At the risk of sounding really stupid........

[GulfBreezer]

I have been on this board since last year and I read virtually every single post. I have a question and it may sound really stupid but could someone explain the ENSO and la nina and el nino factors to me? In a way that a "non-meteorologist weather freak" can understand. I read the posts and I understand some of it but without a real base-line understanding, I get lost easily with all the terms. I really appreciate you guys taking me under your wing and helping this novice understand!
Thanks in advance!!

[cycloneye]

No Gulfbreezer no question is stupid at all because you will find an answer to any question.

Here is a link that you will have to read for a period of time because it is a long answer to your question but I can say to you that ENSO means(EL NINO SOUTHERN OCCILATION) and I can tell you that el nino is detrimental for activity in the atlantic basin in terms of more hurricanes.Last year was a great example of el nino shutting down the season by early october after Lili.La nina is a favorable factor for more activity but If I continue I wont finish this post but in the link all the questions that you may have about ENSO,el nino and la nina are answered.

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/faq.html

[GulfBreezer]

Thank you so much!! I printed it all out and have enough reading material to keep me busy for a while! I appreciate you taking the time to answer me!

[chadtm80]

No such thing as a stupid question Gulf.. Especially here at storm2k, and if anyone ever does anything to make you feel that way, just give me a holler and ill slap em' in the head

[cycloneye]

yw Gulfbreezer and this is why storm2k is the best about tropical information around the net because we here have all the information to help the members with any question that may come.

[Rainband]

I agree 100% Chad and cyc!!! Gulf...I ask alot of "stupid" questions too. I think it's important to ask questions to learn. The experts got where they are today by asking questions!!!!

[Anonymous]

"The only stupid questions are those that remain unasked." 8)

As Cyc stated, El Nino generally equals less hurricane activity, while La Nina usually causes increased hurricane activity. An El Nino will help increase wind shear (a big no-no for hurricane formation) over the tropical Atlantic, as well as supress the ITCZ (area of convection close to equator). A La Nina does the exact opposite; less shear and a more active ITCZ. Conversely, El Nino will increase the amount of high-latitude subtropical development, which is a big reason why we saw a lot of that occur last year. We typically see most of the activity occur in the low latitudes during a La Nina.

This year, we're in for neither of the two...or La Nina. So it's logical to thus expect more hurricane activity, especially in the low latitudes, this season. BUT, there are so many other factors that can, and have, canceled out ENSO. If all the other factors are inhibiting, 2003 could still be rather dull, even with a La Nina.

[ColdFront77]

I hope it is understood that we may not have answers to certain questions, weather and non-weather related.

[Rainband]

I hope it is understood that we may not have answers to certain questions, weather and non-weather related.

I hope nobody on here claims to know it all!!!!

[wx247]

Thanks for asking GulfBreezer. I needed clarification myself!!!

[ColdFront77]

That's right, Rainband.