GOM Blob
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Now that's the Blob
Must be Bill Blobby Southern 
I just put sod down in my front yard, so I need rain!!! Got a sprinkle yesterday, and a shower for 5 minutes or less this morning. Bring it on!!!!!!!!!!!!
I just put sod down in my front yard, so I need rain!!! Got a sprinkle yesterday, and a shower for 5 minutes or less this morning. Bring it on!!!!!!!!!!!!
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chadtm80
- Category 5
- Posts: 20381
- Age: 43
- Joined: Tue Oct 08, 2002 8:35 am
- Location: East Central Florida
- Contact:
Hey Floidians like me who were upset about missing out on the Rain from the blob, check the GOM out now... Looks as if there is more out there now and appears to be heading our way 
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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Rainband
West central and southwest Florida forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay area - Ruskin Florida
259 PM EDT Wednesday Apr 30 2003
My hat is off to the GFS...pressure are falling across the central
Gulf. Showers and thunderstorms look like a good bet. In fact if
the GFS works out we will see a pretty nice low level jet out ahead
over a developing low...implying decent low level shear. I just can
not imagine pressure falling as fast as the GFS indicates so I will
hold off on mentioning any strong thunderstorms at this time. Heavy
rain does look like a good bet...but even with the heavy rain of last
week...flood potential does not look that bad.
The system...short wave aloft and surface low...pulls out Thursday
afternoon and after that there is little change in weather patterns
for the rest of the period. A weak ridge builds over US aloft...the
surface ridge builds across the state then east into the Atlantic.
Some residual moisture remains so a few PM mostly inland showers are
possible. By Sunday southeasterly winds may push a few of these
closer to the coast as well as give a little extra jolt of moisture.
Based on the GFS and coordination with Miami I will increase winds
over the coastal waters to Small Craft Advisory criteria...but well below the GFS
which has near gale conditions. This will be short lived and nice
boating conditions will return by late Thursday.
Preliminary numbers
bkv 067/085 063/085 5412
tpa 071/084 073/085 7413
gif 070/085 070/085 6524
srq 070/083 071/084 8413
fmy 070/086 072/085 9513
National Weather Service Tampa Bay area - Ruskin Florida
259 PM EDT Wednesday Apr 30 2003
My hat is off to the GFS...pressure are falling across the central
Gulf. Showers and thunderstorms look like a good bet. In fact if
the GFS works out we will see a pretty nice low level jet out ahead
over a developing low...implying decent low level shear. I just can
not imagine pressure falling as fast as the GFS indicates so I will
hold off on mentioning any strong thunderstorms at this time. Heavy
rain does look like a good bet...but even with the heavy rain of last
week...flood potential does not look that bad.
The system...short wave aloft and surface low...pulls out Thursday
afternoon and after that there is little change in weather patterns
for the rest of the period. A weak ridge builds over US aloft...the
surface ridge builds across the state then east into the Atlantic.
Some residual moisture remains so a few PM mostly inland showers are
possible. By Sunday southeasterly winds may push a few of these
closer to the coast as well as give a little extra jolt of moisture.
Based on the GFS and coordination with Miami I will increase winds
over the coastal waters to Small Craft Advisory criteria...but well below the GFS
which has near gale conditions. This will be short lived and nice
boating conditions will return by late Thursday.
Preliminary numbers
bkv 067/085 063/085 5412
tpa 071/084 073/085 7413
gif 070/085 070/085 6524
srq 070/083 071/084 8413
fmy 070/086 072/085 9513
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vbhoutex
- Storm2k Executive
- Posts: 28974
- Age: 72
- Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 11:31 pm
- Location: Spring Branch area, Houston, TX
- Contact:
BLOBBY No. 2 is on the way!!! 
Maybe you'll get some from this one? I noticed it was getting pretty rough around Miami earlier today.
I wonder if there are any more BLOBBIES to follow?
Maybe you'll get some from this one? I noticed it was getting pretty rough around Miami earlier today.
I wonder if there are any more BLOBBIES to follow?
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Skywarn, C.E.R.T.
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Rainband
:o-
Rainband
Looks like I am going to be missing out on this one 
000
FXUS62 KMLB 301834
AFDMLB
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
230 PM EDT WED APR 30 2003
...WIDESPREAD RAINS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THU...HEAVY AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS...
100 KT SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS BAJA CA WILL BE PUSHING EAST ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH H5 S/W WILL INDUCE
A WEAK SFC LOW IN THE GULF WHICH WILL CROSS THE PENINSULA THU. 12Z
GFS IS COMING MORE INTO LINE WITH 12Z ETA SO THIS INCREASES FORECAST
CONFIDENCE FOR THE UPCOMING RAIN EVENT TONIGHT AND THU. GFS LIKELY
CONTINUES TO SUFFER FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND DO NOT TRUST ITS
BULLS-EYES OF VORTICITY...UVM...QPF OUTPUT AND CLOSED 1009 MB SFC
LOW. HOWEVER...THE GFS TRACK AND TIMING FOR THE WEAK SFC LOW HAS
COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ETA...BRINGING IT NE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PENINSULA THU MORNING. LIKE ETA DEPICTION OF OPEN WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THAN THE DEEPER GFS. IF THE STRONGER GFS WERE
TO VERIFY...THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WOULD INCREASE. BUT THINK
THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS EVENT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN CAUSING SOME
URBAN FLOODING PROBLEMS ESP SOUTH.
THE BAND OF CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA IS SLOWLY CREEPING
NORTHWARD. WE SHOULD SEE RAIN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE INCREASING UPPER DIV
TONIGHT. PRIOR TO THAT...WE SHOULD SEE TYPICAL DIURNAL CONVECTION
THIS AFTN AND EVE FOCUSING ALONG PRE-EXISTING BOUNDARIES.
HEAVIEST RAIN TONIGHT/THU IS LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES (MARTIN... ST LUCIE...OKEECHOBEE). WILL CALL FOR WIDESPREAD
1-2" OF TOTAL RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY 4" POSSIBLE THERE. WHILE
EVERYONE SHOULD GET SOME RAIN...AS YOU GO NORTH THE THREAT OF HEAVY
RAIN DECREASES...AND THAT IS THE FORECAST CHALLENGE. EXPECT WIDE
SPREAD 0.50-1.00" FROM ORLANDO NORTHWARD WITH LOCALLY UP TO 2"
POSSIBLE. WILL NOT PUT UP A FLOOD WATCH AS MANY AREAS ARE BELOW
NORMAL FOR MONTH OF APRIL SO RETENTION PONDS AND NEW VEGETATION
SHOULD HANDLE IT AND SOAK IT UP. WILL UPDATE HWO THIS AFTN TO
HIGHLIGHT HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS.
FRI-WED...WESTERLY (OFFSHORE) FLOW FRI AND SAT WILL PRODUCE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS WITH LOWER 90S POSSIBLE. UNCLEAR IF FLOW WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF THE SEA BREEZE. IT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH
OF SFC LOW PULLING AWAY INTO THE ATLC. WILL SHOW SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST ASSUMING AT LEAST A LATE SEA BREEZE GETS
GOING. ON SUNDAY...OFFSHORE GRADIENT FLOW WEAKENS AS WEAK TROUGH
DROPS INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL PERMIT AN EARLIER SEA BREEZE.
EXTENDED GFS CHANGING ITS TUNE FOR MON-TUE AS IT SHOWS BERMUDA HIGH
REESTABLISHING ITSELF WITH MOIST SE FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.
THIS WOULD NOT PRODUCE THE COOLER EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW FROM HIGH
BUILDING DOWN THE EAST COAST AS IT DEPICTED YESTERDAY. WILL ADJUST
TEMPS UPWARD SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS NEW SOLUTION. WED...GFS
SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS N FL. THIS IS
PROBABLY OVERDONE AND TOO FAST SO WILL INTRODUCE ONLY ISOLATED POPS
WED FOR NOW.
MARINE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TONIGHT IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND CROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THURSDAY. AN OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY...
WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING SUNDAY.
PRELIM...
DAB RB 068/084 066/087 066 6623
MCO RB 068/085 068/089 066 6622
MLB RB 070/087 068/087 066 7723= 28
.MLB...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE...KELLY
000
FXUS62 KMLB 301834
AFDMLB
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
230 PM EDT WED APR 30 2003
...WIDESPREAD RAINS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THU...HEAVY AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS...
100 KT SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS BAJA CA WILL BE PUSHING EAST ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH H5 S/W WILL INDUCE
A WEAK SFC LOW IN THE GULF WHICH WILL CROSS THE PENINSULA THU. 12Z
GFS IS COMING MORE INTO LINE WITH 12Z ETA SO THIS INCREASES FORECAST
CONFIDENCE FOR THE UPCOMING RAIN EVENT TONIGHT AND THU. GFS LIKELY
CONTINUES TO SUFFER FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND DO NOT TRUST ITS
BULLS-EYES OF VORTICITY...UVM...QPF OUTPUT AND CLOSED 1009 MB SFC
LOW. HOWEVER...THE GFS TRACK AND TIMING FOR THE WEAK SFC LOW HAS
COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ETA...BRINGING IT NE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PENINSULA THU MORNING. LIKE ETA DEPICTION OF OPEN WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THAN THE DEEPER GFS. IF THE STRONGER GFS WERE
TO VERIFY...THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WOULD INCREASE. BUT THINK
THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS EVENT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN CAUSING SOME
URBAN FLOODING PROBLEMS ESP SOUTH.
THE BAND OF CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA IS SLOWLY CREEPING
NORTHWARD. WE SHOULD SEE RAIN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE INCREASING UPPER DIV
TONIGHT. PRIOR TO THAT...WE SHOULD SEE TYPICAL DIURNAL CONVECTION
THIS AFTN AND EVE FOCUSING ALONG PRE-EXISTING BOUNDARIES.
HEAVIEST RAIN TONIGHT/THU IS LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES (MARTIN... ST LUCIE...OKEECHOBEE). WILL CALL FOR WIDESPREAD
1-2" OF TOTAL RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY 4" POSSIBLE THERE. WHILE
EVERYONE SHOULD GET SOME RAIN...AS YOU GO NORTH THE THREAT OF HEAVY
RAIN DECREASES...AND THAT IS THE FORECAST CHALLENGE. EXPECT WIDE
SPREAD 0.50-1.00" FROM ORLANDO NORTHWARD WITH LOCALLY UP TO 2"
POSSIBLE. WILL NOT PUT UP A FLOOD WATCH AS MANY AREAS ARE BELOW
NORMAL FOR MONTH OF APRIL SO RETENTION PONDS AND NEW VEGETATION
SHOULD HANDLE IT AND SOAK IT UP. WILL UPDATE HWO THIS AFTN TO
HIGHLIGHT HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS.
FRI-WED...WESTERLY (OFFSHORE) FLOW FRI AND SAT WILL PRODUCE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS WITH LOWER 90S POSSIBLE. UNCLEAR IF FLOW WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF THE SEA BREEZE. IT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH
OF SFC LOW PULLING AWAY INTO THE ATLC. WILL SHOW SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST ASSUMING AT LEAST A LATE SEA BREEZE GETS
GOING. ON SUNDAY...OFFSHORE GRADIENT FLOW WEAKENS AS WEAK TROUGH
DROPS INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL PERMIT AN EARLIER SEA BREEZE.
EXTENDED GFS CHANGING ITS TUNE FOR MON-TUE AS IT SHOWS BERMUDA HIGH
REESTABLISHING ITSELF WITH MOIST SE FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.
THIS WOULD NOT PRODUCE THE COOLER EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW FROM HIGH
BUILDING DOWN THE EAST COAST AS IT DEPICTED YESTERDAY. WILL ADJUST
TEMPS UPWARD SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS NEW SOLUTION. WED...GFS
SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS N FL. THIS IS
PROBABLY OVERDONE AND TOO FAST SO WILL INTRODUCE ONLY ISOLATED POPS
WED FOR NOW.
MARINE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TONIGHT IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND CROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THURSDAY. AN OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY...
WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING SUNDAY.
PRELIM...
DAB RB 068/084 066/087 066 6623
MCO RB 068/085 068/089 066 6622
MLB RB 070/087 068/087 066 7723= 28
.MLB...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE...KELLY
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