Houston-Galveston AFD

[KatDaddy]

Still up in the AIr

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
232 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10 WHERE IT
APPEARS THAT THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE CAN BE FOUND. SOME CELL
TRAINING MAY LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED 2 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS AND
WE COULD GET SOME HAIL BEFORE ACTIVITY BEGINS TO WIND DOWN THIS
EVENING. ALL EYES THEN BEGIN TO TURN TO THE GULF WHERE IT APPEARS
THAT THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE IS BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED. AN AIRCRAFT IS INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE THEIR ADVERTISEMENT OF INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH MIDWEEK ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS MOISTURE FROM THE
DISTURBANCE BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST TOWARD THE GULF COAST
AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF OFF SOMEWHERE BETWEEN OUR AREA
AND THE CORPUS CHRISTI AREA. A DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH PRECIP
WATER VALUES ABOVE 2 INCHES WILL FLOW INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
GULF COAST STATES WHERE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM GENERALLY MOVES TO THE NORTH. EXACT LOCATION AND
STRENGTH OF THE TEXAS CLOSED LOW WILL BE OUR MAIN PLAYER IN
DETERMINING WHETHER OR NOT SOME OF OUR AREA GETS HEAVY RAINFALL.
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE CIRCULATION MIGHT END UP TO OUR WEST
WHICH WOULD BRING THE DEEPER MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA. WILL CALL FOR
40% POPS ON MONDAY AND RAISE THEM TO 60% ON TUESDAY DURING THE
SUGGESTED TIME OF BEST GULF INFLOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE MID/
UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERS AROUND THE AREA FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS AND
GIVES US SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK ALREADY TALKS ABOUT THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT. FOR NOW...WILL
NOT MENTION THIS IN THE ZONES. THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR
A GRADUAL DRYING OUT AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS RIDGING BEGINS TO REPLACE THIS WEEK'S MESS.
41/38
&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

[southerngale]

After reading this discussion, I read MWatkins post saying that the models were pointing it toward the New Orleans vicinity and Houston NWS says it may end up to our west.

I wonder where it'll go.