Upper low in atlantic moving WSW will be key

[cycloneye]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

If you look at the WV loop you can see clearly a big upper low in the central atlantic Moving WSW to SW that may hold the key in terms of the track of Ivan after 3 days.If that low turns more stronger the ridge will weaken and Ivan may move more northwest to north more quicker and not go further than 82w.So let's watch that big low out there and see if it plays a roll in the long range track of Ivan.

[CaptinCrunch]

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

[CourierPR]

That low sure appears to be diving southwest.

[marc21688]

What about in 3 days?

[chris_fit]

i agree

[BReb]

Could someone please explain why some lows weaken ridges and others strengthen them? For example, it's been said that when there's a strong trough in the western US, a correspondingly strong ridge will form in the eastern US. Implying proximity between troughs/lows and ridges strengthen the ridges. But other times, there's talk about troughs weakening ridges- what's the deal?

[x-y-no]

That's what I've been saying about what the GFS and ECMWF are apparently thinking with their more easterly tracks.

[tideline]

air is just like water. it flows from a high to a low place. has the air flows from the high it reduces the height of its pressure.once they get equal. no flow. in a storm or hurricane its the air flowing to the low that makes all the wind.

[quickychick]

dhweather was in my office pointing out that odd concave hump just left of the point of the ridge and said he thought that's what the models were picking up to sling Ivan back NW or N...but neither of us saw the ULL coming down from the northeast (or if he did point it out I was in la-la land, not uncommon). Is that causing that odd little concave "hump" just about due north (25n, 72w) of Ivan, or is Ivan causing the hump?

[x-y-no]

dhweather was in my office pointing out that odd concave hump just left of the point of the ridge and said he thought that's what the models were picking up to sling Ivan back NW or N...but neither of us saw the ULL coming down from the northeast (or if he did point it out I was in la-la land, not uncommon). Is that causing that odd little concave "hump" just about due north (25n, 72w) of Ivan, or is Ivan causing the hump?

Yes, the low appears to be causing that.

[rainstorm]

i see it just the opposite. there was a huge ull to the east of frances, and in my opinion it helped keep frances on a more westerly path. i see the surface ridge growing over the mid atlantic next week

[quickychick]

Is that causing that odd little concave "hump" just about due north (25n, 72w) of Ivan, or is Ivan causing the hump?

Yes, the low appears to be causing that.

Ok, stupid question number 2: how is it doing that? And thanks, btw. :)

[WeatherEmperor]

Is that causing that odd little concave "hump" just about due north (25n, 72w) of Ivan, or is Ivan causing the hump?

Yes, the low appears to be causing that.

Ok, stupid question number 2: how is it doing that? And thanks, btw.

Maybe I can answer that for you quickychick. I saw my local met mention that ULL and he said that if it is strong enough and fast enough it could turn Ivan more poleward quicker then forecast. This is because it could erode the western end of the ridge somewhat.

<RICKY>

[quickychick]

Maybe I can answer that for you quickychick. I saw my local met mention that ULL and he said that if it is strong enough and fast enough it could turn Ivan more poleward quicker then forecast. This is because it could erode the western end of the ridge somewhat.

<RICKY>

Thanks Ricky. I should think more in 3D than in 2D when it comes to these things.

[jimbo]

my 2 un-educated cents...the ULL is too far east to ause the turh but it is enhancing the outflow helping with the strengthening. just a thought....