GOM Blob
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Bron - I will always remember Tropical Storm Allision two years ago - she was a blob and a pathetic looking blob as stated by some and she blew into a Tropical Storm - made landfall and the rest is history. First lesson in BLOBS - Bron - is don't ever ever turn your back on one. It might seem harmless and all the conditions to inhibit its growth - can disappear at the blink of an eye and you have a tropical system. Breinla and Bfez can back me up on this .... chad too!!!!!
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cycloneye
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http://www.tormenta.net/frame_page.asp? ... XNT20.KNHC
The Discussion from TPC is out but basiclly it not says anything of nothing tropical in nature at this time but what it says is that it is a divergent flow that is allowing that area to blow into a big thunderstorm complex.
But for sure plenty of rain will go to florida as this big mass begins to move east as the models show in their runs but no development so far from them but I dont expect any development from it because of the strong shear but hey never say never in the tropics and after Ana anything can happen so stay tuned here at the tropical board.
The Discussion from TPC is out but basiclly it not says anything of nothing tropical in nature at this time but what it says is that it is a divergent flow that is allowing that area to blow into a big thunderstorm complex.
But for sure plenty of rain will go to florida as this big mass begins to move east as the models show in their runs but no development so far from them but I dont expect any development from it because of the strong shear but hey never say never in the tropics and after Ana anything can happen so stay tuned here at the tropical board.
Last edited by cycloneye on Tue Apr 29, 2003 1:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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cycloneye
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http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/fl/discussion.html
Amanzi and all floridians here is the floridas discussion and rain is in the forecast for a big portion of florida as this shortwave trough moves east.
Chad I am trying to get a shear map here as soon as possible.
Amanzi and all floridians here is the floridas discussion and rain is in the forecast for a big portion of florida as this shortwave trough moves east.
Chad I am trying to get a shear map here as soon as possible.
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cycloneye
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Chad here is the shear map.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF
It shows tight lines in the GOM that indicates strong shear from the west from 50-80 kts so unless that shear goes down I dont see nothing developing from it but it is interesting to see a large thunderstorm complex like this one and another thing to watch is if it persist for more than 24 hours.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF
It shows tight lines in the GOM that indicates strong shear from the west from 50-80 kts so unless that shear goes down I dont see nothing developing from it but it is interesting to see a large thunderstorm complex like this one and another thing to watch is if it persist for more than 24 hours.
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Yes, there is a slight circulation associated with 'the blob', but nothing that I am too worried about. It will probably only be a rainmaker. Conditions may become more favorable, but we will have to wait and see what unfolds over the next couple of days. As of right now, the upper level shear looks to strong for anything to develop.
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Kevin_Wx
THE MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS THE GLFMEX
WHERE A STRONG SUBTRPCL JET TO 100 KT EXTENDING FROM THE E
PACIFIC OVER N MEXICO IS NOW ENTERING THE W GLFMEX WITH A
COPIOUS PLUME OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAKING EWD. THE JET SPLITS NEAR THE BORDER OF S TEXAS WITH THE S STEAM MOVING SE TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND A DEVELOPING N STREAM EXTENDING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO S FLORIDA. THE FLOW BECOMES DIVERGENT WHERE THE JET SPLITS WHICH IS PROVIDING THE DYNAMICS/LIFT FOR A LARGE AREA OF NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL GLFMEX ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT. SEE SURFACE SYNOPTIC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE DYNAMICS SUPPORTING THIS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE NORTHERNMOST JET STREAK
STRENGTHENS ALLOWING THE ASSOCIATE CONVECTION TO PROPAGATE
EWD.
Doesn't look to promising.
WHERE A STRONG SUBTRPCL JET TO 100 KT EXTENDING FROM THE E
PACIFIC OVER N MEXICO IS NOW ENTERING THE W GLFMEX WITH A
COPIOUS PLUME OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAKING EWD. THE JET SPLITS NEAR THE BORDER OF S TEXAS WITH THE S STEAM MOVING SE TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND A DEVELOPING N STREAM EXTENDING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO S FLORIDA. THE FLOW BECOMES DIVERGENT WHERE THE JET SPLITS WHICH IS PROVIDING THE DYNAMICS/LIFT FOR A LARGE AREA OF NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL GLFMEX ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT. SEE SURFACE SYNOPTIC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE DYNAMICS SUPPORTING THIS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE NORTHERNMOST JET STREAK
STRENGTHENS ALLOWING THE ASSOCIATE CONVECTION TO PROPAGATE
EWD.
Doesn't look to promising.
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vbhoutex
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MOST DEFINITELY ONE OF THE MOST IMPRESSIVE BLOBS I'VE EVER SEEN.
However, conditions are not good for development to occur, just as Cyc says. I am, however, watching this VERY CLOSELY, because as Ticka says the little blob I was watching 2 years ago turned into a monster tropical storm. Everyone including NHC was saying it was nothing and as I watched it closely I saw it all coming together despite some conditions that were not good for development. As Ticka says, the rest is history. I know Perry remembers our discussions of pre-Allison vividly and then...history. So, even though nothing of great import is expected of this system, nor am I predicting it at this time, like Cyc says, NEVER SAY NEVER IN THE TROPICS!
And the obvious is that much of S and Central FL will get a good dousing from this system as it crosses the peninsula. It will probably cross S FL with the "center" of the convection moving from a Ft. Myers to Fort Pierce line or maybe a little further south.
However, conditions are not good for development to occur, just as Cyc says. I am, however, watching this VERY CLOSELY, because as Ticka says the little blob I was watching 2 years ago turned into a monster tropical storm. Everyone including NHC was saying it was nothing and as I watched it closely I saw it all coming together despite some conditions that were not good for development. As Ticka says, the rest is history. I know Perry remembers our discussions of pre-Allison vividly and then...history. So, even though nothing of great import is expected of this system, nor am I predicting it at this time, like Cyc says, NEVER SAY NEVER IN THE TROPICS!
And the obvious is that much of S and Central FL will get a good dousing from this system as it crosses the peninsula. It will probably cross S FL with the "center" of the convection moving from a Ft. Myers to Fort Pierce line or maybe a little further south.
Last edited by vbhoutex on Tue Apr 29, 2003 2:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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southerngale
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southerngale
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Yeah David, I remember it all too well also. No chance for development...but it did. Then it was "a poor excuse for a tropical storm" as quoted from a local met here. Of course when everything was flooding, nobody here thought it was a poor excuse for a tropical storm!!
That is one storm I'll never forget!
I will forever watch blobs more closely.
That is one storm I'll never forget!
I will forever watch blobs more closely.
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Impressive blob? Yeah, but it won't go any further. It's just a strong divergence-related convection blow-up. Nothing out of the ordinary.
On a side note, the slight spin you see on visible satellite imagery is in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere, rather than at the surface (you need a surface low for a TC to form).
On a side note, the slight spin you see on visible satellite imagery is in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere, rather than at the surface (you need a surface low for a TC to form).
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ColdFront77
This is certainly a busy thread. I have read every post in it and just checked the Sumter, Marion and Northern Lake county forecasts from the Ruskin (Tampa Bay Area), Jacksonville and Melbourne, Florida National Weather Service offices, respectively and they all are continuing with a 20 to 30 percent chance of rain for this entire week.
Only Marion county's forecast says a 50 percent chance of rain for Thursday, which seems; which is just about 48 hours from now.
There is sure a reason to watch this system with shear at 90 to 100 knots. Storms have been over wind shear this high and wind shear has subsided. I have no reason to say that this would be the case with this one, but as weather enthusiasts we really like to discuss these large blobs.
Only Marion county's forecast says a 50 percent chance of rain for Thursday, which seems; which is just about 48 hours from now.
There is sure a reason to watch this system with shear at 90 to 100 knots. Storms have been over wind shear this high and wind shear has subsided. I have no reason to say that this would be the case with this one, but as weather enthusiasts we really like to discuss these large blobs.
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PTrackerLA
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