Kujira restrengthens
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Anonymous
Kujira restrengthens
It's back to a category 4 typhoon again as it moves closer to the Phillipines. Seems to be weakening again, hopefully for good. Talk about a rare storm...
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Anonymous
Track forecast image....still expected to drift just north of the Philippines. Keep in mind, however, the JTWC has had a slight northerly bias in forecast track for this storm. So while it does look like the center will not make a direct hit, it will be a very close call. The good news is that Kujira will be minimal typhoon by the time it passes by.
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Anonymous
JTWC's reasoning behind their forecast...
UNCLAS//N03144//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (KUJIRA) WARNING NR 39//
RMKS/
WDPN31 PGTW 181500
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 181200Z2 TO 211200Z6 APR 2003.
A. TYPHOON 02W (KUJIRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 505 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 181130Z4
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 AND 127 KNOTS. A
180929Z9 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO GO THROUGH A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE.
B. TY 02W IS NOW TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS A WEAKNESS
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER TAIWAN. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THIS WEAKNESS AND INHIBIT
BUILDING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA ALLOWING
TY 02W TO CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK UNTIL LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AT THIS TIME, A RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA
CAUSING TY 02W TO RESUME A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, COAMPS, THE JAPANESE
GLOBAL (JGSM) AND TYPHOON (JTYM) MODELS, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AFWA
MM5, AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE ALL IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. GFDN REMAINS THE OUTLIER IN THE MODEL SUITE WITH A
SIGNIFICANT POLEWARD BIAS. THE FORECAST REMAINS BASED ON PERSISTENCE
AND A BLEND OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON GFDN.
C. TY 02W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS
AND THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR ON ITS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. TY 02W WILL WEAKEN AT A
GREATER RATE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WHEN IT ENCOUNTERS HIGHER
VERTICAL SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
D. CURRENT WIND RADII IS BASED ON AN ANALYSIS OF A 180858Z0
QUICKSCAT AND A 180929Z9 SSM/I PASS. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED
ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM.
3. RELEASED BY CAPT LEEJOICE, USAF.
FORECAST TEAM: LEEJOICE/GRUBER/HEATH/EDBERG//
UNCLAS//N03144//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (KUJIRA) WARNING NR 39//
RMKS/
WDPN31 PGTW 181500
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 181200Z2 TO 211200Z6 APR 2003.
A. TYPHOON 02W (KUJIRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 505 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 181130Z4
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 AND 127 KNOTS. A
180929Z9 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO GO THROUGH A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE.
B. TY 02W IS NOW TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS A WEAKNESS
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER TAIWAN. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THIS WEAKNESS AND INHIBIT
BUILDING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA ALLOWING
TY 02W TO CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK UNTIL LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AT THIS TIME, A RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA
CAUSING TY 02W TO RESUME A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, COAMPS, THE JAPANESE
GLOBAL (JGSM) AND TYPHOON (JTYM) MODELS, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AFWA
MM5, AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE ALL IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. GFDN REMAINS THE OUTLIER IN THE MODEL SUITE WITH A
SIGNIFICANT POLEWARD BIAS. THE FORECAST REMAINS BASED ON PERSISTENCE
AND A BLEND OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON GFDN.
C. TY 02W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS
AND THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR ON ITS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. TY 02W WILL WEAKEN AT A
GREATER RATE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WHEN IT ENCOUNTERS HIGHER
VERTICAL SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
D. CURRENT WIND RADII IS BASED ON AN ANALYSIS OF A 180858Z0
QUICKSCAT AND A 180929Z9 SSM/I PASS. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED
ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM.
3. RELEASED BY CAPT LEEJOICE, USAF.
FORECAST TEAM: LEEJOICE/GRUBER/HEATH/EDBERG//
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