Tropical Depression ONE-E
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000
WTPZ41 KNHC 220229
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI MAY 21 2004
THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS DEVELOPED SOME DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER THIS EVENING. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE
1.5/2.0/2.0 FROM TAFB/SAB/KGWC AND THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/09. THE TRACK MODELS SHOW THE
DEPRESSION TO BE EMBEDDED IN A WEAK STEERING CURRENT AND THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FOR A RATHER SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
FOR 5 DAYS.
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS NOT VERY AGGRESSIVE EVEN THOUGH THERE IS
LITTLE VERTICAL SHEAR AND WARM SSTS. THE SHIP MODEL BRINGS THE
WIND SPEED TO MAXIMUM VALUE OF 42 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE
THE GFDL SHOWS NO CHANGE FOR 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST IS
A MODEST INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/0300Z 14.7N 108.0W 25 KT
12HR VT 22/1200Z 15.4N 109.2W 30 KT
24HR VT 23/0000Z 16.0N 110.3W 35 KT
36HR VT 23/1200Z 16.6N 111.2W 35 KT
48HR VT 24/0000Z 17.1N 112.0W 35 KT
72HR VT 25/0000Z 18.0N 113.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 26/0000Z 18.0N 113.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 27/0000Z 18.0N 113.0W 25 KT
Sandy Delgado
Finally the NHC develops TD ONE-E
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Hurricanehink
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ColdFront77
Sure we're waiting and I guess those using the word are being sarcastic, but far from "finally."
It is only the sixth day of the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season. We know that it is not common to see development in the Atlantic Basin in June and even July.
We are 3% through the May 15th to November 30th is about time.
It is only the sixth day of the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season. We know that it is not common to see development in the Atlantic Basin in June and even July.
We are 3% through the May 15th to November 30th is about time.
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Wnghs2007
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ColdFront77 wrote:Sure we're waiting and I guess those using the word are being sarcastic, but far from "finally."
It is only the sixth day of the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season. We know that it is not common to see development in the Atlantic Basin in June and even July.
We are 3% through the May 15th to November 30th is about time.
What they are saying is FINALLY after all day of looking like a Tropical Depression and the NHC not intiating advisories. That they Finally did now. Not that we are late in the season. NOW do you understand.
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One minor thing. Often times...the NHC (now TPC) will go ahead and carry a system internally as a depression before upgrading publicly...just to be sure they don't create a upgrade...downgrade...upgrade type of scenario. This is especially true when there is no immediate threat to land.
On the other side of the coin...they will sometimes carry a system even though it's pretty apparent that a system has been decimated to the point of not being a closed low anymore.
If you need a specific example...try reading this forecast discussion from 1992:
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/storm_archiv ... al0492.014
Note that Bob Sheets later stated that they were ready to kill this system off...but they wanted to wait just ONE more advisory package...just in case. Can you imagine the outcry had they done that?
MW
On the other side of the coin...they will sometimes carry a system even though it's pretty apparent that a system has been decimated to the point of not being a closed low anymore.
If you need a specific example...try reading this forecast discussion from 1992:
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/storm_archiv ... al0492.014
Note that Bob Sheets later stated that they were ready to kill this system off...but they wanted to wait just ONE more advisory package...just in case. Can you imagine the outcry had they done that?
MW
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