Longevity question...

[Phoenix78]

While it is true that hurricanes can maintain intensity and grow over warm tropical water, is it really possible for a hurricane to maintain a category 4 or even 5 for a week, 10 days - or even longer?

Simply put, does a hurricane have a specific - and predictable - "lifespan"?

Anyone?

[slosh]

I have the same question Phoenix. My guess is as long conditions are favorable and it is moving over warm water, that it could sustain itself. Love to hear from the experts on that one though.

[weatherluvr]

Theoretically, a storm can maintain major hurricane status indefinitely, as long as it is over +28C water and minimal shear. The atmosphere dynamics are always changing, not to mention SST's, so this is why a major hurricane statistically doesn't maintain for more than 4-5 days on average. It has nothing to do with a hurricane "growing old".

[slosh]

If a system was stationary for a long period of time. would the water cool enough to degrade intensity?

[Phoenix78]

We have many examples throughout history of long-lived systems - but, they usually go through many changes in intensity in their lifetimes.

Put it this way - Living on Florida's Treasure Coast I'm hoping Isabel "runs out of gas" real soon!

[Phoenix78]

Slosh, The upwelling of cooler water would degrade a storm's intensity as you're depriving it of it's fuel - warm water.

[weatherluvr]

A ststionary storm will cause upwelling, cutting off the warm water supply. But if a storm is moving, and the surrounding environment is favorable, then it can go on and on. Sorry I didn't clarify that.

[wrkh99]

This segment brought to by the fine people at Viagra LOL

[Phoenix78]

Gosh - We've really gotta remember not to use the terms "upwelling". "intensity" and "sustain" in the same thread!! LOL!!!