Conditions are not favorable for development of GOM complex

[cycloneye]

It may look impressive at sat pics yes but conditions are not favorable for cyclogeneris as shear is very strong between 50-100kts and this system is mainly at upper to mid levels and no surface low has been analized there but an upper to mid level circulation.

What can happen to this system to be tropical in nature well have a surface low,shear to fade away and ideal water temps none of those are favorable at this time.

I agree that this has been the biggest blob of convection in the GOM for a long time but being so big still conditions are not favorable.

The models dont are so agressive with this complex as it moves eastnortheast towards florida where rain will be a sure thing.

Note:
Of course things can change and conditions become more favorable for tropical development and yes never say never in the tropics but right now it will be a rain producer for florida.If there are any changes I will inform it here at the best board for tropical information storm2k by far.

[Guest]

I think we all agree its not going to develop Luis - just amazing how much overall its grown since Chad posted the link. In my first post on this - I hope it brings some much needed rain to someone.

Blob 101 continues.

[chadtm80]

All I care about is how interesting the pre-season has been

[Rainband]

I have one thing to say!!!! NEVER SAY NEVER!!!! I admit conditions are hostile for development..but last year proved experts can be as lost as the rest of us...Weather..ah beautiful and unpredictable!!!! Anything can happen...Thats what makes a first a first After saying this with the knowledge I have read and heard from the forecasters..The chances are slim but It is still fun to watch!!! As Ticka said...Blob 101 continues

[cycloneye]

Yes we still are in april chad.

[cycloneye]

What I can say in favor of this complex is that when it gets into the atlantic then conditions may become more favorable as models like UKMET and AVN show in their 12z runs but still are not very agressive with it in the atlantic so let's watch it in the atlantic not in the GOM and even there development is not so high but at least it is somewhat better than in the GOM.

[cycloneye]

http://www.tormenta.net/frame_page.asp? ... XNT20.KNHC

The latest discussion from TPC at the second paragrafh confirms that no tropical development will take place at this time but upper features are the dominant factors on this complex.

[StormLover]

This is getting realy weird folks. First Ana now this thing. The convection is impressive and you can see it actually pulling that system over Mexico right into itself. Interesting for sure.

[Anonymous]

Our Blobby is beginning to look like smashed dog mess. Courtesy of shear.

[Stormsfury]

The Yucatan is sure catching hell tonight ...

The thunderstorms, likely very severe, is driven by a screaming SBJ, and pretty much all the ingredients needed for a nasty severe weather outbreak if that was situated over the Great Plains, Deep South, or Southeast .... talk about a convective cluster!

[cycloneye]

That will go to western Cuba also tommorow dumpimg to them plenty of rain.

[jabber]

To early....be patient, it will happen.