 11 pm guys would go against nhc at this point. furthermore..how can they say the wsw shift isnt going to happen when it isnt predicted to shift for several days..i suggest you pay zero attention to anyone other than the cheif meteorologists on the 4 stations and i would discount don noe..so that leaves three to pick from.

[cycloneye]

The 11 AM forecast track indicates that the islands wont be affected by a landfalling cat 3-4 cane.The most close Isabel may pass the northern islands is between 100-150 miles north of ST Marteen and around 200 miles north of Puerto Rico good news indeed if that forecast pans out.Also that WSW jog that she may take will not be a drastic one that can be a problem to the islands because until she turns west more north she goes and even with that WSW jog already it will be north of 20n when the turn begins westward and will not be a threat to the islands.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

This says different.

http://www.weather.com/maps/news/atlsto ... large.html

[cycloneye]

Here is the NHC forecast track.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT ... 1453W5.gif

[msbee]

here in St. Maarten we are watching VERY carefully. I would feel better if Isabel reaches to 20 North.
she's still too close for comfort
do you think is she stays at 19.6 and proceeds west..with no southward dip hopefully..
that the norhern leeward islands and Puerto Rico could get tropical storm force winds and/or hurricane force winds from her southern edge?