INTERESTING!!!

#1 Postby **vbhoutex** » Sat Apr 26, 2003 2:17 am

Is that a turning in the clouds I see in the BOC? If it is there it is really difficult to detect. I've looked at WV and infrared loops. Possible!

I am not wishcasting here!!! It is mentioned in the latest NHC discussion! So I had to check it out!! Only time will tell!!

ColdFront77 · #2 Postby **ColdFront77** » Sat Apr 26, 2003 2:26 am

I just checked, David. It sure did lose a lot of the convection it had. It may have a slight spin to it.

#3 Postby **vbhoutex** » Sat Apr 26, 2003 8:25 am

Latest out of the NHC discussion concerning this is: 1006 MB LOW HAS FORMED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HOWEVER THERE IS
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE.

I don't think it is often we see a 1006mb low without convection. It will be interesting to see what the next few days brings in this area since this is one of the times of year it becomes tropically active, even though SAT's are not up to par in that area yet for tropical development. They are getting close in a few areas of the S GOM and BOC, but aren't quite there. However, if one bases probabaility of TC formation only on the SST's present(shame, shame)then the Caribbean looks like it is getting quite ripe for Tropical Cyclogenesis.

#4 Postby **vbhoutex** » Sat Apr 26, 2003 9:47 am

And what is this I see in the models in the Florida straits? Could be interesting to see what develops!!!!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_slp_042l.gif

ColdFront77 · #5 Postby **ColdFront77** » Sat Apr 26, 2003 12:28 pm

Anonymous · #6 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Apr 26, 2003 1:24 pm

The low in the Bay of Campeche doesn't have a chance. There is 50-60 knot shear, sea surface temperatures in the mid 70s and way too much sinking air. The low will begin moving northward towards the central and western GOM in a few days, as the southerly flow around a high pressure system returns to the coast.

The shower and thunderstorm activity near the Straights of Florida is the beginning of the formation of a low we've been talking about. A weak low may develop along an old frontal boundary while moving east and then ENE towards Bermuda. The models aren't showing the low as good as they were over the last two days. The chances of Bill developing this week are a lot less likely than Ana's chances were a few days before she was classified. Should we still watch it? Hell yeah! :lol:

ColdFront77 · #7 Postby **ColdFront77** » Sat Apr 26, 2003 1:27 pm

I agree with you 100%, TropicalWxWatcher. There is nothing I see that indicates that the feature in the Bay of Campeche has any chance of development, honest.

Anonymous · #8 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Apr 26, 2003 3:06 pm

The Bay of Campeche swirl isn't even worth watching IMO.

ColdFront77 · #9 Postby **ColdFront77** » Sat Apr 26, 2003 3:23 pm

Good point, Rob.

Steve H. · #10 Postby **Steve H.** » Mon Apr 28, 2003 7:30 am

Ses Surface Temperatures are starting to climb nicely now that the seas have calm and the temps have gone up here in Florida. The GOM temps are beginning to rise steadily, with 26/27 degree temps filling the SW GOM, moving north. Also of note is the central Atlantic. I don't know how good the fidelity of the NOAA data is but a rapid spike of warmth has bloomed between 45W - 30W, between 15N - 30N. Shows nice oranges there now, filling in the basin. Wonder if Ana helped haul some warm water north

. Conditions are looking better and better by the day. Eastern Atlantic SSTs are also warming. Remember last year the strong high pressure in the east kept a NE flow down the coast of Africa and drew cold water down from off the coast of Spain. Don't think that setup will happen this year. Only about a month now. Cheers!!

#11 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Apr 28, 2003 7:45 am

Agree on that Steve the sst's are more warmer than last year at this time because I always look west of 50w the eddy there from 10n to 20n and it is more warmer now there and that will expand with time.

http://maps.weather.com/images/maps/tro ... 20x486.jpg

ColdFront77 · #12 Postby **ColdFront77** » Mon Apr 28, 2003 1:18 pm

Interesting water temperature for sure. This being an important factor in tropical development. Shows us that "Bill" may not be too far off, after all.

81 degree water temperature off the southeast Cuba coast is quite warm. I assume this is at least slightly above average for April 28th.

Anonymous · #13 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Apr 28, 2003 3:05 pm

ColdFront77 wrote:Interesting water temperature for sure. This being an important factor in tropical development. Shows us that "Bill" may not be too far off, after all.

But if there is strong shear and dry air present, the warm SSTAs mean nothing. ALL, or at least most of the factors have to come together for us to see Bill.

ColdFront77 · #14 Postby **ColdFront77** » Mon Apr 28, 2003 3:06 pm

Of course I understand that, Rob.

Colin · #15 Postby **Colin** » Mon Apr 28, 2003 3:35 pm

Well, anything with a "spin" feature to it is pretty interesting, this time of year. I can see why David (vbhoutex) got excited over this.

ColdFront77 · #16 Postby **ColdFront77** » Mon Apr 28, 2003 11:46 pm

I agree with you, Colin. Any "spin" in late April and May is worth watching, because there typically aren't many of them.

Upper level wind shear obviously rips circulations when they are over any sea surface temperatures. Although, there have been some stubborn system in a shear environment in the last couple years. I can't think of a specific storm at the moment.

ColdFront77 · #17 Postby **ColdFront77** » Tue Apr 29, 2003 3:27 pm

It looks like the feature that was in the Bay of Campeche is what has blown up today in the Gulf of Mexico. Perhaps not... but it came from that general direction, even indirectly.

INTERESTING!!!

INTERESTING!!!

SSTs

Who is online