UPDATE NWS MIAMI -- GALE FORCE WINDS & HIGH SURF.......

[dixiebreeze]

POSSIBLE IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AS INVEST/LOW MOVES IN ON WAY TO GOM.....

South Florida area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Miami Florida
1015 PM EST Sat Nov 1 2003


Update...updated zone forecast to increase pop (40 %) across the
eastern metropolitan areas as showers continue to develop over the Atlantic
waters due to enhanced low level convergence as the winds approach
land areas. Low level mean wind of 25 kts moving the showers rapidly
southwestward...so only light accumulations expected...but expect most
coastal sections to experience a shower overnight.


Separated northern Atlantic waters to indicate small NE swells arriving
at pbi tonight. Bouy 10 showing a NE swells of 5 feet 11 second since
early this afternoon. With this period these swells would take 9 to
10 hours to get to our northern Atlantic waters...so that will make it
tonight. Just last hour the bouy indicated almost a 7 foot swells
with up to 10 second. Swells should continue to increase form east-northeast and
seas will become very rough as gale center east of the Bahamas approaches
S. Florida. High surf advisory for Palm Beach County could be required
sometime Sunday. In addition...after coordination with
TAFB...decided to indicated wind gusts to gale force winds for
Sunday night for northern Atlantic waters. We do not believe we will
experience sustained gale force winds in our waters but gusts are a
possibility from Lake Worth northward. The winds over the southern Atlantic
waters will be slightly lighter as the gradient will not be as tight
and will be nearest to the low center.


Previous discussion...
surface low currently south of Bermuda continuing to track toward
South Florida. GFS seems to have a much better handle on the
situation as it initialized parameters more realistically. As this
low approaches showers will be on the increase over the Atlantic
with this trend already showing up on satellite imagery and local
radars. Will therefore up the probability of precipitation tonight along the east coast
although still keep them at isolated. This low is mainly a middle to
upper level feature so would not be surprised to see thunder also on
the increase as the associated airmass will become quite unstable as
it passes over the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream. The low will be
just about over mia by 12z Monday so will likely see a decrease in
activity from east to west during the day as it continues moving
westward. It will then move into the Gulf of Mexico by Monday night
along with drier air once again settling in across the region
through midweek. Easterly flow will continue through the extended
period so will keep mention of isolated east coast probability of precipitation.


Marine...
current winds northeast in the range of 20 to 25 knots and this
trend will continue through tonight. As low approaches winds will be
on the increase on Sunday. GFS does show 30 knot winds across the
northern portion of our county warning area so will keep the mention of 25 to 30
knots over the Atlantic waters and 20 to 25 knots for the Bay and
Gulf waters. Any gale force gusts should remain just north of the
region and will not mention at this time. One concern will be for
possible heavy surf advisory for Sunday particularly along the Palm
Beach coastline. Current surf cams show the roughest seas north of
Palm Beach but with winds increasing on Sunday may have issue heavy
surf advisory but that would not occur until Sunday so will let
tonight's shift handle this. As low moves into the Gulf winds will
become more southeasterly and decrease along with seas through
midweek.

[Anonymous]

No matter what... Strong gusts in Florida.