Models agree on developing low off east coast

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Apr 30, 2003 9:50 am

http://152.80.49.210/CGI/PUBLIC/wxmap_l ... 2003043000

Here is the latest run of 12 utc of GFS that shows a low off the east coast.Other models haved been in agreement too like UKMET,AVN.

Ok guys dont jump rapidly to say that this will develop because it is highly unlikely it will be tropical because there is a good deal of shear but I will watch this unfold and see what the next runs from this and other models say.

If any other expert can bring other models to compare them and see what they say the members in storm2k will be grateful to see that information.

Rainband · #2 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Apr 30, 2003 9:57 am

Thanks!!! CYC :wink:

Anonymous · #3 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Apr 30, 2003 2:26 pm

The AVN, CMC, NOGAPS, and UKMET all show a substantial low develop off Georgia about 36 hours in advance. Most of the models seem to be in agreement with this one, at least so far.

One teeny-tiny problem though. If the low forms, it will almost certainly be extratropical. The models reflect this. No tropical/subtropical, no Bill.

chadtm80 · #4 Postby **chadtm80** » Wed Apr 30, 2003 2:28 pm

oh well... Something to watch anyway... I guess lol

Steve H. · #5 Postby **Steve H.** » Wed Apr 30, 2003 2:36 pm

Well, most of the forecasts develop this low near the GA/SC east coast and there's no real reason to doubt it. They don't develop it as a tropical system though. Being the time of year it is, it could have some warm core characteristics though. No surprise here :o

#6 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Apr 30, 2003 2:38 pm

Thanks Rob for bringing what other models are saying so this confirms that a low will form but shear is strong so nothing tropical will form from it but again NEVER SAY NEVER.

Anonymous · #7 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Apr 30, 2003 5:43 pm

The low will be nontropical.

#8 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Apr 30, 2003 5:55 pm

Yup that is the consensus.

Stormsfury · #9 Postby **Stormsfury** » Wed Apr 30, 2003 9:12 pm

Agreed with the consensus ... low forms due to baroclinicity.

chadtm80 · #10 Postby **chadtm80** » Thu May 01, 2003 3:34 pm

Models agree on developing low off east coast

Models agree on developing low off east coast

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