SSSSHHHH!!!!!!!!

#1 Postby **vbhoutex** » Wed Jun 30, 2004 9:17 am

Talk about quiet tropics!!!

It has been a long time since I have seen it this quiet!! I am enjoying it while I can since I know it will get frenzied before too long!

Rainband · #2 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Jun 30, 2004 9:22 am

The calm before the storm :eek:

Anonymous · #3 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Jun 30, 2004 3:18 pm

Yeah true quiet now... But I have a feeling people will be sayying "shhhhhh" asking for the tropics to quietten down in about a month or two :wink:

Lindaloo · #4 Postby **Lindaloo** » Wed Jun 30, 2004 3:26 pm

LOL Jekster. I believe you are right.

The Dark Knight · #5 Postby **The Dark Knight** » Wed Jun 30, 2004 3:32 pm

Rainband wrote:The calm before the storm

Steve H. · #6 Postby **Steve H.** » Wed Jun 30, 2004 3:46 pm

Actually, there is a circulation developing at 10N/50W, barrelling westward, but shear is still present. Check out the vis loops. It will help you cope with the quiet times! :wink:

Guest · #7 Postby **Guest** » Thu Jul 01, 2004 9:10 am

Jacksonville rain fall the second wettest on record 17.01 inches. I wonder how that correlates with the record june, and so on and so forth. I will see and post it on a new link.

The Dark Knight · #8 Postby **The Dark Knight** » Thu Jul 01, 2004 9:12 am

Steve H. wrote: It will help you cope with the quiet times!

I like it!!!!

Steve H. · #9 Postby **Steve H.** » Thu Jul 01, 2004 10:59 am

The area of convection east of the Windwards is looking interesting again today. This MAY be an area to watch. Things are gonna perk up soon :wink:

jinftl · #10 Postby **jinftl** » Sun Jul 08, 2007 7:58 pm

Thought this might be an interesting trip down memory lame...early July 2004 and folks were commenting how amazingly quiet the season was...nuff said!

#11 Postby **skysummit** » Sun Jul 08, 2007 8:01 pm

Shear looks like it's decreasing a bit in the Caribbean. I haven't looked at anything except for WV animations, so if I'm wrong, please correct me.

Also...looking WV, I can almost see that wet MJO on its way. I think my monitor began sweating a little.

Ptarmigan · #12 Postby **Ptarmigan** » Sun Jul 08, 2007 8:42 pm

jinftl wrote:Thought this might be an interesting trip down memory lame...early July 2004 and folks were commenting how amazingly quiet the season was...nuff said!

And guess what, 2004 turned out to be one of the most active on record. :eek:

#13 Postby **Aslkahuna** » Sun Jul 08, 2007 8:50 pm

Depends upon where you are looking

Steve

#14 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Jul 09, 2007 8:27 am

It's looking a lot like 2006 folks.
I'm sure we will see some activity develop
later this month and of course in
Aug. & Sept. but I just don't see a season anything
like 2005 & 2004.

Frank2 · #15 Postby **Frank2** » Mon Jul 09, 2007 8:41 am

Early July is statistically the slowest portion of the season (aside from November), so...

But, to me, it is a slow season (so far) - if the A storm is discounted (since that type of system would not have been named prior to 2002 - to me, that system should not have been named, since it was primarily a gale center, more than anything), we would only have one very ill-defined tropical storm to show for the entire 2007 hurricane season so far, so, it just depends on how this season is considered...

#16 Postby **jasons2k** » Mon Jul 09, 2007 8:48 am

I don't think this season will look anything like 2006.

#17 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Jul 09, 2007 9:23 am

jschlitz wrote:I don't think this season will look anything like 2006.

Do you think it will be slower? If you mean busier, well yes that is very possible
but not to the extent of what 2004 & 2005 were in my opinion. But just (again)
remember it only takes "one" Katrina or Rita type storm to make it an active
season for any one location. I'm keeping my fingers cross the "ssshhhhhhhhhh"
season continues.

#18 Postby **jasons2k** » Mon Jul 09, 2007 9:47 am

I do not think slower than 2006, not at all.

I detailed my seasonal forecast back in May and I'm sticking to it. It may not be *quite* as busy as I forecasted due to La Nina not taking hold as forecasted, but I still think the major players are in place for an above-average season.

ronjon · #19 Postby **ronjon** » Mon Jul 09, 2007 10:18 am

Let's all enjoy the quiet now before the uptick in about 3 weeks. In 2004, our first storm, Alex, didn't form until July 31st. The C-storm, and we all know that name, didn't form until August 9th of 2004. That season we ended up with 16 named storms - probably very close to what we'll see this year. Folks, we are in a long-term active pattern that except for the El Nino years of 1997, 2002, and last year, have been much above average since 1995. There is every reason to believe this one will be above average too. Now, the big worry is where will the Bermuda High set up in about a month?

#20 Postby **Vortex** » Mon Jul 09, 2007 10:30 am

If the East coast trough remains fairly constant this would provide the defecting mechanism to keep the EC threat low...GFS continues to depict troughniess along the east coast and a displaced Bermuda High in the long range...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_384l.gif

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