NHC Offical Track shifts west AGAIN

logybogy · #1 Postby **logybogy** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 3:49 am

Of note: New Orleans is well within the current cone of error.

NorthGaWeather · #2 Postby **NorthGaWeather** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 3:51 am

Now into Pensacola barely missing Mobile Bay.

southerngale · #3 Postby **southerngale** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:17 am

Wow! Important note in the discussion:
The official forecast track is shifted about 60 N mi left of the
previous advisory at 72 hours and is still to the right of all
guidance except for the GFS. If I did not have a previous forecast
to maintain some continuity with...I would have shifted the track
even further to the left.
Forecaster Lawrence

Jems · #4 Postby **Jems** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:26 am

In the discussion it is suppose to hit at 30.0n / 87.5 w at 105 kt. What would this do to NOLA? Also what if it hits 30.0n 90.0w at 105 kt (I think this is around 120 mph)? Would you still evacuate ?

southerngale · #5 Postby **southerngale** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:30 am

I can't really answer your first question but to your second question...yes. First of all, there's no way to know what strength it will be at landfall. Intensity is hard to predict. Also, 120mph is a cat. 3 major hurricane and most definitely New Orleans should evacuate. Starting today would be a good idea as well. By the time we know if it's going to hit New Orleans or not, it will be too late for everyone to evacuate.

cape_escape · #6 Postby **cape_escape** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 6:52 am

As much as I'm glad that I'm out of the cone here in SWFL, I sure don't want ot see anyone get hit by Ivan! Plesae stay safe everyone!!

Aquawind · #7 Postby **Aquawind** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 6:54 am

cape_escape wrote:As much as I'm glad that I'm out of the cone here in SWFL, I sure don't want ot see anyone get hit by Ivan! Plesae stay safe everyone!!

Ditto

Sean in New Orleans · #8 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 6:56 am

Jems wrote:In the discussion it is suppose to hit at 30.0n / 87.5 w at 105 kt. What would this do to NOLA? Also what if it hits 30.0n 90.0w at 105 kt (I think this is around 120 mph)? Would you still evacuate ?

This is too close...Greater New Orleans officials will evacuate the metropolitan area with this forecast..

#9 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 7:15 am

The 06z GFS is also further west than the 00z. Now it's pointing at Mobile. Was Pensacola last night.

TyphoonTim · #10 Postby **TyphoonTim** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 7:17 am

The UKMET must have something against Georgia. It does a complete u-turn at the border and heads back to Alabama? Must not be a dawgs fan!

#11 Postby **feederband** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 7:25 am

The important thing to remember that all season long the storms end up some where else. I'll start believing the tracks when it is 24 hrs from landfall...

#12 Postby **HurricaneQueen** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 8:31 am

My heart goes out to all of you who are in the potential path of Ivan. We, in SW FL, know the anxiety and work you are enduring. All we can hope for now is a left into an unpopulated area of Mexico or a serious degradation of the storm. I can't imagine living in NO and knowing that Ivan could be headed that way.

As we know from experience, much can happen over then next few days. Who would have gueesed on Friday that we would be in the office this morning up and running except for the bank vault which is locked for another two days!!! No cash but the Trust side is functional and people are actually calling more this morning than normal! Go figure.

Best wishes to all of you. I, for one will continue to monitor, albeit not as often and will keep all my friend and acquaintances in the north and central Gulf in my thoughts and prayers.

Lynn

Website · #13 Postby **Brent** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 8:45 am

My poor coastline. :cry:

#14 Postby **HurricaneQueen** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 8:57 am

My heart goes out to all of you who are in the potential path of Ivan. We, in SW FL, know the anxiety and work you are enduring. All we can hope for now is a left into an unpopulated area of Mexico or a serious degradation of the storm. I can't imagine living in NO and knowing that Ivan could be headed that way.

As we know from experience, much can happen over then next few days. Who would have gueesed on Friday that we would be in the office this morning up and running except for the bank vault which is locked for another two days!!! No cash but the Trust side is functional and people are actually calling more this morning than normal! Go figure.

Best wishes to all of you. I, for one will continue to monitor, albeit not as often and will keep all my friend and acquaintances in the north and central Gulf in my thoughts and prayers.

Lynn

lildixie · #15 Postby **lildixie** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 9:17 am

My heart goes out not only to all the citizens this will affect but to the emergency services crews (fire, police, EMS, power, etc.) who will work around the clock to reduce chaos, help others in need and clean up after the storm. I am a Paramedic in East Central Alabama (about 120 miles from the coast) and remember when Opal came through. We had some firefighters who were up for three days straight working. That was nothing like what FL has experienced but with a hurricane like this even folks further inland will get a jolt from the furry.

I wonder.....if this storm does hit the MS, AL, FL panhandle area, (or anywhere for that matter) what will the winds be like 120 miles inland?? Will they still be hurricane force or much less?

Website · #16 Postby **Brent** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 9:20 am

lildixie wrote:I wonder.....if this storm does hit the MS, AL, FL panhandle area, (or anywhere for that matter) what will the winds be like 120 miles inland?? Will they still be hurricane force or much less?

Yes. The NHC has this 50 miles north of here still with 50 mph winds Friday Morning at 2am, 24 hours after landfall. I expect on the current track hurricane force gusts into Central Alabama(of course, farther west into Mississippi as well).

NHC Offical Track shifts west AGAIN

NHC Offical Track shifts west AGAIN

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