Tropical update: 3 PM EDT, 6-15-04

[WXBUFFJIM]

An update on the tropics this afternoon reveals a very strong typhoon in the western Pacific soon to become a supertyphoon and possibly the strongest super typhoon in many years. Meanwhile heavy rains and isolated tornadoes are a threat in the southeastern US as a weak tropical disturbance tracks over northeast Louisiana. At the same time, a very strong upper low, which is well defined is centered over the Galveston/Houston area, hence the showers and storms with isolated tornadoes southwest and northwest of Houston today. Destin, Florida has seen 4.25 inches of rain in the past 30 hours while Pensacola, Florida has seen up to 2.75 inches of rain in the past few hours. There has been flooding also reported recently in the College Station, TX area with numerous road closures reported. Finally there is moisture moving through Columbus, Georgia with heavy rains and that will reach Atlanta by evening rush hour with blinding rains and gusty winds.

Meanwhile further east, a strong tropical wave east of the Leeward Islands is being monitored. A weak trough to the west of it and ridging to the east of this wave will continue to track west with this wave. This will mean showers and squalls tonight into Wednesday for the Windward and Leeward Islands. Heavy rains and gusty winds are the main threats. Right now tropical development is not immient, but this will need to be monitored as we have had weak low pressure develop with this system over the past 24 hours or so.

The big story in the tropics is not in the Atlantic, but in the west Pacific with an explosive typhoon, soon to become a supertyphoon in the next few hours.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ ... _full.html shows the satellite of this storm.

Typhoon Dianmu is centered near 12.7 north, 136.9 east. Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected over the next 24 hours and Disnmu is expected to become a supertyphoon by tonight east coast time. Winds sustained at over 150 knots with gusts to 180 knots is expected over the next 36-48 hours with this system. The track will basically take this system towards the north northwest. That means Japan needs to watch this typhoon over the next 5-6 days or so. While this may weaken substantially before reaching Japan, this could still be a typhoon or a strong tropical storm over Japan or near Japan overtime. More updates will be given on this system as updates come in.



Jim