Low forming in GOM but not tropical

[cycloneye]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... tion=42041

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... tion=42001


The wind direction are not the same ENE and SSW at those 2 bouys and pressures are falling.But rain for sure will go to florida but I think no more than that in terms of a tropical system but this is the same system the models form a low off the east coast but not tropical or warm core.

Will it be warm core off the east coast? Well time will tell.

[chadtm80]

Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.87 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.05 in ( Falling )


Looks as though i may get some rain from GOM convection after all

[Rainband]

West central and southwest Florida forecast discussion


My hat is off to the GFS...pressure are falling across the central
Gulf. Showers and thunderstorms look like a good bet. In fact if
the GFS works out we will see a pretty nice low level jet out ahead
over a developing low...implying decent low level shear. I just can
not imagine pressure falling as fast as the GFS indicates so I will
hold off on mentioning any strong thunderstorms at this time. Heavy
rain does look like a good bet...but even with the heavy rain of last
week...flood potential does not look that bad.

[cycloneye]

Hummm interesting that discussion about the GFS but they not are so agressive as the GFS about a warm core tropical system in GOM.

[vbhoutex]

Without having looked at anything except your post and the sat pic Chad provided, I have a question for you Luis. Do you think this is a trend or the normal everyday beginning of pressure falls in the afternoon? Looks like yesterday, the bouys did the same thing only to come back up in pressure as usual. Is there anything else you see that makes you think this system could become a surface low?

[cycloneye]

Wind directions David in this instance are from diferent directions at 2 different bouys.Yes pressures fall more at afternoons but let's watch those bouys tonight to see what happens.

[Rainband]

[Steve H.]

Yes, as the temperatures go up in the afternoon, the pressures do drop as the heat rises, and counters the pressure of the atmosphere on the earth. AVN and NOGAPS at 12Z both show the low pressure forming off Daytona then heading NE, then a second low pressure coming off the Carolina coast and deepening, with the NOGAPS really cranking the second low. Either way, I hope I get rain

[Anonymous]

The low will not become subtropical or tropical. The low is still in the mid to upper levels. An upper level trough will absorb the disturbance in the western Atlantic.

[chadtm80]

Good Point.. PARTY POOPER :bad-words: :fishslap: LOL J/K

[cycloneye]

Flood watches are posted for portions of south florida and that will be the sure thing from this.

[ColdFront77]

The area of convection in the Gulf of Mexico today looks more impressive in some ways then yesterday's. The length of time it existed today is longer than yesterday as well. Another big item of interest; the convection is moving more easterly, compared to yesterday southeasterly movement.

Rain and thunderstorms chances for central Florida are running 40 to 60 percent with this system tonight and tomorrow. A relatively rare event for Florida.

[Rainband]

Doesn't the stronger part of the feature seem to be drifting south..within the complex itself??

[Stormsfury]

Doesn't the stronger part of the feature seem to be drifting south..within the complex itself??

It's spreading that way due to right-turning (divergence aloft) plus some backbuilding (along the inflow jet on its SW tail) - and ridge-riding (rounding the zenith of an anticyclonic circulation)