Models hint of something in atlantic

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Apr 24, 2003 8:00 pm

http://152.80.49.210/CGI/PUBLIC/wxmap_l ... 2003042412

Well ANA is gone but the atlantic may and that is a key word may have somekind of low pressure near the Bahamas by early next week as some models suggest at this time.

This is the NOGAPS model that shows that system but we have to wait for more runs of it and also what other models say to see if there is consensus on them so let's keep a watch to the atlantic in the comming days.

Anonymous · #2 Postby **Anonymous** » Thu Apr 24, 2003 8:25 pm

The 2003 season would automatically go down in history if we see Bill before June 1. To my understanding I don't recall a season ever having 2 pre-season named storms. As for this low, the trends with the models is catching my attention but for the time being development seems very unlikely. Should this change over the next several days (hey, Ana taught us anything is possible), TWW, Kevin and I will issue a special update on it.

Kevin_Wx · #3 Postby **Kevin_Wx** » Thu Apr 24, 2003 8:47 pm

2 named storms before June 1st...OUTRAGEOUS! Actually, there is some model support and some run-to-run consistency as far as developing a low NE of the Bahamas. Still, it is far too early to know if the conditions will be favorable for another subtropical system.

If we somehow, just somehow, see Bill before June 1st, I think we would be possibly seeing sometype of a precursor to a VERY active season. 1 storm may not always mean much, but two IMO would be huge.

Amanzi · #4 Postby **Amanzi** » Thu Apr 24, 2003 9:16 pm

WOW!

I am not very good at reading modles. SO you guys are going to have to keep me and the others updated. That would be totally amazing to have 2 storms before the season even begings officially. Please update on the model runs if possible

Steve H. · #5 Postby **Steve H.** » Thu Apr 24, 2003 10:14 pm

The AVN has been showing this for about the last 4 days, on and off, and the NOGAPS alluded to it yesterday, as Rainband posted, with a cluster of thunderstorms off the SE Florida coast. The AVN shows the weak low pressure near West Palm on day 5 (at least it did on the 12Z run). It actually showed a couple of suspect areas, as disturbances will ride a washed out front that drapes across the FL peninsula. So if Bill forms, it could be in be western atlantic near Bermuda, or anywhere from the SE GOM to the Bahamas (Models show a low near Bermuda and at the same time one near the Florida Straits). This does not mean Bill will happen, but its the PATTERN we have to watch, as high pressure near the mid-atlantic may play a role with any potential formation. We'll see. The one thing that is getting favorable are the SSTs around the Florida peninsula. For a "Bill" to form it will have to be a similar setup as Ana. Cheers!! 8)

Derek Ortt · #6 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Apr 24, 2003 10:17 pm

2 storms are meaningless. 1997 showed that even 5 my mid Luly are meaningless. It is what happens in Aug,Sept, and Oct that make all of the difference

OtherHD · #7 Postby **OtherHD** » Thu Apr 24, 2003 10:21 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:2 storms are meaningless. 1997 showed that even 5 my mid Luly are meaningless. It is what happens in Aug,Sept, and Oct that make all of the difference

Derek, I was about to say the same thing. I had my post all typed out and everything but decided not to post it, cause I remembered 1997 had a very strong El Nino and with conditions probably being more favorable this year, that perhaps it could be a precursor...

Ana alone doesn't tell anything about the upcoming season, regardless of the ENSO phase, but if we can get to Bill before June (which I doubt will happen), I will start to wonder... :o

Kevin_Wx · #8 Postby **Kevin_Wx** » Fri Apr 25, 2003 5:23 am

OtherHD wrote:Ana alone doesn't tell anything about the upcoming season, regardless of the ENSO phase, but if we can get to Bill before June (which I doubt will happen), I will start to wonder... :o

Right...with a more favorable ENSO phase, Bill occuring before June 1st MAY indicate something. Come to think of it, some like that could mean an earlier start. And I'll also mention that some of the more classic hurricane seasons in the 1950's had weak storms in June and July, during the SAME season!

#9 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Apr 25, 2003 6:33 am

I second what Kevin and HD said about Bill forming before june 1 and if that happens then the season may have similar or even a little more activity than 2001 when 15 systems formed but time will tell if this system that the models show is going to do anything but keep an eye on the models and to the patterns in the atlantic.

#10 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Apr 25, 2003 7:53 am

http://152.80.49.210/CGI/PUBLIC/wxmap_l ... 2003042500

The latest run from the GFS model shows something northeast of the Bahamas next week but still nothing conclusive to say if something more than an area of showers and thunderstorms will form there.I guess that more runs from all the models are needed to see if there is consistency in all of them developing something or on the contrary nothing will happen but time will tell in the comming days.

ColdFront77 · #11 Postby **ColdFront77** » Fri Apr 25, 2003 12:57 pm

There is a possibility of having "Bill" in the next 37 days. We have forecast models for a reason that are indicating low pressure development, than we can't discount them totally.

This season is already rare enough with one developing system before June 1st, imagine another.

Guest · #12 Postby **Guest** » Fri Apr 25, 2003 1:33 pm

Will we see Bill - are the models still suggesting another Tropical development?

#13 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Apr 26, 2003 10:09 am

http://152.80.49.210/CGI/PUBLIC/wxmap_l ... 2003042600

This is the latest nogaps model run and still nothing to mention about development into a bonifide system but clearly it shows a system in the Florida straits moving northeast with a low pressure there but that is all in terms of not more that a simple low pressure but let's wait for more runs of the models to see if there are changes.

ColdFront77 · #14 Postby **ColdFront77** » Sat Apr 26, 2003 12:45 pm

By the way, I meant that the chances of "Bill" before June 1st is possible in terms of the latest forecast model maps and June 1st being 36 days away. I by no means think just because "Ana" formed seven weeks before the official start of the season would "Bill" be forming any time soon.

Stormsfury · #15 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sat Apr 26, 2003 7:29 pm

Looking back at my logs from 1886 to present --- there have never been two pre-season tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic. So if there is a "Bill" before June 1st, it will also be a historical first ...

ColdFront77 · #16 Postby **ColdFront77** » Sat Apr 26, 2003 9:20 pm

Mike, that historical event would be great.

I read this shortly after you posted it yesterday or the day before.

chadtm80 · #17 Postby **chadtm80** » Mon Apr 28, 2003 4:17 pm

Mike, that historical event would be great

Heck ya it would

Models hint of something in atlantic

Models hint of something in atlantic

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