More strong evidence of neutral to la nina year

[cycloneye]

http://aposf02.cityu.edu.hk/~mcg/ENSO/enso_2003_APR.htm

This is the latest outlook that confirms what we the experts know already for many months now that el nino will not be around during the 2003 hurricane season but neutral to la nina conditions will prevail and this factor alone will be favorable for more activity in the atlantic basin.But of course we have to look at the other factors to see if some of them cancel the ENSO one but what I see at this time the majority of the factors are favorable.

[Steve]

Hey Cy-eye,

Here's the plot from 4/13-4/19 (deviation from climatology). I think it's getting more and more obvious that if this isn't just a temporary pulse (2-3 months), we're on our way to La Nina.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/atl_anom.gif

Steve

[cycloneye]

Yeah that el nino 1-2 area off southamerica is now at the most coolest and that pool of cool waters is expanding westward.

http://152.80.49.210/products/OTIS/US05 ... nomaly.gif

[cycloneye]

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/ ... y_ps32.gif

More evidence is piling up about the fading away of el nino.Look at those anomalys expanding eastward from southamerica.-1.0 readings are found at el nino 1-2 area and -0.5 in the el nino 3 region.

[vbhoutex]

With so many different analyses pointing to a minimum of a neutral event if we don't have one, it will be surprising. Thanks for all of the links and research Luis!!

[cycloneye]

David you thought that it was the last link about ENSO but here is one more

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom_loop.gif


3 month loop shows the same evidence in the pacific.

[vbhoutex]

David you thought that it was the last link about ENSO but here is one more

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom_loop.gif


3 month loop shows the same evidence in the pacific.

Thanks Luis!!!

[Kevin_Wx]

Actually, we could probably stop discussing on which phase ENSO will be in by the peak of the hurricane season--it will be a weak cold event, and will enhance hurricane activity in the same way the cold events of the late 90's did. With the way the factors are shaping up, I'd be prepared for both an active season and some maybe some nasty surprises if I lived anywhere along the US coastline. Expect this La Nina to influence the hurricane activity during the peak (and late) season the same way last year's El Nino did, but in a positive way (obviously).

[Anonymous]

Subsurface Eq Pacific temperature anomaly trends (notice how the cool tongue has deepend since earlier this year)

[cycloneye]

http://www.dar.csiro.au/climate/coca.html

More and more evidence is comming that shows what we know from past months about the demise of el nino.

But the question now is if neutral conditions will prevail during the hurricane season or la nina will appear.I go with weak la nina to be at the peak of the season by august and september.

[hcane]

Three items.... first, the effect of a la Nina should be an enhancing factor yes, but to the extent that it would be is still debateable. There is no firm eveidence that a la Nina actually increases the number of storms, but there is incontrovertable evidence that an el Nino inhibits. Second, if indeed there is a cool event, by the time of full development, the main tropical formation season will probably have already passed, so influence will be minimal. Three, there is a much higher positive relationship to Gulf landfalling systems in a la Nina year than an el Nino year. This does not hold true for the east coast. As well, the reverse is not true.

[cycloneye]

Yes true what you say about not nessesary correct that la nina makes a season very active because then other factors may come and cancel the la nina favorable one.

[Rainband]

Time will tell!!! Thanks for the input guys!!

[Kevin_Wx]

Three, there is a much higher positive relationship to Gulf landfalling systems in a la Nina year than an el Nino year. This does not hold true for the east coast. As well, the reverse is not true.

What?????? Actually, if you go back and look at the climate data, you will find that throughout history La Nina years are consistently more active along the East Coast than El Nino years are. In fact, some research indicates that what coast will be more active depends upon climatology. The GOMEX runs MUCH more on climo than the East Coast does. I think that many people dont know (or forget) that the circulation patterns (aka Bermuda High) change around during a La Nina. Also, the ATC can also contribute to a La Nina's enhancing effects. Also, La Nina years are almost always active 100% of the time during warm ATC periods. Everybody looks at those years during the early 1900's that supposedly had very strong cold events with weak ATC's. Most of those seasons weren't active--or the tracking wasn't all that great either.

hcane, please look at history, climatology, and factors that influence Atlantic TC activity before you post. IMO, (no harm intended), that post was somewhat misleading.

As for the timing of the cool event, well, we already have cooling out there. Remember last year's Nino development? The timeframe of this season's Nina development could be similar. I remember how everybody was saying El Nino wouldn't develop in time to effect the season. Guess what? It did. We are looking at a similar timeframe for this Nina. Perhaps we will see a similar but positive effect compared to last year's Nino.

[hcane]

I have looked at the climatological data. On my web site I have all the data available as well as links to other studies by more well-known than myself tropical meteorologists that will validate my statements. I will post those as soon as I get home from my business travels.
And, just to add a small bit of info, my forecasts for last year were by formation zones and landfall locations, 3 months in advance. The forecasts were extremely promising. This year we will forecast beginning in May, as it appears that it will be an "early starting" season. And that statement does NOT include ANA. And if you will check climatology, you will also find that in "most" years, with an "early" start, there is a higher probability of a normal to less than normal season. That study is also on the site.

[Steve]

That should be interesting hcane. I'm looking forward to it. I wasn't sure there was anything that correlated with increased Gulf landfalls. I know last year was the perfect setup with the drought in the mid-Atlantic, warm water off the NE and formation west of 70.

There are some arguments that a surpressed El Nino season leads to IH landfalls in the Gulf (Andrew, Betsy, etc.), but there isn't enough data to prove that over the long haul. In any event, post your website because I'd love to see the research.

Steve