Tropical Update: 28 Feb

[senorpepr]

A) TC Ivy (13P): At 28/2325Z...
Position near 34.4S 176.9E (215nm NNE of Auckland, New Zealand)
Movement toward the SSE at 44 mph
Maximum sustained winds are 65 mph
Minimum central pressure is 984 mb
T# numbers: 2.5/3.5

Ivy continues at a fast pace towards the south-southeast. Ivy is weakening at a rapid pace as she becomes an extratropical cyclone.

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warni ... 304web.txt

B) TC Monty (14S): At 29/0030Z...
Position near 19.2S 116.3E (235nm NE of Learmonth, Australia)
Movement toward the W at 5 mph
Maximum sustained winds are 100 mph
Minimum central pressure is 958 mb
T# numbers: 4.0/4.0

Monty continues his strengthening trend. However, expect Monty to track in a southerly direction as a shortwave trough weakens the mid-level ridge. Expect further intensification for the next 24 hours. Thereafter land interaction will weaken Monty.

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warni ... 404web.txt

C) Invest (90S): At 29/0030Z...
Position near 9.4S 67.0E
Maximum sustained winds are 30 mph
Minimum central pressure is 1002 mb

90S just arrived on the NRL website today. We’ll monitor this system. At the present time, 09S is located between Diego Garcia and Seychelles.

D) Invest (91S): At 28/2325Z...
Position near 14.4S 139.3E
Maximum sustained winds are 30 mph
Minimum central pressure is 1002 mb

Also a newcomer to NRL’s website today, 91S is located in the Gulf of Carpentaria. We’ll monitor this system as well, but it should be noted that land will play a large factor with 91S’s future.

Please utilize the above link for the latest advisory. For latest forecast tracks and satellite imagery, go to the NRL Monterey's website at: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[senorpepr]

...and 90S has been dropped...

[F-Bo]

A few things:

First, I'm surprised that the fellas at the JTWC office are still warning on Ivy (or at least the 2100Z warning wasn't a final despite the latitude of 34S!)

Second..regarding the new invest area over the Gulf of C. It's rather tricky at the moment to pick out an established LLC. I'm not sure that I agree with the current fix. However once this system skirts the Top End and emerges in the baking hot waters in the Arafura or Timor Sea then things could get really cranking! Look for emergence off the coast for a Tues-Wed time frame. Once this invest is over the waters again it will have no troubles developing into a cyclone. Of course most of this depends on the parallel track it takes off to the west. Interesting to note that although it's ridiculously early in the forecast, long range models indicate a general westward movement (only steering current large high down in the Bight) and then a turn to the south once an approaching long wave picks it up. And at this time the point of impact would be near Onslow! Could you imagine taking a direct hit by two powerful cyclones less than 10 days apart? Amazing, a dangerous situation that needs close monitoring!! All that said, and this is still just a pitiful invest days and days away!

Gotta love the Southern Hemi tropical season...

[senorpepr]

Hello! I'd like to take this oppertunity and welcome you to Storm2K! The latest advisory on Ivy was her final. As for 91S, this should be an interesting storm to watch... that is if it holds together.

Anyway, thanks for your post and welcome to the Storm2K family!