Detailed Isabel Wind Field Analysis by HRD Here

[wxman57]

Here's a great site that I've used for post-storm studies. It's the Hurricane Research Division's site. What they do is gather all available information on each storm (recon an sfc obs) and construct detailed wind fields for each storm. There are 3 sets of graphics for each time period, a 2 deg map, 4 deg map, and 8 deg map. The 2 deg map is zoomed way in to show a 2 deg field, 8 deg map is zoomed out to show 8 deg latitude. The maps are not real time (unfortunately), but they do provide insight into what Isabel's surface wind field is really like.

Note the one pocket of higher winds (80 kts) east of the center (1930Z Sept 16) and maximum winds of about 65kts in the western half of the storm. Remember, that at THIS EXACT TIME, the NHC was carrying Isabel as a 90 kt storm. It just goes to show you that a 90 kt storm does not mean 90 kts all around the center, or even in a large area. In Isabel's case, 90 kts means MAYBE a peak wind of 90 kts in one small area east of the center. The vast majority of winds around Isabel are much lower than 90 kts.

Here's the link to Isabel analysis maps:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_page ... /wind.html

And here's a link where you can look at past storms;
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/data_sub/wind2003.html

[cycloneye]

Ed Rappaport the second in charge in the NHC said this morning that winds of cat 1 are the most that will be felt in the area as it makes landfall and cat 2 winds are in a very small pocket near the eye.

[wxman57]

That's probably right. What everyone here needs to understand is that the general public are given only a TINY BIT of information about the wind fields in hurricanes (i.e. recon reports / vortex messages). These graphics show you why when a recon plane reports 121 kts at 10,000 ft that it doesn't mean the storm is anywhere near that intensity at the surface. There are 2-3 recon planes in Isabel at the same time. They're all gathering data via radar and dropwindsondes. We see just the tip of the iceberg on their Internet web site.

So Isabel is mostly a weak Cat 1 storm with maybe a tiny pocket or two of Cat 2 winds. As such, hurricane-force winds (sustained) will almost certainly not carry inland more than 10 miles from the beaches (confined to coastal counties). Most inland areas (a county removed from the water) will more likely see 40-60 mph winds with gusts of 70-90 mph.

By later today, the HRD will have yeserday's images up. And in a few days, they'll have the final maps up for winds during landfall. It'll be really interesting to see what they find.

Oh, and I'd suggest going back to that link and looking up Floyd at landfall or Lili/Isidore at their peaks to see what a really strong hurricane wind field looks likel

[Derek Ortt]

There is a fairly large area of hurricane force winds, though the 85-90KT winds are confined to a very narrow band which likely will be moving onshore in Ocracoke later today

[wxman57]

Buoy reports off Hatteras suggest that there may be only a small area of hurricane-force winds east of the center now. Strongest winds are in the convection west of the center. Here, let me snap a picture....

http://home.houston.rr.com/wx/isabel57.gif

There may be a very TINY area of 80 kt winds southwest of the center, but mostly Isabel is a minimal Cat 1 storm.