If this were July..........

[Steve H.]

There would be some definite concern. Trough setlling over the Florida peninsula with waves moving along and near it. One disturbance is shown in the GOM at day 5 and yet another in the Bahamas shows a surface low at day 8 on the GFS. Also high pressure shown to be near the mid Atlantic coast. If this were July it would be an interesting setup. Its intriguing now. Although not thought to be a sign of things to come, it may be showing a pattern setting up. These patterns often cycle throughout the summer, with bursts of, or potential of tropical activity. This may indeed be a sign of a pattern change and a harbenger of things to come in the next pulse (June ) I was thinking it was just an oddball event. But looking at the long range models, perhaps its a pattern 8) Cheers!!

[cycloneye]

Meteorology is not a perfect science as weather changes when you dont expect to do so.That goes to the models at the long range phase because many things can happen that may make a model go bad in it's forecast.

Let's wait for a definite trend of a pattern and then we can say what may happen in the near future.

[Steve H.]

Agreed, meteorology is far from an exact science. There's very little data to show any correlation between Ana being a sign of things to come or an oddball. Conversely, there's little data to show that she isn't, and the pattern may be showing that. I guess all I'm saying here Luis is that Ana may not be just a Fluke as many are stating. No wise cracks from the peanut gallery, I know she's not a flounder :o , but she may flounder around for a bit

[ColdFront77]

This is the first part of a possible pattern setting up. Another "setup" wouldn't be as intriguing as the one you mention above (Steve). We sure will be watching the situaton with the short term to long term weather patterns in the upcoming days, weeks and six to seven months.

[Steve H.]

GFS still show low pressure forming in the GOM at day 6, over south Florida day 7, and just off the coast of West Palm moving to the Bahamas. Has been on the past 3 runs. Hey, just wanna keep the interest going til June

[cycloneye]

Steve I may wait for the low to form first and then comment about it but I wont be surprised if another storm forms in may(Bill) although chances are slim but never say never.

[chadtm80]

boy that would be neat if it verifies

[Rainband]

[Rainband]

[cycloneye]

Looks like the GFS has something near Bermuda by early next week on the same place ana formed but we have to wait for the reallity to see if a low forms and if other models follow the gfs.

[Rainband]

Now NOGAPS is picking this up too!!! :o

[cycloneye]

Yep now are 2 models so let's keep watch this to see if in reallity some kind of low pressure forms northeast of the Bahamas.

[Rainband]

GFS and NOGAPS never even come close to being in sync!!!! :o

[Anonymous]

It doesn't appear this low (if it forms) will be in as favorable of an environment as Ana was. Nonetheless, the trends with the models is rather suspicious, and after Ana's grand opening performance I wouldn't rule out anything at this point.

[ColdFront77]

Nicely put, Rob. I agree with you.