New Ivan forecast... over Jamaica and toward GOM

Derek Ortt · #1 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 9:18 am

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl092004forecast.html

graphics in about 3 minutes

canegrl04 · #2 Postby **canegrl04** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 9:20 am

Not good for US :eek:

Derek Ortt · #3 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 9:23 am

graphics at http://www.nwhhc.com/atl092004graphics.html

#4 Postby **Dave C** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 9:24 am

Derek, could you provide a link that discusses "SAL"
if you get a chance. I know you've probably described it before but was interested on reading-up on ot. Thanks!

Aquawind · #5 Postby **Aquawind** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 9:24 am

Ugh...another shift to the left..

#6 Postby **Lowpressure** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 9:24 am

Southern track seems more reasonable all things considered. Does appear to be reorganizing. This will be an interesting storm to follow.

huricanwatcher · #7 Postby **huricanwatcher** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 9:25 am

Derek Ortt wrote:graphics at http://www.nwhhc.com/atl092004graphics.html

Why does you model look so much further south than most of the others out there

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/image ... _model.gif

#8 Postby **wjs3** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 9:27 am

Derek:

Thanks again--like the poster above, I'd like to know what SAL is too.

Derek Ortt · #9 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 9:27 am

This is <b>NOT</b> a model forecast. This, instead, is based upon my work experience as well as what I have learned in college about meteorology. The northward solution is complete and utter dung if you ask me

Derek Ortt · #10 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 9:28 am

The March (or April, one of those two) issue of BAMS had a nice article by Jason Dunion of HRD discussing the SAL in depth

Tip · #11 Postby **Tip** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 9:35 am

One thing going against intensification in the Carribean are the SST's.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/d ... 9casst.png

OtherHD · #12 Postby **OtherHD** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 9:37 am

Wow, look at all that upwelling left in Frances' wake...interesing map Tip. Thanks!

frankthetank · #13 Postby **frankthetank** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 9:38 am

SAL=Saharan Air Layer??? it entrained some sand???

Derek Ortt · #14 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 9:39 am

SAL is not just sand and dust, but dry air

FungusMoldlyColdcuts · #15 Postby **FungusMoldlyColdcuts** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 9:42 am

dur, since when are SSTs between 27 and 29C (80-84) unfavorable for tropical system sustainment/development? better luck next time

and another thing Mr. Ortt, I do agree that the models don't quite have a handle on initializations of this system. that is a given

On the other hand, If this storm does creep up to 20N 75W, and likely loses its forward steam, I do not see nearly the ridge of the past weeks pattern over the subtropics and central atlantic. infact more of a +NAO -PNA looks good to me, which would favor more troughing along the east coast and a recurve at some point. Now, seeing it's all speculation this is just opinion based. I do believe it's either a decent recurve N or NE from Cuba/Haiti, or a jamaica-yucatan threat, possibly bay of campeche or S. GOM.

just my take

FungusMoldlyColdcuts · #16 Postby **FungusMoldlyColdcuts** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 9:44 am

I do agree with it's southern latitude already and lack of data, that historical and climotology would favor more westward movement than the DIRECT florida approach. speculation.

#17 Postby **Lowpressure** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 9:46 am

The Carib is not too cool, even if it is the Gulf is a hot tub. If this gets to the gulf-look out.

x-y-no · #18 Postby **x-y-no** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 10:08 am

Looking at WV images, I'm just not seeing that dry air intrusion. There's that odd dividing line between the two main areas of convection, but I don't see dry air in the vicinity being pulled in. (caveat, I'm very much an amateur, and maybe I'm misinterpreting what I'm looking at)

I think maybe the issue is that discrete blob of convection to the SW disrupting his inflow. In the last few frames, that blob has grown more north-south in front of the circulation center, and is starting to look like it's wrapping around on the NW side. Looks to me like he may succeed in pulling that separate blob in, in which case his inflow should improve.

bigmike · #19 Postby **bigmike** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 10:12 am

Derek Ortt wrote:This is <b>NOT</b> a model forecast. This, instead, is based upon my work experience as well as what I have learned in college about meteorology. The northward solution is complete and utter dung if you ask me

You have a nice write up on your forecast but we'll see if its verified. Will be interesting to see what the models do with the recon data tonight.

PTPatrick · #20 Postby **PTPatrick** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 10:17 am

It doesnt look like it will go in Frances path...so upwelling will not be an issue. The only thing good I can say for Jamaica is that the area between DR and SA is a bad area for development. It may weaken so here, but often storms hold thier own(and we saw Charley form there).

New Ivan forecast... over Jamaica and toward GOM

New Ivan forecast... over Jamaica and toward GOM

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