Wave in Atlantic regains strong Convection, Survives shear

[FWBHurricane]

This morning it literally blew up with convection, looking more healthier than ever. Some shear is still going at it from the north so some of the convection is being ripped to the NE. It looks like it might be heading into some more shear but the system looks persistant and might clear this pretty much unscathed. It still has a possible chance of developing but we still have to wait and see what happens when it reaches the shear in the Caribbean.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Anonymous]

It's already being affected by shear...and very much so. The shear is what's enhancing the convection...though of course at the same time keeping it from vertically stacking. NO chance of development at all in the next 48 hours as it moves through this shear zone. Afterwards, the potential is extremely minute at best as most of the models maintain strong shear for the remainder of the forecast period throughout the Caribbean Sea. If we see any surface reflection that moves north of the Western Indies as the tropical models show...it'll encounter a significant shearing/divergent environment by an upper level trough progged to develop over the Bahamas in the middle timeframe of the forecast period. Thus, don't see anything coming out of this, in the near OR longer term.