11am Frances-90 mph winds, HURRICANE WARNING FOR GULF COAST

[Brent]

Hurricane Frances Forecast/Advisory Number 47

Statement as of 15:00Z on September 05, 2004

at 11 am EDT...1500z...a Hurricane Warning has been issued for the
Gulf Coast of Florida from the mouth of the Suwannee River to
Destin.

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the East Coast of Florida
from north of Deerfield Beach northward to Flagler Beach...including
Lake Okeechobee.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Florida
Peninsula...on the West Coast...from the Suwannee River southward
around the peninsula to Deerfield Beach...and for all of the Florida
Keys...including Florida Bay and the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm
Warning also remains in effect from north of Flagler Beach to
Altamaha Sound.

At 11 am EDT...1500z...all warnings for the Bahamas have been
discontinued.

At 11 am EDT...1500z...the Hurricane Watch from north of Flagler
Beach to Fernandina Beach has been discontinued.


Hurricane center located near 27.7n 81.2w at 05/1500z
position accurate within 20 nm

present movement toward the west-northwest or 300 degrees at 8 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 975 mb
eye diameter 30 nm
Max sustained winds 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt.
64 kt....... 60ne 30se 30sw 30nw.
50 kt....... 80ne 80se 40sw 40nw.
34 kt.......175ne 150se 100sw 120nw.
12 ft seas..350ne 350se 200sw 300nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 27.7n 81.2w at 05/1500z
at 05/1200z center was located near 27.5n 80.8w

forecast valid 06/0000z 28.2n 82.3w...inland
Max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.
50 kt... 50ne 50se 50sw 50nw.
34 kt...125ne 125se 125sw 125nw.

Forecast valid 06/1200z 29.0n 83.9w...over water
Max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.
64 kt... 25ne 25se 25sw 25nw.
50 kt... 50ne 50se 50sw 50nw.
34 kt...125ne 125se 125sw 125nw.

Forecast valid 07/0000z 30.3n 85.2w...moving inland
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
34 kt... 50ne 125se 125sw 50nw.

Forecast valid 07/1200z 32.0n 86.0w...inland
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.

Forecast valid 08/1200z 35.0n 85.5w...inland
Max wind 25 kt...gusts 35 kt.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 09/1200z 38.5n 82.5w...inland
Max wind 20 kt...gusts 25 kt.

Outlook valid 10/1200z 42.0n 79.0w...inland
Max wind 20 kt...gusts 25 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 27.7n 81.2w

next advisory at 05/2100z

forecaster Avila

[Brent]

Hurricane Frances Discussion Number 47

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 05, 2004

radar data and surface observations indicate that the large center
of circulation of Frances continues to move slowly across the
central Florida Peninsula. The tropical storm force winds extend
far away from the center in practically all quadrants. In fact...
Grand Bahama is still reporting sustained winds of tropical storm
force...and winds have reached 40 to 45 knots in feeder bands over
the Florida Keys.

The center of Frances is expected to continue to move between the
west and west-northwest across the peninsula and then emerge over
the Gulf of Mexico in about 12 to 18 hours. Initial intensity
remains at 80 knots. The hurricane is expected to weaken to
tropical storm intensity as it moves over land...but it could then
regain hurricane status once over the warm waters of the Gulf of
Mexico. Because Frances has a large wind field and is expected to
be very near the Florida Panhandle in about 24 to 36 hours...a
Hurricane Warning has been issued for a portion of the Florida Gulf
of Mexico coast.

Forecaster Avila

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 05/1500z 27.7n 81.2w 80 kt inland
12hr VT 06/0000z 28.2n 82.3w 50 kt...inland
24hr VT 06/1200z 29.0n 83.9w 65 kt...over water
36hr VT 07/0000z 30.3n 85.2w 35 kt...inland
48hr VT 07/1200z 32.0n 86.0w 30 kt...inland
72hr VT 08/1200z 35.0n 85.5w 25 kt...inland
96hr VT 09/1200z 38.5n 82.5w 20 kt...inland
120hr VT 10/1200z 42.0n 79.0w 20 kt...inland

[jes]

I must really get things wrong. I thought they said it probably wouldn't have time to reintensify over the gulf to hurricane status. I've been planning on a tropical storm, but that I guess that has changed.

[Brent]

They bring it up to 75 mph now before landfall. Not going to make much difference.

Hurricane Frances Advisory Number 47

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 05, 2004

...Frances hitting Florida hard...

at 11 am EDT...1500z...a Hurricane Warning has been issued for the
Gulf Coast of Florida from the mouth of the Suwannee River to
Destin.

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the East Coast of Florida
from north of Deerfield Beach northward to Flagler Beach...including
Lake Okeechobee.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Florida
Peninsula...on the West Coast...from the Suwannee River southward
around the peninsula to Deerfield Beach...and for all of the Florida
Keys...including Florida Bay and the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm
Warning also remains in effect from north of Flagler Beach to
Altamaha Sound.

At 11 am EDT...1500z...all warnings for the Bahamas have been
discontinued.

At 11 am EDT...1500z...the Hurricane Watch from north of Flagler
Beach to Fernandina Beach has been discontinued.

At 11 am EDT...1500z...the center of Hurricane Frances was located
by radar near latitude 27.7 north...longitude 81.2 west...about 25
miles northeast of Sebring and 80 miles east-southeast of Tampa
Florida.

The large circulation of Frances is moving toward the west-northwest
near 9 mph. A continued west to west-northwestward track across
the peninsula is expected today and Frances should move over the
Gulf of Mexico late tonight or Monday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph...150 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some additional weakening is expected as the core of Frances
moves over land.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 200 miles...325 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb...28.79 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 4 to 6 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...is
still possible near and to the north of where the center made
landfall on the Florida East Coast but should gradually subside.

Storm surge flooding of 5 feet above normal levels is
expected in Lake Okeechobee. Along the southwest Florida
coast...storm surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide
levels is expected south of the path of Frances. Storm surge
flooding of up to 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels is
expected along the northeast Gulf Coast of Florida.

Rainfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches...with locally higher amounts...
to near 20 inches...are expected over the Florida Peninsula in
association with Frances.

Isolated tornadoes are possible over portions of central and North
Florida today.

Repeating the 11 am EDT position...27.7 N... 81.2 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 90
mph. Minimum central pressure... 975 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 2 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 PM
EDT.

[tallywx]

Oh boy, here we go. Latest track puts Tallahassee in the NE quadrant.

[Opal storm]

I must really get things wrong. I thought they said it probably wouldn't have time to reintensify over the gulf to hurricane status. I've been planning on a tropical storm, but that I guess that has changed.

I don't know about a hurricane,they are forecasting this to hit the Big Bend area.In that case,it will only be over the Gulf for a very brief time,not enough time to become a hurricane.If it takes more of a southern path,making landfall further west down the coast,it will be over water longer and have a better chance at becoming a hurricane again.

[tallywx]

I must really get things wrong. I thought they said it probably wouldn't have time to reintensify over the gulf to hurricane status. I've been planning on a tropical storm, but that I guess that has changed.

I don't know about a hurricane,they are forecasting this to hit the Big Bend area.In that case,it will only be over the Gulf for a very brief time,not enough time to become a hurricane.If it takes more of a southern path,making landfall further west down the coast,it will be over water longer and have a better chance at becoming a hurricane again.

Just remember Hurricane Danny of 1997, which was over land for three days. It nearly regained hurricane status off Virginia after being over water for one hour.

[Anonymous]

This thing is weakening rather slowly. Its been over land for 9 hours and lost 15 mph, while Charley went over land for about the same time and lost 50+ mph. Ugh.

[Nimbus]

Looks like she is starting to move a little faster to the WWNW. Could be moving back out over the water near Tampa for the 5PM update.

[TheGlaweman]

To me, completely novice and untrained, it looks to me that the center of circulation is jogging a bit more to the N in the past few frames....

http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS. ... ktbw.shtml

[Brent]

Looks like she is starting to move a little faster to the WWNW. Could be moving back out over the water near Tampa for the 5PM update.

I noticed that. Moving faster than forecast.

[baygirl_1]

Okay... getting a little concerned over here in Mobile.
I was checking out the forecast track. She seems to be tenaciously staying south of where NHC has forecasted. What are the conditions that should make her take such a sharp NW turn to head up through Appalachicola? I mean, she's currently east-southeast of Tampa. If she emerges into the Gulf near Tampa, that just seems like a pretty hard right turn. Anybody have any thoughts about this???

[Brent]

Okay... getting a little concerned over here in Mobile.
I was checking out the forecast track. She seems to be tenaciously staying south of where NHC has forecasted. What are the conditions that should make her take such a sharp NW turn to head up through Appalachicola? I mean, she's currently east-southeast of Tampa. If she emerges into the Gulf near Tampa, that just seems like a pretty hard right turn. Anybody have any thoughts about this???

Trough will pick her up. Most of the models are now RIGHT of the NHC track and some just barely move her over the Gulf. I don't see her going west of Destin(and I think that is too far west).

Only one is west of the NHC...

[baygirl_1]

Thanks, Brent. Guess the trough is coming through for us. Sure hope so! I will keep all you folks in her path in my thoughts and prayers, though!